The moral case for Price Gouging
Posted by Robbie53024 9 years, 9 months ago to Economics
Nobody likes to pay more for goods and services than they need to, so the title of this piece likely causes you to question my sanity. Never fear, if you read through and follow my reasoning, you will see not only that "price gouging" is moral, but that it actually will lead to greater availability of needed items at the lowest costs.
First, it is necessary to define our term - price gouging. This would be a situation whereby a seller increases the price on goods and services in response to a sudden and unpredictable shortage of said goods and services. We see this typically after a natural disaster such as a tornado, flood, hurricane, snow storm, etc. It is necessary that the situation be relatively sudden and unpredictable, otherwise a shortage would not likely occur, thus removing the ability for the seller to raise their prices since supply would be plentiful.
How do sellers of goods and services set their prices? It may come as a surprise to many that it is not on the basis of what they procured them for with some added profit. While "cost plus" pricing is rampant in governmental operations, in the free market this does not work. A purchaser of a good or service cares not a whit what you paid for it, they only care about the value that such good or service has to them. They will pay as much as they value it for, and no more. If the seller prices their goods at or below the buyer's willingness to purchase, they are likely to make a sale. The lower the price is in relation to the willing purchase price of the buyer, the higher the perceived value and the higher the likelihood of purchase. If they price them higher, the likeliness of selling goes to zero, since the purchaser does not perceive a good value in the purchase.
Thus, the seller does not in fact set the price at all, rather they choose a price based on their perception of the willingness of their potential customers to purchase at varying prices, along with the needed profit to make such business viable. For example, a seller may have an item in which there is one customer who will pay $1,000, once every year. The item costs the seller $100 to procure, so they would make $900 for a year. However, there are 1000 purchasers who would be willing to procure that item if priced at $150, which would net the seller $50,000. So the purchasers cause the price to be set at $150 instead of $1,000. So, the seller can sell one item at a tremendous profit but very low volume, or they can sell a lot at a lower profit, but a net total of a lot more.
There is another factor that also needs to be included, and that is the competition. If a good amount of profit is available, this will undoubtedly lead to others who wish to partake of some of that themselves. Thus, competition will ensue. In order for the new seller to break into the market, they will have to price their offering at or below that of the first seller, otherwise the customers will continue to purchase from the first seller, so long as that seller has sufficient supply to sell. This leads to price competition between the sellers to entice customers to purchase from them instead of the competitor.
So far, I've not discussed anything about price gouging, but having these concepts firmly understood is necessary prior to moving on. Customers set prices based on the value that they perceive of the goods and services that they desire. So long as there is sufficient supply, competitors drive down prices in order to entice customers to purchase from them instead.
What happens when a sudden and unexpected disruption happens? Because it was sudden and unexpected, none of the suppliers were able to stock ahead those goods that their customers will demand. Now there is a shortage of supply, and a demand for those goods. Suddenly the value to the customers increases as the competition switches to being between different customers instead of between different sellers. That customer that was willing to pay $1,000 now has the advantage as they will willingly fork over much more than will other customers. Again, this is the customer setting the price, not the seller, the seller merely is allocating the limited supply to those customers with a higher perception of value for those scarce goods. This is good, as not all customers can be satisfied due to limited supply and a mechanism for allocation must be established.
The question arises, then, why is supply limited? If there were more supply, then more could have been sold, and as we have seen, selling more even when at lower prices often results in a greater net revenue. But there are costs in procuring and stocking inventory of goods. There is the money that must be used to purchase the goods in the first place. This can result either in the loss of interest that could have been gained by keeping the money in the bank instead of spending it to purchase the goods. Or it may more likely be the result of paying interest to the bank for a loan that was used to pay to purchase the goods to be sold. Once the goods are procured, they also must be stored, necessitating some sort of warehouse, at a capital cost if owned, or a rental cost if leased, but in either case there is a cost to hold these goods.
There are also potential costs for obsolescence or spoilage (when newer goods are available, this makes the stored goods less desirable, or they get damaged or lose desirability to the customer due to age). The result is that procuring and holding goods incurs costs that the seller must take into account in determining how much to have and what price will result in satisfactory sales to cover all these costs plus make a profit. Procure too little, and a competitor will sell more and you will not satisfy enough customers. Procure too much, and you will have excessive costs that will make you less profitable.
