Is there a shortage of viable jobs that will cause a lot more hardship in the future?
Posted by Jstork 7 years, 5 months ago to Philosophy
I saw some statistics that showed the increase of service based jobs and the decrease of resource based or productivity based jobs over the past decades. I think this is a dangerous trend that will eventually lead to mass hardship. This is a multifaceted issue that has many different causes and potential solutions. I look forward to hearing your thoughts and lessons.
https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes51...
If there were a shortage, wages would rise to attract more people to the work.
(More to follow.)
Some of that is "Spanish culture" because until America was invented in the 19th century, what else would anyone do, except what their parents did? Read the biographies of European savants whose fathers saw no use whatever it was the young genius was pursuing.
Expecting "the education system to produce these skills" is to reduce human beings to factory outputs. I am sure that you did not intend that kind of a Soviet view of the problem.
By comparison, in an article on the value of college humanities classes, it seems (no surprise) that some lawyers reported a value in drama classes. However, the article quoted a lawyer who found it a waste of time.
You had a great shop class program. Mine was not-so-great. The final outcomes however were up to us.
I stand by my initial statements. It is not the business of public education to produce skilled workers for the jobs of the moment. It has to be more general than that because the future makes new demands.
I agree with you that some education in mechanical arts is helpful. The same is true of music, drama, and sports, as well as literature. I am a professional writer, but I got through high school literature with Classics Illustrated comics. Still, literature is as important as shop and music. (I had four semesters of chorale and three semesters of French horn. Twice a year from 3rd grade to 12th we attended children's concerts by the Cleveland Orchestra. I can read music. And earlier this year, I was awarded a medal for composing a march for my state guard. I just wrote the lyrics. The real musician did the heavy lifting.)
Some time back, in a similar discussion of our high school shop classes. I said that I was never encouraged at it. Shop classes were for kids going to work in factories. I was in the college bound tracks. However... the public schools of my time did not see me 25 years later having to disassemble and reassemble a 6-axis robot in order to write the maintenance manual. It took me two years. In the mean time, I taught operations and programming.
Then, there were the kids in the 1960s who took typing. I did not. Back then, it was, at best, a convenience, unless you were going to be a secretary in an office. That speaks to the problem with expecting schools of the present to produce what we will need in the future. After 10 years of two-fingered keyboarding, I got a typing tutor program for my IBM-PC. I still do not follow the rules, but I have good speed. And it is all over the keyboard because typing classes in 1965 did not include Function keys, Page Up, CTL-ALT-DEL (only Shift), and an integral numeric keypad...
Again, you cannot plan Soviet-style to crank out millions of workers to do the work of tomorrow, but I do applaud your skills in mechanical arts.
As I said elsewhere I became a programmer mainly for chemical making and manufacturing systems. I was very good at what I did and was in demand where I worked initially and then later as an independent contractor. A large part of the reason for that success was having a good understanding of real world systems and behavior, which began in exploratory shops. I call it 4D thinking (3D + time), which you don't get from the liberal arts. 4D thinking for me was virtually intuitive by the time I got out of high school because of combining the various shop experiences along with all the other subjects (side note: by the time you understand what's going on when you melt metal to cast a part, the workings of an engine, and the workings of a motor/generator set, then taking a physics course the following year was a breeze - not to mention college courses much later). Those shops weren't to indoctrinate us into a "Soviet-style" factory-bot, they were there to give us an idea of how the real world worked by actually experiencing pieces of it. I've met a lot of good programmers and some not so good, but in my branch of the programming universe it seems the best ones were the ones that understood how the real world worked before they learned to code.
I believe that I underscored the value in a complete education. And I tried to make it clear that my school system let me down by undervaluing the very shop classes that they required me to take. I am sorry that you and I are having a hard time getting on the same page (an allusion to music).
Your "4D Thinking" is unique to you. It might be teachable, but I suspect not. It can be learned but not taught. Entrepreneurship is like that, too: somewhat ineffable because you have to experience it from the inside.
Liberal arts is not just the humanities. Liberal education is the humanities plus the sciences. Mathematics is a liberal art. In the eponymous book by Mark Van Doren, he begins with the Trivium and the Quadrivium: Grammar, Rhetoric, and Logic; Arithmetic, Geometry, Music, and Astronomy.
I agree that the best programmers know the substantive literature of their subjects. I cite that from Joseph Weizenbaum when I speak to software user groups on "Documentation for Developers." (I got into technical writing from computer programming.) It is a problem evidence by "compulsive programming" when coders start designing from the keyboard. You have to think it through better than that. You call it "4D Thinking."
