New Cold War?
Posted by fivedollargold 10 years, 4 months ago to Politics
American policy toward Russia has been a disaster since the fall of the Soviet regime. Instead of embracing a former enemy, one with ten thousand nuclear warheads, multiple U.S. presidents fed into the Russians worst fear by expanding NATO, when it would have been prudent to let the former Warsaw Pact countries become buffer states. Our current president, the One, ratcheted up Russian distrust of the West, and specifically America, both in word and deed. A promise not to attach Libya in exchange for Russian help at the UN was broken with our planes bombing Khaddafi's forces into submission. The One then draws red lines for Russia's ally, Syria, because of alleged use of chemical weapons (remember Bush II?), which brings Russia into the mix in order to broker a deal. Of course, Syria remains a mess and the One is requesting millions in aid to rebels whose goal is to overthrow Assad, Russia's friend. This brings us to the Ukraine. Russia was willing to live with a Ukraine with one foot in the West and one foot pointed East, but the One said "no," Ukraine must choose a side. A Russia-friendly president was forced out and replaces with Western-centric leadership. The prospect of Ukraine joining NATO was too much for Putin. Had he not acted in Crimea and then in Eastern Ukraine, his own tenure as Russian leader would be jeopardized. The shooting down of an airliner by Russian surrogates was incredibly stupid, but not unprecedented. Remember KAL-007? $5Au lost a friend on that flight. The Soviets couldn't control actions everywhere in their empire then, and they can't do so now. Putin's response to the loss of life in the recent air disaster was tactless at best and cruel at worst. (He should have ordered his surrogates to cooperate fully with recovery operations.) So, now we have the One threatening terrible sanctions against Russia (terrible? really?) and recently making a bizarre speech insulting Russia much the same way he does Republicans. One would that his briefers would at least give him up to date facts. The One made several factual errors, some of which were probably correct a decade ago. For instance, the comment that Russia is losing population. Nope. They have been gaining, largely due to immigration. In fact, Russia is second in the world in receiving immigration after the U.S. Another gem from the One, "Russia doesn't make anything." They don't produce iPads for sure, but without their Soyuz capsule and rockets no Americans would be going to the International Space Station. Canada buys Russian heavy trucks. The One also stated that "men in Russia only live to age 60." Sorry. It's 65.5. Perhaps the One misread his teleprompter on that one. With the Ukrainian army having success recently in pushing back the rebels, does anyone seriously think that Putin will allow his surrogates to be driven back to Russia? It is only a matter of time before he provided heavier weapons, and most likely, mercenaries to aid his buddies. The main point $5Au is attempting to get across is that we live in a very dangerous time. The One is faced with a situation on Russia's border not all of his making, but he has made it far worse. Geography favors Russia. It is unlikely the One or our NATO allies will intervene directly in the Ukraine. However, if deadlier arms are sent to the Ukrainian government, the Russians will one-up us on their side. It is a situation the West cannot win and attempting to do so will only result in thousands of unnecessary deaths. The best we can hope to accomplish is to broker a deal to divide the Ukraine. The Ukrainians will balk at first, but faced with the prospect of the Russian bear completely decimating their country, they may just listen to reason.
Secondly, the Russian Spetsnaz and other GRU units have never stopped doing nasty stuff to undermine the West. I recall the poisoning of Ukrainian presidential candidate Viktor Yushchenko back in 2004 and the fraud of Yanukovych's election. Then again in the poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko in the UK in 2006. They seem to like the image of a slow tortured death for their opponents.
Your analysis of the One is spot on. What ever does the most damage to American standing in the world or to the just cause of individual liberty and freedom, the One will be the championing that destructive position.
The good news about exported Russian technology is that if the trucks are built like their fighter aircraft, they are total crap. They can still shoot down undefended airliners, but they will likely kill more of their own pilots than we could shoot down. Most of their technology is knock off ( stolen) copies of ours. Some of their SAMs are pretty good until you put some music ( jamming ) in the air. Still good against a defenseless
, non maneuvering Boeing 777 at 35,000 feet.
But I digress.
Thanks for posting your analysis.
Cheers
Cheers.