By legislating that excessive price increases are not permitted, the incentive for the vendor to incur those additional costs is reduced. With less incentive, less of the potentially scarce item is available, thus ensuring its scarcity. Scarcity of needed items results in more people being harmed or enduring conditions that are harsher than otherwise would need to be. By allowing "price gouging" the first time that a shortage occurs some with the scarce goods will make a very good profit. This will entice others to want to participate in that good profit and they will make plans to participate - stock more of the goods or be able to get the goods readily. When the next event occurs that causes a shortage, now there will be more participants to provide those goods. The additional availability will reduce the overall price for all, yet still provide enough profit for those who have taken on the additional risks of the increased availability.
Let's take a very simple example. Electric generators are a rather high cost item with low continual demand but high demand after many natural disasters. The high costs and low demand typically would call for the inventory levels to be kept low. A tornado is a very sudden event and very localized. In an environment where price gouging laws are in place there is no incentive for a business to stock more generators than they would normally sell, so they don't Without any incentive to incur greater costs, the business will not do so.
First, it is necessary to define our term - price gouging. This would be a situation whereby a seller increases the price on goods and services in response to a sudden and unpredictable shortage of said goods and services. We see this typically after a natural disaster such as a tornado, flood, hurricane, snow storm, etc. It is necessary that the situation be relatively sudden and unpredictable, otherwise a shortage would not likely occur, thus removing the ability for the seller to raise their prices since supply would be plentiful.
How do sellers of goods and services set their prices? It may come as a surprise to many that it is not on the basis of what they procured them for with some added profit. While "cost plus" pricing is rampant in governmental operations, in the free market this does not work. A purchaser of a good or service cares not a whit what you paid for it, they only care about the value that such good or service has to them. They will pay as much as they value it for, and no more. If the seller prices their goods at or below the buyer's willingness to purchase, they are likely to make a sale. The lower the price is in relation to the willing purchase price of the buyer, the higher the perceived value and the higher the likelihood of purchase. If they price them higher, the likeliness of selling goes to zero, since the purchaser does not perceive a good value in the purchase.
Thus, the seller does not in fact set the price at all, rather they choose a price based on their perception of the willingness of their potential customers to purchase at varying prices, along with the needed profit to make such business viable. For example, a seller may have an item in which there is one customer who will pay $1,000, once every year. The item costs the seller $100 to procure, so they would make $900 for a year. However, there are 1000 purchasers who would be willing to procure that item if priced at $150, which would net the seller $50,000. So the purchasers cause the price to be set at $150 instead of $1,000. So, the seller can sell one item at a tremendous profit but very low volume, or they can sell a lot at a lower profit, but a net total of a lot more.
There is another factor that also needs to be included, and that is the competition. If a good amount of profit is available, this will undoubtedly lead to others who wish to partake of some of that themselves. Thus, competition will ensue. In order for the new seller to break into the market, they will have to price their offering at or below that of the first seller, otherwise the customers will continue to purchase from the first seller, so long as that seller has sufficient supply to sell. This leads to price competition between the sellers to entice customers to purchase from them instead of the competitor.
So far, I've not discussed anything about price gouging, but having these concepts firmly understood is necessary prior to moving on. Customers set prices based on the value that they perceive of the goods and services that they desire. So long as there is sufficient supply, competitors drive down prices in order to entice customers to purchase from them instead.
What happens when a sudden and unexpected disruption happens? Because it was sudden and unexpected, none of the suppliers were able to stock ahead those goods that their customers will demand. Now there is a shortage of supply, and a demand for those goods. Suddenly the value to the customers increases as the competition switches to being between different customers instead of between different sellers. That customer that was willing to pay $1,000 now has the advantage as they will willingly fork over much more than will other customers. Again, this is the customer setting the price, not the seller, the seller merely is allocating the limited supply to those customers with a higher perception of value for those scarce goods. This is good, as not all customers can be satisfied due to limited supply and a mechanism for allocation must be established.