I have given that talk several times since 2013. Here is the original set of slides. (I went back and annotated them for Slideshare.)
https://www.slideshare.net/michaelmar...
"We know from measurable results that police officers with college degrees both make more traffic stops, and yet have fewer negative interactions with the public: they work harder and better. But college classes in criminology do not teach traffic stops or public relations. Something else is engaged." -- The Economic Value in a Liberal Education on my blog, here:
http://necessaryfacts.blogspot.com/20...
I enjoyed the slide show and wish I was able to see it presented in person. Anyway, much of the advice in the presentation I already knew and was following decades ago, which is likely why I've been a successful programmer. Essentially, plan before you program! Interesting about the Declaration Of Independence being a level 18 document. I wouldn't have guessed, but maybe I shouldn't have been surprised because I have some 19th century text books in my library and I'm sure the eighth grade English grammar text would stymie high school seniors today. Gosh, some of it might even stymie a high school English teacher today, LOL! I wonder if the grading process of the grading program would be different if its data base only had 18th and 19th (at least pre-radio-TV) works as a comparison for grade expectation.
The blog link was a nice read, but I'm running out of time here and had to move over it rather quickly. One part that jumped out at me was the part where the colleges may be behind the invention curve (steam engine paragraph). Since I was a programmer (software) in the late '70s I figured I would attend night school at our community college to get some digital electronics (hardware) theory to augment my career and actually got asked to give a few lectures on how to program the "new" microchips - by that time I'd already written thousands of lines of assembler for the new chip sets. It was a fun time and I was only in my 20s.
The police officers... "Something else is engaged" would be interesting to know what it is. Perhaps the background that enabled them to get to college in the first place had a bearing.
Automation is everywhere in manufacturing also
I think that government regulations are the cause of a lot of current jobs springing up. Paper pushing, dealing with complex laws and the litigious society. Health care is replete with useless work being done by humans to keep all sorts of records to prevent malpractice claims.
When you buy a service you buy the most precious thing on Earth: your own time. See my comment in this thread https://www.galtsgulchonline.com/post...
I agree with you that most government regulations - what you call "paper pushing" - represent a deadweight loss to the economy. That said, keeping track of medical records via automated information processing is not just a sop thrown to the insurance lobby. Medical records are the foundation for primary care. Everyone of us is unique. Your medical record is your life record, literally and truly.
Maybe other things we commonly call services will be performed by robots in the future too, like cashiers, order takers, waitresses, etc. truly creative things may eventually be taken over more and more by robots that learn on their own. In the meantime we humans have to compete with each other and robot science to remain visble
I look forward to kiosks at fast food restaurants, the elimination of servers in restaurants who expect tips. All automation has to do is be slightly better and more concenient than the human it replaces, and cost less overall. Bring em on.
Also, in China, they do not have a problem firing bad workers and they do not have (as far as I could tell) a predatory and litigious legal system that treats such firings as a possible "win the lottery" scenario.
I don't deny that world trade has taken us very far. But nefarious actors can cut trade off. Pirates are an obvious offender. So would be an enemy power.
To the extent we do not have resourced-based jobs in this country, we remain vulnerable in case the Global Elite should decide to declare war against America.
"In the Middle Ages, if you could evade your manor lord for a year within the city walls, you were free. On the other hand, everyone was expected to contribute to the defense of the city. Men who work for a living have no time for training, so the city depended on firearms for protection: easy to use and devastating against an attacker." (In other words, America is one big medieval city, a place full of strangers with guns.)
Also, humans are rational by definition, if you understand what "rational" means in the technical sense. That other people do make the same choices you would is a different issue entirely.
First, everyone commenting seems to be relatively well educated - most probably have college degrees. Nothing wrong with that. But it seems to me that in talking about "viable jobs" we should not be dwelling on jobs for computer programmers, or infrastructure designers, or physicists. We should be thinking about jobs that will pay a wage that allows the worker to support his family and buy the things that family needs without government give-away social programs.
Second, our primary education system - grades 1 through 12 - should give our kids the very basic skills they will need in the future - math, science, English skills, history, geography, civics, and a dabbling of humanities, art, music, etc. Instead it teaches diversity, inclusion, relativism, white guilt, and on and on. In short, it has become an institution of social engineering and political correctness.
Our secondary education system - colleges - should provide a basis in specific disciplines for students to understand the theoretical principles and practices for each of those disciplines. But instead it has become an intense study in social engineering, political correctness, and in some cases anarchism.
