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  • Posted by plusaf 10 years, 7 months ago
    It's not the debt, it's the DEBT SERVICE....
    I must remind y'all again? In 1979 I got a mortgage on a Silicon Valley house for just under FOUR times my annual GROSS income at the time... a home that I bought for almost exactly TWICE the selling price of the NJ home I'd just left behind. And, according to the bank that let the mortgage to me, I got 'the last mortgage under 10% interest rate in Silicon Valley.'

    Did I lose the house? Was I foreclosed? NO.

    Companies borrow TONS of money when the payback on what they're going to USE the money for is deemed (or hoped for or expected) to be HIGHER than the interest rate cost of the loan!

    Unfortunately for virtually all Americans, our wonderful government 'leaders' conflate National Debt with Carrying Cost AND WORSE, have no problem creating expensive, inefficient programs that NEVER DIE and assume that for the infinite future, they can find some way to tax or steal the money from the Producers to pay for their failures.

    But trust me, the mainscream media OR your elected officials will NEVER say that.
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    • Posted by 10 years, 7 months ago
      Unfortunately, in this case, it is the "loan" as you call it - or more accurately, the obligation for future loans. Not only can we not pay off the obligation itself, but we cannot pay the interest on the loans being created to pay the obligation to begin with.
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      • Posted by plusaf 10 years, 7 months ago
        Robbie, the debt SERVICE load of the 'loans' is but a small fraction of the GDP of the country AND of total tax revenues. That's the point I was trying to make.

        AND YES, virtually none of our 'elected representatives' in DC understand the need or concept of 'indexing,' either. If ANY of them did, we would not be facing the impending death knell of the Highway Trust Fund. The gasoline taxes would have been indexed to the price of gas, or inflation or a negative factor of Corporate Average Fuel Economy! (and who sets THAT, too, btw?)

        It's either Follow the Money or Power or in this case, the Stupidity and Ignorance.

        On, and Social Security should have been indexed/connected to life expectancies, too, and never was. They're morons OR have a more nefarious agenda, and either alternative speaks very poorly of ALL of them.
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        • Posted by $ jbrenner 10 years, 7 months ago
          We really don't know what the real debt service will be. Right now interest rates are frighteningly low. I can't imagine what retirees are thinking right now after being told by their financial advisors that they would get 5-6% interest rates for bonds once they retired during the era they were working. It cannot be long before the Midas Mulligans of the world say BS to America's (excuse me, Amepobre's) fiscal policy and drive us into Carter era inflation. The economy during Obama's term has definitely been worse than during Carter, and it was bad then. The difference is that we have just maxed out the VISA card. The $17 trillion is just the listed debt. When one includes the promises that have been made, it is more like $100 trillion over time (net present value closer to $50 trillion). If one (erroneously) assumes that net present value of $50 trillion is spread out evenly over the population, that is about $150 K per person. However, most of us are in the top 1% (or at least top 10%). The top 1% pay 40% of the taxes right now. That means $50 trillion x 40% = $20 trillion / 3.3 million producers = $6 million in present value per top 1%er. For a top 10%er, that person's share of the debt will be between 0.5 and 1 million in present value. Let's assume that to retire comfortably now one has to have a net present value of around $2 million. Given these numbers, is it any wonder that producers are retiring or disappearing?
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          • Posted by 10 years, 7 months ago
            Precisely my point. It's not so much the current debt (although it is huge and continues to grow with no end in sight), but the promised "entitlements" that is going to kill us. All that Social Security money that was paid in when there was less going out was "stolen" by politicians to buy goodies to help them get re-elected. This money was replaced with IOU's that soon will need to be repaid - with even more tax money or borrowed money. Had that money been maintained in a "lock box" or just sheltered, we'd not be in the pickle that we find ourselves.
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          • Posted by plusaf 10 years, 7 months ago
            Spot On, JB... i'll have to check the timestamp, but I've written about that a long time ago at http://www.plusaf.com/lessons/finadvice.... , when I looked at how much money 'in the bank' my wife and I should have put away before retiring.

            We've got a great money manager who's kept our total IRAs within a quarter percent of our initial investment in June of '04 after something in excess of $560k was paid out in fees and cash withdrawals. We live on SocSec and monthly withdrawals. After 9 years and 11 months with this firm, at a yearly decrease of .26%, our money will last just under 400 years, or 15 or so if SocSec drops to zero thanks to some idiots in DC.

            I try to explain the math to whomever will look at the page or listen, but yes, since around the time I graduated college ('68!) the US has revolved around plastic money and Buy It Now and that 'mentality has helped create the mess too many people are in today.