The question arises, then, why is supply limited? If there were more supply, then more could have been sold, and as we have seen, selling more even when at lower prices often results in a greater net revenue. But there are costs in procuring and stocking inventory of goods. There is the money that must be used to purchase the goods in the first place. This can result either in the loss of interest that could have been gained by keeping the money in the bank instead of spending it to purchase the goods. Or it may more likely be the result of paying interest to the bank for a loan that was used to pay to purchase the goods to be sold. Once the goods are procured, they also must be stored, necessitating some sort of warehouse, at a capital cost if owned, or a rental cost if leased, but in either case there is a cost to hold these goods.
There are also potential costs for obsolescence or spoilage (when newer goods are available, this makes the stored goods less desirable, or they get damaged or lose desirability to the customer due to age). The result is that procuring and holding goods incurs costs that the seller must take into account in determining how much to have and what price will result in satisfactory sales to cover all these costs plus make a profit. Procure too little, and a competitor will sell more and you will not satisfy enough customers. Procure too much, and you will have excessive costs that will make you less profitable.
By legislating that excessive price increases are not permitted, the incentive for the vendor to incur those additional costs is reduced. With less incentive, less of the potentially scarce item is available, thus ensuring its scarcity. Scarcity of needed items results in more people being harmed or enduring conditions that are harsher than otherwise would need to be. By allowing "price gouging" the first time that a shortage occurs some with the scarce goods will make a very good profit. This will entice others to want to participate in that good profit and they will make plans to participate - stock more of the goods or be able to get the goods readily. When the next event occurs that causes a shortage, now there will be more participants to provide those goods. The additional availability will reduce the overall price for all, yet still provide enough profit for those who have taken on the additional risks of the increased availability.
Let's take a very simple example. Electric generators are a rather high cost item with low continual demand but high demand after many natural disasters. The high costs and low demand typically would call for the inventory levels to be kept low. A tornado is a very sudden event and very localized. In an environment where price gouging laws are in place there is no incentive for a business to stock more generators than they would normally sell, so they don't Without any incentive to incur greater costs, the business will not do so.
Original Fable: With a moral.
IN a field one summer’s day a Grasshopper was hopping about, chirping and singing to its heart’s content. An Ant passed by, bearing along with great toil an ear of corn he was taking to the nest. 1
“Why not come and chat with me,” said the Grasshopper, “instead of toiling and moiling in that way?” 2
“I am helping to lay up food for the winter,” said the Ant, “and recommend you to do the same.” 3
“Why bother about winter?” said the Grasshopper; “we have got plenty of food at present.” But the Ant went on its way and continued its toil. When the winter came the Grasshopper had no food, and found itself dying of hunger, while it saw the ants distributing every day corn and grain from the stores they had collected in the summer. Then the Grasshopper knew:
“IT IS BEST TO PREPARE FOR THE DAYS OF NECESSITY.”
Not my fault you did not buy one BEFORE you needed it. I will sell you mine for as much as I can get for it.
Canadian version today:
THE CANADIAN VERSION:
The ant works hard in the withering
heat all summer long, building his
house and laying up supplies for the
winter. The grasshopper thinks
he's a fool, and laughs and dances and
plays the summer away.
Come winter, the ant is warm and well fed.
So far, so good, eh?
The shivering grasshopper calls a press conference
and demands to know why the ant should be allowed
to be warm and well fed while others less
fortunate, like him, are cold and starving.
The CBC shows up to provide live
coverage of the shivering grasshopper,
with cuts to a video of the ant in his
comfortable warm home with a
table laden with food. Canadians are stunned
that in a country of such wealth, this poor
grasshopper is allowed to suffer so
while others have plenty.
The NDP, the CAW and the Coalition
Against Poverty demonstrate in front
of the ant's house. The CBC,
interrupting an Inuit cultural festival
special from Nunavut with breaking
news, broadcasts them singing "We Shall Overcome."
Jack Layton grants in an interview with
Mike Duffy that the ant has gotten rich off the backs of
grasshoppers, and calls for an immediate tax hike on
the ant to make him pay his "fair share".
In response to polls, the Liberal
Government drafts the Economic
Equity and Grasshopper
Anti-Discrimination Act, retroactive to the
beginning of the summer.
The ant's taxes are reassessed, and he
is also fined for failing to hire grasshoppers as helpers.