Neither of these systems actually provide what students will need to do a job. That comes with time and experience.
Finally, manufacturing jobs and/or trade skills are taken away as a result of the jobs moving overseas, or hiring illegals, or subbing the work out to companies outside the US. US workers are left with burger flipping, house cleaning, lawn mowing, or other "service industry" minimum wage jobs. OK. So now we are looking at replacing the service sector minimum wage workers with robots. McDonalds is already experimenting with robotic burger flippers.
Let's say this all happens. So what, pray tell, will the average person do to make a living for themselves and their families? Really??!!!
served by a person rather than by a machine. But
perhaps the businesses have been finding that they
cannot afford the human employees, even if it got them a little more business. Instituting lais-
sez-faire and getting rid of the minimum wage
might do some good in such areas. But if it takes too long, perhaps many employers would never return to having the human employees, even if they could afford it; they might think they could still better afford the robots.
The American capitalist system has worked because historically workers worked at jobs in industries that payed enough for the workers to be able to buy the goods they produced. That started coming to an end in the 70s and 80s when corporations decided that profit margins could be improved by moving manufacturing overseas, paying workers $5 a day, and paying to ship the goods back to the US. So good paying jobs for those with less than college degrees over the last 30 years have disappeared, and now many with college degrees are having a harder and harder time finding a job that will actually pay the bills. Never mind that the current generation is the first generation carrying huge student loan debts to get those degrees.
40% of Americans are on some kind of government assistance. 45% are on food stamps!! That alone should tell you how bad the availability of "viable jobs" really is. They simply do not exist, and unless we can get manufacturing back into the US we can look forward to a future of McJobs for everyone.
(I have never taken welfare or unemployment)
And the claim that wages should be enough to let workers buy the goods they make was one of original Cliches of Socialism from FEE in the 1950s, addressing an idea from the generation previous to that. So, it goes back long before the 70s and 80s.
As for the other points about food stamps, etc., that is a different problem. I understand and appreciate your intention on the point, but you might as well start out by claiming that we are all so poor that we have to use public streets and roads because we cannot afford personal air vehicles -- and you would be right. Socialism causes poverty and absent socialism, we'd be living the Jetsons Future right now.
But a call for a return to American manufacturing is really like calling for a return to the individual tradesman, the tailor, the tinker, the cook, the baker. Those trades all exist - as does manufacturing - but not as it was done in 1500.
After World War II, American manufacturing was the envy of the world. My father worked at GE's Appliance Park in Louisville, KY, which at one time employed over 22,000 workers in three shifts around the clock, and was the largest appliance manufacturing plant in the world. Wages there were good for the time, and enabled everyone working there to buy a refrigerator, or stove or air conditioner produced there. Today that plant is all but closed, with only about 500 jobs remaining, as most of the jobs there have been shipped to Mexico. Thanks NAFTA.
And why did this happen? Corporate greed, pure and simple. And the same has happened in virtually every industry in the US. Look at Detroit, the world leader in auto production 50 years ago. Japanese and Korean auto makers didn't kill off the jobs there. Their entry into the market reduced the Big 3's market share to be sure, but the greatest impact on Detroit has been due to auto makers shipping their jobs to foreign countries for low wages, fewer government regulations, and bigger profit margins.
Not all of the workers in Detroit in its heyday were "educated" as we think of it today. Ford imported workers from Eastern Europe by the thousands, trained them in their jobs, and even set up mandatory English classes for them to learn the language. But all Detroit auto makers hired and trained local labor, most of whom did not have much beyond an 8th grade education, if that.
Today corporations do not hire such people, unless their business involves fast food, yard maintenance, cleaning services, or similar. Even then, these workers are competing with the cheaper, often under the table, labor of illegal aliens, mostly from Mexico and Latin America. Don't believe it? Just look at the construction industry that I worked in for 40 years. 75-80% of workers on most large job sites today are illegals working for contractors or sub-contractors. The American tradesmen who used to have these jobs are nowhere to be found. On one job I worked on that employed 400 construction workers, word got out that ICE would be visiting the site the following day. 300 of the 400 workers called in sick the next day. FACT!
