I don't understand the purpose of this analysis. I assume it is smoke to generate belief that a "Trust Fund" exists and that we have to do something to save it. I believe that the federal government spends every dime it collects, borrows ten more dimes to perpetuate itself and prints however much they need to cover any shortfalls.

Using the time value of money and the performance of financial markets in my lifetime (1941 to present), a portfolio created by my monthly payments into social security would pay for my SS and benefits many times over. In my personal savings accounts I am not sure but I think I put away significantly less, especially in early years and while sending 4 kids to college. Nevertheless, reasonable projections say I can draw more income than I receive from SS only taking 4% per year from my personal accounts and if I die at age 100, will still have the inflation adjusted full capital remaining in my estate. I did not do anything to do this, no market timing, no buying low and selling high. I simply rolled over IRA's and 401-K's into a managed, balanced, portfolio of mutual funds along with whatever I could add from time to time.

So from personal experience, I believe that the Social Security Trust Fund is hokum and a government transfer of wealth on a grand scale that they want us to "save" so they can increase the rate of bleeding us to death and increasing dependence on their dole of funny money.

Other than that, I am a big fan.