New report shows how many jobs could be lost under $15 minimum wage
This report is from the CBO (Congressional Budget Office) and states that 1M low wage earners could loose their jobs if the $15/hr. Federal Minimum Wage is adopted.
This appears not to bother the Democrats. Their statement is "Benefits outweigh the minuses".
I don't see how 1M people loosing their jobs is a small thing . Even if we forget the human cost to those loosing their jobs, the economic coae of that number loosing their jobs is horrendous. If these people earned 20k a year that is 20B out of the economy. if you assume a multiplier effect of 3, this is 60B out of the economy. a non-trivial impact somewhere.
This appears not to bother the Democrats. Their statement is "Benefits outweigh the minuses".
I don't see how 1M people loosing their jobs is a small thing . Even if we forget the human cost to those loosing their jobs, the economic coae of that number loosing their jobs is horrendous. If these people earned 20k a year that is 20B out of the economy. if you assume a multiplier effect of 3, this is 60B out of the economy. a non-trivial impact somewhere.
Many years ago, I went to Russia. I noticed how backwards everything was (1994), BUT how EDUCATED the people were, and how much they were becoming like Americans (motivated by a chance to do better).
My buddy just got back. He said Google in Russia was telling him how many minutes before the train arrived, SIMPLY because he was at the train station.
The Near Field Communication (RFID chips in the credit cards) drive the process of payment on the buses and trains. Human interactions are down.
He admitted that in the old days NOBODY wanted a service job and nobody got fired, so service was horrible (everywhere, equally). Now, because of automation, you don't deal with people. WHEN you do, he said it appears "They want those jobs". He said the quick trip into a Federal Building to get a stamp was done in 15 minutes.
He was blown away. He grew up in Russia, and was happy to come here as a Computer Programmer. (One of the best I have ever met, BTW. I hired him. We co-authored an Excel compatible spreadsheet engine for an application I designed. He wrote the formula compiler and I designed the optimizing Recalculation Engine. He implemented all of it).
Anyways, I predicted these jobs would go to Kiosks. When they get better at the Kiosks, the jobs will go away. You will need 3 people to operate a FUTURE McDonalds 24x7. And that is 3 shifts of 8hrs to clean/stock and keep an eye on the machines.
There is not ONE part of McDonalds that cannot be automated away, once the machines are stocked/maintained.
Yes. It's like the horse and buggy.
I am the grim reaper of jobs.
I walk in, and I can visualize the number of people who will not be working!
I have seen one shipping company go from 150 people to 15 with straight forward software upgrades!
2 people, full-time, entering invoices. 90% of which are emailed in! (they were printing them, instead of a second monitor, LOL).
Now the ones that are mailed in, are opened (were before), scanned, and emailed.
All of the emails are processed by sender/subject coding and attachments.
Parsed, read by computers, and input into the system automatically. Any invoices above certain numbers get flagged and reviewed, and new invoices from new senders are rerouted, analyzed and put into the configuration.
Once they "get it", it goes fast. Sometimes I hate my job. I know some real nice people who have had to uproot their lives.
But I also know at least 3 companies that would have went under without the software we developed. They were able to reduce staff, in some cases by 30-50%, and keep the company profitable.
In fact, HERE is my suggestion to McDonalds (and all Fast Food Kiosks Designers):
Credit Card swipe FIRST (even at the drive through).
Pull up their recent orders, let them click to repeat them, let them STAR the ones they want at the top.
Put a QR code on the receipt that lets the cell phone, if they know the CC #, access the information, and configure it for faster access.
Reducing the interaction to:
- Swipe
- Click Order
- Click Done
- For 90% of transactions
BTW, you want to suggestive sell? Offer them an AMAZING Deal: "BTW, you have never tried our Chocolate Shake. Add one for $1 now as a thank you for being a Kiosk user"...
Other suggestions should be there as check boxes (upsize this fry, this drink, this order).
THEN, allow the APP to do this from the car, while you are ENROUTE to the McDonalds!
This is all too easy.
Additional Human interaction? Negative. You are pushing the cashiers job to the client, like ATMs did.
Finally, those 2 lane ordering windows. IMAGINE a 3rd lane for APP Orders that go to the head of the line!
Now the sense of competition will drive people to the app, giving more time to make the food, reducing waste, etc.
Just some thoughts...
Too bad I don't work with the fast food companies...
I have thought a good kiosk designer will make a lot of money. The market is ripe.
A couple of issues in what you raise:
1) Some people still pay by cash cause they cant get bank accounts or credit cards.
2) Most people re-order the same thing if they are alone. Using an identifier like email address could speed this up a lot.
3) The remembering of typical orders could include the modifiers like customization (good example is Subway of Five Guys)
4) I would never order before I get to the drive thru or the restaurant. I just DONT TRUST THAT THE ORDER WOULD MAKE IT THRU THE SYSTEM RIGHT.
5) I hate the McDonalds procedure of placing the order at one drive thru kiosk with a moron who cant get the oder right, then paying at another place, then finding out that the food is not ready and to go to a waiting area until its done. I dont go to McDonalds ANY MORE because of this.