My call for a return to manufacturing in the US is no call for a return to the 1500s. Yes, there is a need for tradesmen in this country. In fact, there is a shortage of tradesmen. But everybody has been told for so long that the only way to get ahead is with a college degree that the $25/hr carpentry or plumbing jobs go wanting for lack of applicants. And if American companies can pull out of Cleveland (I know there was no iPhone plant there), move their plant to China, and train Chinese workers to produce iPhones (which is what Apple has actually done), then why can't Apple go to Marietta GA, or Compton, CA, or Zanesville OH, and train the locals there how to make them? Again, lower wages and less government regulation.
Jobs by manufacturers like Apple, where a worker can be trained into a well paying job is the key to getting the American people back to work, especially those with limited education or job skills. Bringing these jobs back can be done, but we must decide if we want jobs, or do we want to reduce emissions from 0.03 parts per billion to 0.02 parts per billion.
Finally, the issue of 45% of Americans being on food stamps is not only NOT a different problem, it is the very result of McJobs NOT being able to pay a wage that people - especially those with limited education and skills - can pay their bills and feed their families on. Our corporate culture has decided that if they cannot hire workers at minimum wage (and they can't as long as government benefits amount to more than any minimum wage job), then they will hire illegals who will work for less than minimum wage, or if they are manufacturers will ship their jobs overseas where they only pay $5 a day or less for labor.
I am no socialist. But I am sick to death of corporations who say that their dividends and the price of their stock is their only concern, and those who work for them (or the country) be damned. I know that's the case because I worked for big corporations whose view was precisely that.
See wages across skills here:
http://panam1901.org/visiting/salarie...
See these union wages from 1911:
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/scribd/...
30 cents per hour is about $3 per day.
One early model of the Ford included in the back seat a rack for a Burroughs adding machine. Both firms were local to Detroit. The idea was that the business man could do office work while being driven by his chauffeur.
Storo's cliche about workers being paid enough to buy the product is fine for bread and shoes - and maybe was a benchmark for an automobile that was cheap enough to sell in mass markets, versus being a mere oddity or novelty, which is what is was at the time, but that thesis was exploded 50 years ago in Cliches of Socialism from FEE.
There was a time when Bell Telephone and hundreds of other smaller firms hired thousands of operators. Now, it is all automated. We are our own telephone switching offices, setting up video conferences on our own phones.
The announcement that service sector jobs will eclipse manufacturing jobs is as old as the curves on the graphs. We have known this for decades.
And yet, if you look at the average American home workshop, you will find inexpensive yet sophisticated power tools: saws, routers, lathes, ... and tools that did not exist a lifetime ago: my wife is building a home security system with little computers and little cameras and little switches and gates and most of it without wires...
3-D printing is still just opening up. Each home can make what it wants -- unless, of course, you browse Amazon and find another home making one like it but better and cheaper. All commerce is service.
When I wrote this, I was thinking of some what we call developing nations and some of the problems I saw there. I spent a bit of time in congested, highly populated urban areas where poverty was rampant. Significant portions of the population were struggling to attain the basic essentials and keep a roof over their head. The only way many could feed themselves was through a functionally unregulated economy where you could do whatever you wanted to make a couple of dollars. The resale of cheap products along with many "service jobs" such as bicycle taxis, hairdressers, store service employees was prevalent. In spite of this, there was a lot of poverty.
In smaller municipalities, away from the
larger cities, there was less poverty/destitution as well as less congestion. Mote jobs were tied to farming, resources and manufacturing of products. Less jobs such as hairdressers, store clerks, and miscellaneous item resale.
I think I see trends like this in the "developed world" and wonder if we are headed the way of many of the larger, congested urban centers of "developing nations."
I am beginning to think overpopulation is one of the main factors along with others.
Thoughts.
The primary driver for the creation of the modern city was migration from the country. (The first cities were successful hunting camps. In their abundance, they began growing grains but needed more room for it, so farming was taken out of the city. See Jane Jacobs on The Economy of Cities. Cities did not evolve from farming villages. Also, it still continues, actually. I wrote a paper on farming within megacities today for a graduate geography class.)
The point of that here is that your view of their poverty is relative to your own wealth. They have a better life than they would on farms, otherwise, they would leave the city. Few people do that. I
I also believe that people are the most precious resource on the planet. It is hard to imaging how there could be "too many." At then end of the last ice age, a tribe of 300 might have a genius born once every three generations. Progress is much faster now because we have numerically more geniuses.
The old definition of city was a town with a cathedral.
Growth of settlements can be from many causes- entrepot, location for transport and military, a market center in a rich agricultural hinterland, a major employer of labor, this last would depend on potential for resources and transport, and so
on.
Now the point about the factory town attracting workers from agriculture as better pay was available, a valid argument.