            But too few people listen and fewer hear.
            Good luck to all!

            Oh, yeah, and I was 'there' for Carter and 'Whip Inflation Now,' too... I made up a "WIN" button that read "WHIM"... to more accurately reflect how the government decisions were being made back then, but my employer encouraged me to not wear my button at work.... :)
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  • Posted by Danno 10 years, 7 months ago
    The CBO assumes in its projections a yearly 3.5% GDP increase. 2013 came in at a massaged 1.9%. 2014 Q1 in revision will contract unless they add more massaging.
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  • Posted by RonC 10 years, 7 months ago
    To academic economists the theory is the important thing. They have no experience in real world cause and effect. Minor dislocation is just a term for record unemployment. People's lives get lost in the rounding errors. Like the several million people that did not get to keep their insurance plan and doctor. That was just a small percentage, nothing to be surprised about.

    My take? This year as more businesses begin to face their individual choices on health care our economy will crater...CRATER! Each individual business, large or small, will decide to solve health care the best way for their stockholders or stakeholders. Some will reduce staff to under 50. Some will reduce hrs to under 30/wk. Some will pay the penalty, give the change to the employee, and tell them to get their own insurance. And some will pay for it all, then try to compete against companies not providing insurance. This will cause major uncertainty for industry, and a net loss of income for employees no matter how they choose. The first quarter already went sideways with only one tenth of one percent growth. As the tsunami of healthcare rolls across major players we will all be damaged. I would guess the health care system will flat line and die. Then, it will be brought back to life in some way.

    This is bigger than Yellen. It won't matter how much easing they do. Our economy was growing at about 2%. Obama and his team are now fixing health care, which is 17% of GNP. Looking at his track record of fixing things what else could we expect? we were +2, if health care contract 50% we will be -6.5, if we're lucky. Take heart, this is simply a minor disruption on the way to utopia.
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    • Posted by $ LibertyPhysics 10 years, 7 months ago
      Yes. Yes. Yes times 1000

      I hope you are wrong about the economy cratering - maybe some entrepreneurial creativity will keep us humming along at 0.1% growth. But I believe you are correct.
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  • Posted by wiggys 10 years, 7 months ago
    you should have the same attitude as all of the members of congress as well as the president, it was coined by Alfred E. Newman "WHAT ME WORRY"!
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  • Posted by Temlakos 10 years, 7 months ago
    She's trying to defend the indefensible. We shouldn't have a Federal Reserve. We should trade with coins, or with warehouse receipts for other bulk commodities.
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    • Posted by Kittyhawk 10 years, 7 months ago
      Great point. I don't think the "powers that be" want to avoid a financial crash. Instead, I think fiat currency is an integral part of their plan to manipulate the economy and usurp more value from the non-elites.
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  • Posted by CircuitGuy 10 years, 7 months ago
    We should be taking action immediately to balance the budget. This is the exact time to do it.
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    • Posted by 10 years, 7 months ago
      Balance, hell. We need to drastically reduce expenditures and pay down the debt.
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      • Posted by $ jbrenner 10 years, 7 months ago
        Imagine treating the national debt like a 30 year mortgage. That is so frightening that many of us have just decided to shrug.
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        • Posted by CircuitGuy 10 years, 7 months ago
          I would be for that, but I would settle just for a balanced budget. If we treated it like a 30-year mortgage, it would be no big deal. Small cuts from everyone favorite programs (including grandma's meds, bases around the world, and nutrition programs) along with small tax increases for everyone (including the rich and poor) would solve the problem instantly. We'd be dealing with the reality of searching for a substitute for the 30-yr Treasury, just as we were in the late 90s. Esp with the booming economy, it would be easy. It doesn't happen b/c it's more effective to make a it a political tool than to get serious about shoring up our finances.
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          • Posted by $ jbrenner 10 years, 7 months ago
            It is a small wonder (blunder?) that no one has suggested the 30-year mortgage as a way of solving the debt crisis in the national debate.
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            • Posted by CircuitGuy 10 years, 7 months ago
              The average American borrows too much and doesn't save enough for retirement and has to struggle through. We elect a gov't that operates the same way.
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              • Posted by $ jbrenner 10 years, 7 months ago
                Every generation in America up to the generation that is currently dying off believed in self-sufficiency, saved for retirement, etc.. America has forgotten the Biblical proverb that the borrower is the slave to the lender. Most Americans are slowly enslaving themselves and trying to enslave us along with them. Margaret Thatcher said that liberalism only works until they run out of other people's money. They have yet to bleed us completely dry yet, but they have wounded us significantly.
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