6) I like the offers of the chocolate shake for $$ off instead of the midless suggest selling. I always tell the moron that if I wanted what they are pushing I WOULD HAVE ORDERED IT.
7) Meanwhile, the fast food company managements are stuck in some la-la land thinking- afraid to try anything new like these suggestions.
About the cash. It is becoming less and less. And it can work for cash, but this is where COIN and BlockChain come into play. People will cash their checks into an app...
In Russia, For example, we MUST pay employees by putting money onto their debit/credit card! (It's a debit card, and then switches to a credit card when they run out of money. BANK gets all the interest/fees).
But cash would be:
- Cash Order
- Enter Order or your customer QR Code, or a QR Code from a previous order
- Finish with the screen
- Go to the SLOW LINE
- Fumble through your pennies
Where I live. VERY FEW people pay cash.
But I live in a pretty POSH place, admittedly.
We don't strive to improve the workflow process of someone who cannot use credit cards, or pay with a phone. Why bother? They are the 2-3% at this point. Probably less...
I think there are a LOT of people who are reluctant to try automated ordering because its new, they are not sure they will do it right, or afraid that they will get big charges they cant fix.
I have seen some real morons trying to order fast food when they dont even know what they want- they have trouble even communicating with a person, let alone a computer.
I live in Las Vegas, and cash is still used. There are a lot of non-tourists here who are lets say less than prosperous, and dont have bank account or credit cards.
I suspect that we in the USA are behind the times on these things. From what I understand, one can pay with AliPay (Alibaba) in China for most things using cell phones. While we are importing all sorts of undesirable "asylum seekers" and spending our resources on them, we are falling behind the rest of the world.
I applaud what you do actually. Having unnecessary human workers is really stupid and just costs us more. We should take in only merit based immigrants who actually can fit in and get more advanced jobs here. History has been filled with millions of improvements to reduce the amount of work humans have to do. I do think in the future, though, that the typical level of intelligence and training needed to compete with the robots in the workforce will rise to the point where these migrants wont find jobs, except at very low wages.
It is only is only about bagging votes for the Jackass Party.
This identical lust for power is behind Soros and others funding the illegal immigrants storming our southern borders and lib state and city governments creating sanctuary cities.
If you make below 15/hr you are LIKELY not paying ANY income tax. If you start making that much, you suddenly have a tax burden, from both the employer and the employee that is more significant.
And finally, these increases will lead to higher prices, which will lead to higher state sales tax for the same things we buy today.
NEVER forget the goal is tax dollars coming in. And in the end, this is what they will get more of, as we get squeezed for their bad decisions!
Thanks for telling Scotty to beam me up.
If a worker is having trouble with inflation, that's his SIGNAL to get off his butt and become more valuable to his employer, who will reward him for increasing productivity/whatever he is selling. If the employer doesn't reward him, then the employee has learned something new to take to a different and better employer....one who will pay him according to the value he produces to the second employer's company. He has the choice to decide whether to accept the new prospective employer's offer.
This way, everybody gets a choice. Employee can sit around and do nothing, and the employer has the CHOICE to pay him accordingly. Or, if the employee doesn't like that, he can either get better/work harder, or go find a new employer.
It's a vicious circle that will eventually have a very bad ending.
One thing that stands out to me is that min wage adn the free market wage for unskilled labor have stayed the same (in real terms), while GDP grown. Return on investment has gone up while the price of unskilled labor stagnated. People use this as justification for socialism and authoritarianism. If the market price for unskilled work had risen as fast as GDP, a $15 min wage would be moot because it would be lower than the market price. People don't like this fact and wonder who's to blame. The answer is no one. Most things in the world are getting better. There's no reason to expect every parameter in the economy to change the way someone would like it to. My point in all this is we (rational) people should face these facts while arguing against gov't intrusions (e.g. min wage) as a solution.
As a policy measure, there should be no minimum wage laws at all. Thomas Sowell has numerous pieces explaining why such laws hurt the very people the politicians claim to help. The basics are that what you are doing is saying that unless your labor is worth the minimum wage, you will be blocked by the politicians from holding a job in the first place!
I would also like to address one other point you made, that "min wage adn the free market wage for unskilled labor have stayed the same (in real terms), while GDP grown. Return on investment has gone up while the price of unskilled labor stagnated." Why is that? I would argue that it is because the minimum wage was actually set higher than the real value of those jobs. The so-called "stagnation" was just the unseen real price of labor below the artificial floor set by law.
Yes
"The so-called "stagnation" was just the unseen real price of labor below the artificial floor set by law."
Exactly
"caught in the trap set up for them by politicians."
I think this one part is completely false, but it's academic. The gov't wants a third of what you make sent it quarterly. The CPI is actually a good way to index the rates, a good way to keep you sending in a third, and to keep the poor sending in nothing. I'm not saying the goal is good, but the CPI works reasonably well.
This approach morphed into providing the full needs of the unskilled worker thus perpetuating the lack of skills and advancement. This in turn created dependencies of the politicians and government programs and so on in a never ending cycle.
+1.
If your labor isn't worth that, no one can profitably hire you. And I don't care how profitable a company is, it still is bad business to hire people who subtract from the bottom line.