‘There’s no stopping it,’ warns Ron Paul: A ‘calamity’ could cut this market in half
Posted by freedomforall 7 years, 1 month ago to Business
“The correction is going to be huge, and I don’t think anybody can predict, but I think this correction we had in ‘08 and ‘09 wasn’t allowed to really go its course and restore some sensibility to the market,” he explained to CNBC. “I think that’ll be a mild correction to what could happen.”
Now after10,000 points higher his prediction stays the same. Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn over time. The regulations Trump has eased and the corp tax rate slashed provides for greater cash flow and a much more competitive position for US companies. Don't forget the country is not being sold out any longer. The storm is on the corrupt
And FINALY we have a pro American Pres. With more working and not sucking from the teet of entitlements the deficit can be attacked. Bush and Obamas spending created the
Huge deficit it maybe too large to have a soft landing but I like Trumps approach much better than His predecessors.
I find people spend more time saving a couple hundred bucks buying a car than the due understanding the investments they make.
ˆt has always bothered me that the stock price has little relation to the actual value of the company when it sells at 17 times annual earnings when a private company might sell for 5 times earnings. It strikes me as a gambling thing at that point.
I, too, am waiting for the correction with baited breath.
It's nice to have a pro-American, Pro-American business President in office.
What does "allowed" mean?
That government, or the reserve, or some conspirators intervened to stop the market dropping? I reckon that to stop a panic on Wall St would be beyond even Soros.
So, I follow the argument but, if the logic is right, why did it not happen 5 years ago? The golden years of Fed money creation was during the prev regime, now the Fed chair is talking tighter money, ok it is only talk so far, but could be an trigger for the panic 5 years overdue .
Anyone who says I do not understand macroeconomics is right, I blame it on grad school Keynsianism mushing my head.
Damn right it was a conspiracy! An obvious conspiracy since 1913 for anyone willing to open his eyes, analyze the evidence, and think. The market has been manipulated for the entire time.
Disclaimer: I’ve never owned Amazon stock
Without people trading shares, today’s hugely successful, productive and innovative corporation called, Amazon would not exist, thus not produce anything.
Share prices are continually manipulated to destroy the value and wrest control of small caps from their owners.
Amazon could easily exist as a large private company without trading shares at all. Wall St hates private companies because they can't easily steal control from the owners.
The best and most probably scenario is the crisis prompts us to take action, we partly fix the problems, and partly kick the can down the road. The worse case is how Germany degenerated into a fascist state. (We will not let the worse case happen.) The scenario where letting the problems go leads to a great flood wiping away decadence leaving behind the righteous Noahs and Utnapishtims of the world is a form of denial.
There's no shortcut to just starting now to fix the problems. Ron Paul is correct.
Anyway, the market isn't make a lot of sense. And, it hasn't for a long time. I use a method of trend following that ignores the noise. And, I also think we should have a big correction soon - we're overdo. Want to see something funny? Look at a graph of the S&P 500 up to and through the Trump election. Pretty funny...
I used to disagree on principal with Ron Paul in that I think fractional reserve banking is a good thing, really a beautiful thing where people put their money in the bank, which lends it out to the next person with a good idea to create wealth, and the money supply expands with all the good ideas out there to invest in. Ron Paul says even politicians who campaign on tight fiscal/monetary policy invariably want loose policy once in office. That's happening right now, making me start to change my mind. Maybe a central bank is great in theory, like the concept of a wise benevolent dictator, that is impractical.
I did not follow your observation the presidential election and the stock market, but in any case I think the connection is overstated. It's a noisy system, like the distribution of clouds or stars in the sky. Pareidolia makes us see patterns in the noise. In my world, it appears as "AWGN", but the random walk is everywhere. I do NOT dismiss the idea, though, that big elections can affect market psychology. I just think excessive debt is the huge elephant in the room and rational market participants are not fired up about politics.
tldr; Our open policy of living beyond our means, is a bigger problem than clandestine market manipulation.
As for the election, you have to look at the SP500 for just a couple months around the election. I had positioned myself for a Hillary win and had to lick my wounds for a week while I repositioned.
You can tell more about the outcome outlook from things like shipping companies # of overnight shipment or Caterpiller's orders for machinery. Politicians hardly move the needle.
Politicians move the needle a lot. Especially with marginally-legal public statements. They have their buddies short a stock then put out a public statement about some company's pricing/greed, or question their accounting practices, or (in the case of the cankled one) even threaten to investigate the company.
I see nothing at all. I have a lousy track record with stocks. My masters is in pulling weak signals out of electronic noise and I follow the markets casually, but I suck at market predictions. I can't even guess what you might be seeing, much less if it's correlated with any world events. It looks like a slow structure creation of value over the decades plus a lot of AWGN to me.
Oh, and everybody sucks at market predictions...haha. All we can do is identify what's happening (or try to), apply a little history, pay attention to current affairs, and hope a black swan doesn't show. Media is full of articles and interviews of experts calling for this or that...