Without enough money to pay both the
fine and his newly imposed retroactive taxes, his home is
confiscated by the government. The ant moves to the US
and starts a successful agribiz company.
The CBC later shows the now fat grasshopper finishing up the last of
the ant's food, though spring is still months away, while the government
house he is in, which just happens to be the ant's old house, crumbles
around him because he hasn't bothered to maintain it.
Inadequate government funding is
blamed, Bob Rae is appointed to head a
commission of enquiry that will cost $10,000,000.
The grasshopper is soon dead of a drug
overdose, the Toronto Star
blames it on the obvious failure of
government to address the root causes of
despair arising from social inequity.
The abandoned house is taken over by a
gang of immigrant spiders,
praised by the government for enriching
Canada's multicultural diversity, who
promptly set up a marijuana grow up and
terrorize the community.
Government laws forbidding pricing according to the FREE market.
Consider what is happening now in Venezuela, the government fixes prices, confiscates goods designated as hoarded, the inevitable result is shortages.
Inevitable, you could predict the result from logic.
It seems that governments cannot resist the popularist appeal of interfering.
I suppose there are two kinds of objections, 1. is that government intervention always makes the situation worse, and 2. governments should not have that power anyway.
Just ask any survivalist....
What are you hoarding... the store's rain checks???
Survivalists know that supply will fail demand when the shite hits the fan, so they hoard the essentials.
Stop calling preparation "hoarding". It does nothing that hurts supply and demand.
There is no catastrophic shortage of oil, and therefor, gas...it is the opposite, we have an abundance.
It then stands to reason that you should support tax gouging, since there will surely be more than enough people willing to pay the price?
Second, hoarding is proactive...not reactive as you seem to think.
People hoard things that they deem essential in ANTICIPATION of a future shortage.
This is my last post about this...I am HOARDING my energy for something that really matters! ;-)
But still... my gasoline shortage price gouging bit had a point!
But I can't pass this one up: you pissed in your Post Toasties ONLY because you chose to use gasoline as your example.
NO ONE that thinks that gasoline may be gone, is going to put the nozzle into their tank, and try to figure out just how much they may need until gas returns, regardless of the price. EVERYONE will top their tank, and keep trying to squeeze in another drop, or two, for good measure.
I have lived in Florida all of my life, and have been through my share of storms. And I have never seen a car leave the station without gas running down the side of the car....
Now, I am finished! ;-)
Like I said from observation, no one leaves without all that they can have...before, or after, the storm.
There's only a problem when government interferes with this process (as when New York's anti-gouging law capped prices after the hurricane there). Result: the entrepreneurs who would wait in line to buy gas and resell it at a higher price stopped operating, so you had to do your own waiting in line without the option of paying someone to do it for you.
The market gives us choices. Regulation that takes them away is evil. Always.
The second is Game Theory. If participants are anonymous, then arbitrarily raising the price is without cost to the seller; if participants are known, then that action has a cost. Example: After the 1994 Northridge Quake, a gas station in Valencia started selling its water for $5.00 a bottle (typical price $0.25). (There was no water service in Valencia at that time.) Not only was there a lot of pushback at that time, but afterwards the community spontaneously boycotted that station and it had to close.
So while I agree that the government should keep its freaking nose out of business, one needs be aware that there is a demonstrated long-term benefit to compassionate and ethical behavior. (Two separate items: I am not saying that raising prices is unethical...but unethical behavior is something that Game Theory has examined.)
Jan
If the choice is between short-term profit and long-term customer relationships, many businesses will rationally choose the latter.
In a non-price gouging scenario, a business in "Tornado Alley" would know that there is some probability that their customers may have a sudden need for generators over and above the normal demand. The ability to make higher profits would incentivize the vendor to stock more generators than they would otherwise in the hopes of gaining that higher profit by selling them when needed. Because their competitors would also have the same incentive, they too would stock more than normal. This ensures that a greater number of generators are available when they are needed and at a lower cost since supply is greater than if the higher profit were prohibited.
The moral thing to do is to encourage supplies of scarce resources when catastrophes occur. Allowing the free-market to work, to encourage increased supply of these otherwise scarce items, albeit at a slightly higher price, is a far more moral position than is one of prohibiting "price gouging."
