Oxi! Greece’s 9.0 Earthquake, by Robert Gore
It is impossible to overstate the significance of Greece’s “Oxi,” or No vote. It puts into stark relief a simple proposition: governments propose, the citizens whose labors fund them dispose. In this case the government in question was not the Greek government, but supranational institutions: the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund, known collectively as the Troika. It is symbolically fitting that in a simple exercise of direct democracy, voters in its cradle rejected the Troika’s proposal of rescue loans without debt relief, coupled with a package of reforms. Leaving aside questions of fair dealing—neither side has clean hands—the vote shows that the financial foundation of government does indeed rest on the consent of the governed. Beyond the immediate chaos and longer-term ramifications, it was this realization that prompted the hysterical panic, prior to the vote, of the powers that be, in Europe and beyond. After the vote, panic gives way to terror.
Not that they should be surprised. History is littered with regimes in which the productive people who were to support the rulers’ grand schemes, burdened with too much debt and taxes, said “Oxi”. The joke in the old USSR: they pretend to pay us and we pretend to work. Usually there is no vote to register the sentiment—there certainly wasn’t in the USSR—but when work is punished rather than rewarded, people stop working and governments collapse. The Greeks watched their economy shrink and unemployment climb under Troika-mandated austerity, and were facing decades of debt servitude. A default and exit from the EU will be no picnic. Alexis Tsirpas' Syriza socialists will get acquainted with the realities of no credit (unless Russia or China comes through), reinstatement of a drachma that nobody inside or outside Greece will trust, and only what it can generate in economic activity going forward to fund their redistributive proclivities and the rest of the government, assuming Greek aversion to paying taxes can be overcome. In other words, Greeks will be starting from zero, but in their collective judgement, zero is better than negative—clawing out from a deep debt and austerity hole.
The key word here is repudiation, and the way is now clear for the government of Greece to repudiate hundreds of billions of euros of debt with the clear support of its citizens. For a breakdown of potential creditor losses, see “How a Greek Default Could Hammer Bonds, by Carl Weinberg” SLL, 7/5/15, and “Good On You, Greece—But Don’t Waver Now (Part 2),” by David Stockman," SLL, 7/4/15. For a description of the financial ripple effects, see “Crisis Progress Report (8): Acceleration,” SLL, 7/2/15. There is indeed a limit to how much debt and taxes can be piled on the serfs, in Greece and elsewhere. Governments propose; the serfs dispose, and the Greeks may have just disposed of not just a mountain of debt, but the whole creaky apparatus of the EU. They will serve as an example for other political parties across Europe—now termed extremist but perhaps soon to be mainstream. Will youth in developed countries around the world, faced with shrinking economies and bleak job markets, but also charged with paying their elders’ “entitlements” and servicing their elders’s debt, get ideas? Don’t bet against it.
SLL is going to venture out on a limb and predict that the Greek vote represents two apexes: peak debt and peak government. The people have spoken. Congratulations, Greece.
Not that they should be surprised. History is littered with regimes in which the productive people who were to support the rulers’ grand schemes, burdened with too much debt and taxes, said “Oxi”. The joke in the old USSR: they pretend to pay us and we pretend to work. Usually there is no vote to register the sentiment—there certainly wasn’t in the USSR—but when work is punished rather than rewarded, people stop working and governments collapse. The Greeks watched their economy shrink and unemployment climb under Troika-mandated austerity, and were facing decades of debt servitude. A default and exit from the EU will be no picnic. Alexis Tsirpas' Syriza socialists will get acquainted with the realities of no credit (unless Russia or China comes through), reinstatement of a drachma that nobody inside or outside Greece will trust, and only what it can generate in economic activity going forward to fund their redistributive proclivities and the rest of the government, assuming Greek aversion to paying taxes can be overcome. In other words, Greeks will be starting from zero, but in their collective judgement, zero is better than negative—clawing out from a deep debt and austerity hole.
The key word here is repudiation, and the way is now clear for the government of Greece to repudiate hundreds of billions of euros of debt with the clear support of its citizens. For a breakdown of potential creditor losses, see “How a Greek Default Could Hammer Bonds, by Carl Weinberg” SLL, 7/5/15, and “Good On You, Greece—But Don’t Waver Now (Part 2),” by David Stockman," SLL, 7/4/15. For a description of the financial ripple effects, see “Crisis Progress Report (8): Acceleration,” SLL, 7/2/15. There is indeed a limit to how much debt and taxes can be piled on the serfs, in Greece and elsewhere. Governments propose; the serfs dispose, and the Greeks may have just disposed of not just a mountain of debt, but the whole creaky apparatus of the EU. They will serve as an example for other political parties across Europe—now termed extremist but perhaps soon to be mainstream. Will youth in developed countries around the world, faced with shrinking economies and bleak job markets, but also charged with paying their elders’ “entitlements” and servicing their elders’s debt, get ideas? Don’t bet against it.