But at that time the new factory worker has little choice. In Europe and especially the UK, manufacturing took off in the same era as the enclosure of land, and widespread eviction by the feudal land owners of people whose ancestors lived on the land for generations but without legal title.
Manufacturing via the industrial revolution enabled survival of many who would otherwise have starved due to the 'Enclosure Act'. You could say that capitalism stepped in to fix the problems of feudalism, once again.
There is food for thought here- what is a property right? Who had the title paper, who worked the land, yes conditions in those factories were horrible, but so was agricultural work in those days, surely better than starvation. Neither the land owners nor the factory owners cared, but the factory owners provided a life line.
When you buy a service, you are buying back the most precious thing on Earth: your own time. It is like pushing the grave a little bit farther back.
Also, I know what you intended in the vernacular sense of "intrinsic value." But there is no such thing. All values are relative and set by the buyer. The most exquisite vase has no value if no one wants it.
The public library is a service. It replaces a market in buying and reselling books, re-wholesaling and re-retailing repeatedly. And my wife prefers to borrow ebooks, which are wholly immaterial, but a valuable service nonetheless. And the unemployed book reader person who comes to your home never had a chance...
When you read a book, or watch an informative video on YouTube, you are gaining the service of the knowledge discovered by others so that you do not need to literally reinvent the wheel and everything else in your life.
Libraries are not paid for by "government." The federal government has the Library of Congress (to serve Congress first and us afterward). Your state may also have a similar institution. However, most of the 16,000 local libraries are paid for with local property tax money, and there, your vote counts. You can stop a library bond proposal pretty easily. However, realize that you pay about $30-$40 per year for your local library, about 10 cents per day. If you do not use it, that is your choice. 68% of Americans do have a library card.
stats above from 2008 from
http://www.librariesforreallife.org/f...
More library facts
http://www.ala.org/tools/libfactsheet...
Database by state
https://www.imls.gov/research-evaluat...
There are so many $50 expenditures that county property taxes pay for that add up to the $6000 per year they steal from me. I don’t want to pay for schooling for other people’s kids and the countless other. Programs the politicians dream up.
It is a bit unusual, but libertarians who claim to want to privatize all government services, do not perceive the bookstores as free market libraries. They spin off stories of colonial lending libraries that were fee-based, but they do not see the working world here and now. Just to say, you must buy a lot of books...
2. Remember 1984: Winston Smith's job was to change the electronic records.
3. "Those who forget the past are condemned to repeat it." Libraries are how you stay in touch with the past. The strongest virtue of traditional conservatism is their understanding and appreciation of the past. On the other hand, progressives roll out "new" ideas that already failed once (or twice...).
You can find a quote from Thucydides online about how a nation that separates its warriors and scholars finds its fighting done by fools and its decisions made by cowards. Thucydides did not say that. I found the source and found and old copy of an old edition at my local university library. But to quote the paragraph, I went to Google Books and got an image of the page. Easy. No typos.
http://necessaryfacts.blogspot.com/20...
I suggest you go get a menial job and work at it for a few years, then write your blog.
The DaVinci robot is made in Silicon Valley in the USA -- and it has competitiors. In fact, when I worked for Kawasaki Robotics back in the 1990s, they touted their PUMA for surgery, but it was an AMERiCAN machine from Unimation. In fact, for "firsts" Kawasaki had the first human worker killed by a robot... Just sayin'
You are complaining about the half empty glass. And I agree: we need to fill it up -- with high tech high concept value production, not 19th century hobbies and crafts.
And I support those Chinese. It is the largest human migration in history, the movement of girls from the farms to the factories. That was 20 years ago... They're just about ready to become venture entrepreneurs... A
Finally, as wonderful as We Americans are, as nice as my neighbors are, what is special about us or lacking in others that we say that the Chinese are stealing our jobs, but people in Texas are not stealing them from Massachusetts... or are they? Do we need to protect Massachusetts workers from Texas competitiion?
The common mantra is "jobs were stolen", but that is false. Jobs migrated to more fertile economic ground. Using your example, if the Massachusetts manufacturing "ground" is poisoned by over taxation, regulation, and union pressure, but the Texas ground is still "sweet" the jobs will move to Texas - or wherever else in the world. Nothing was stolen.
Edit add: Here in NY, the State is starting to offer HUGE tax and other incentives (in certain areas) to entice manufacturing and other businesses to move here. This isn't stealing, it's sweetening the ground that was poisoned for so long.