SLL is going to venture out on a limb and predict that the Greek vote represents two apexes: peak debt and peak government. The people have spoken. Congratulations, Greece.
The idea that austerity -- that you have to actually make the money that you are spending is the evil holding back the productive people is ludicrous.
If they were all that productive, they would be funding the pensions of Italy -- and demanding austarity.
The Europen institutions deserve blame as well. The 2010 "rescue" actually transferred most Greek debt from European banks to the Troika institutions, where losses could be socialized. It was clear then, and I and many others said so then, that Greece could not pay its debt, but their total debt was increased. The 2012 rescue did impose some haircuts, but only on private creditors, not the supranational institutions. Just as hard-working Americans have been used and abused by its government, so too has the average hard-working Greek been used an abused by its government and the Troika. Keep in mind that Troika austerity has destroyed the Greek economy and driven unemployment to depression levels, especially among the young. You would have a better argument if that kind of austerity ever worked, but it rarely has. The first thing the IMF in particular insists on is both consumption and income tax increases. All Greeks cannot be freeloaders. The freeloaders will be punished regardless of the outcome; there is simply no more money to freeload. However, the Greeks have opted to start from zero, with all its negative consequences, rather than put themselves in a hole from which they will never emerge. They have also said, decisively, that they, not the Troika institutions, will run their country and make their own decisions. They are preserving their sovereignty. I think Americans will face the same choice somewhere down the line, and I know the way I would vote--not that we'll ever be given that opportunity.
Greece is a country with an enormous coastline, and a longstanding tradition of knowing how to use it. She should go back to her roots...fishing, ship building, seafaring and all of the attendant industries that grow up around it. As a side bonus, the winners of this crisis will be able to repudiate the nation's absurd debt...the maritime trades are ideally suited to moving money and assets globally very easily.
Now the only question is are there enough people with the will to do it...
Get those escape plans ready.
The only thing that is left are unfinished Greek homes and buildings to avoid the tax burden of a redistributionist socialist government.
Cheers
Cheers
In Athens, a murder made front-page headlines for days. Even though it was a city of 10 million when I was there, violent crime (rape, murder) was extremely rare. Petty theft, however, was rampant. The common mindset of most of the merchants was that if they thought they could get away with it, they would try. As one example, I was trolling through one of the merchant bazarres/tourist traps in central Athens called the Plaka. It was the slow season and he tried to engage me in English to buy some of his wares. No prices were marked. I had already been to this very shop only a few months earlier so I knew what the prices should have been. He gave me a couple of prices (again in English) that were obviously marked up. So I responded in Greek and told him I was surprised because the last time I had come in they had been lower. He just stood there flabbergasted: for one that I actually spoke Greek far better than the average tourist, but also because he knew he'd just gotten caught with his pants down. He recovered pretty quickly, however, and apologized and I did end up bargaining with him for a tavli set (backgammon).
The people LOVE socialism - or at least the ones getting government handouts do. The best jobs in Greece were those working for the government because they meant a permanent, steady income for very little actual work and you couldn't get fired. A typical government work day started around 8 am, broke for lunch at around 1 pm and ... never resumed. Add to that the fact that 2 out of 5 days during any given week were religious holidays and it was a looter's paradise.
While I was there, I watched a garbage strike, a teacher's union strike, a transportation strike, and a students' strike. What would happen was that when one of those main public unions got a raise or some benefit, the next one in line would strike til they got it, etc. I could deal with a transportation strike (buses and trolleys were sporadic) and I didn't really care about the student strike (it was mainly just a big anti-America rally with burning flags, etc. in front of the main university). The teachers' union strike affected some of the people I knew because it closed down the schools for a week or so. But the garbage strike was just nasty. Especially just after it rained really heavily. Some of the underpasses became impasses. (pun intended)
Oh, and if you try to build anything there, good luck. Excavating any footings requires oversight by the Department of Antiquities. I counted several brand new high rises which had been halted mid construction because some worker kicked up a pottery shard. And those delays would last for years. I was frankly amazed that they were able to hold the Olympics there at all - the main reason was that the majority of the venues (which now lie in disuse and disrepair) were built on an old US air base.
When I heard that the EU was courting Greece for entrance, all that did was confirm to me what stupid people they had running the EU! I predicted the day that Greece joined the EU that it was only a short time before they would either get kicked right back out, or encourage the demise of the EU. It looks like they might do both.
the curse is may you live and retire on your salary. Something we are learning in the USA
How long before we post the same thing about the US?