“The rule of thumb” in a market system is that the market price of any good (or service) is a result of ALL of the money consumers are willing to spend on procuring it and ALL of the supply that producers are willing to part with. In simple terms, if the consumer aggregate amount of money to purchase widgets at a specific point in time is $1,000 and at that same moment in time producers are willing to part with 100 widgets, then the market-clearing price for widgets would be $10. Of course, markets are more complicated than this simple a model to explain rational human action and market conditions change with each and every transaction.
Price gouging (sellers setting a higher than market price) is not a problem in an unfettered market because consumers will simply ignore the higher priced item and purchase a lower priced item that other non-price-gouging entrepreneurs are willing and able to bring to the market for sale at a lower price. Price gouging is a form of business suicide; it does not need government intervention to prevent it because it represents an unstable and unprofitable business strategy. Government should encourage market prices after an emergency to allow the market price to perform one of its key functions: rationing scarce goods to those who can afford to pay for them. Not every hurricane survivor in South Florida can afford to pay $5.00 for a bag of ice, but those who can pay the price will have ice and that would be better than nobody getting ice because Florida law will not permit more than a 10% markup above non-emergency prices.
Jeb Bush, Chris Christy, and all the other so-called conservative governors clearly demonstrate their lack of conservative values when they failed to speak out against their respective state laws which restricted supply by enforcing economically unsound laws that limit a price markup after an emergency. We should all remember a picture is worth a thousand words. I do not care how many words Jeb Bush uses to tell us he is a conservative; his record ROARS LOUDLY that he not at all conservative.
The other issue that I wanted to bring out is that not only are goods rationally allocated, but their availability is actually increased in the areas where they are most needed, which is the moral argument.
Hmmmmmmm Wonder why dem Muslims have become American-hating terrorists.
HINT: They don't hate us because we're "free".
HINT: Dr. Ron Paul pointed out a likely reason & folks like Hannity & O'Reilly accused him of hating America.
The out-of-control US Stare has become the largest and most dangerous terrorist organization in the universe ... and not just dangerous to other terrorists, since the NSA, CIA, FBI & militarized local police now label YOU as potential terrorist if you object to USG terrorist tactics.
Suppose the Chinese military blew up your community, sent ground troops to occupy the area, murdered your wife, raped your dog littered your former neighborhood with radioactive debris, killed & maimed your friends with bombs, drones, chemical weapons, etc.. Would you tend to see the Chinese government as your enemy? If that terrorism was repeated often enough, would you mebbe eventually think of the Chinese people as your enemies?
Does that help any?
Here's my difficulty with that view. The 1989 take-over of the US Embassy in Tehran. The 1983 bombing of the Marine barracks in Beirut. The 1993 bombing of the World Trade Center. Each of these attacks occurred prior to any significant direct US involvement on the ground in the Middle East. The Marine barracks in Beirut were part of an international peace-keeping force, not some "foreign aggression."
Your excuse is just that, an excuse. It disregards history.
ALL of the local supplies of portable generators were sold out and apparently suppliers could not get any more into the delivery pipeline for estimated weeks into the future.
Some private folks and stores that happened to have some unsold inventory tried to deliver them to FL, but the State barred them from charging the old market-clearing rates (like, pre-hurricane.)
So, faced with huge demand plus higher delivery costs of trucking the generators across possibly several state lines to Get Them To Florida, the potential suppliers.... didn't.
Rather than get ANY generators to ANY people Ready And Willing to Pay Any Price for them, NO additional generators were available anywhere in Florida.
Now, if you want to talk about supply, demand and government intervention, please... go right ahead... and hopefully, that situation will never affect YOU in the future.
I was trying to make the point that 'anti-gouging laws' can have the apparently counterproductive effect of completely cutting OFF the supply of wanted/needed products from the people who want or need them.
Better?
Remember that? Stop whining. Be more careful at your next purchase. If you can't get it at what you consider a fair price then don't buy it. Only exceptions are life-saving medicines or procedures. Then you can question the seller's integrity, and you must bargain or borrow.
but the slippery slopieness of starting with illness and medicine is exactly what the Libs have done, and all they've done is slide everything possible down that slope to include 'em under the rubric of "compassion."
Or as I tend to put it, "when someone plays the 'moral issue' card, it's because they've run out of logical evidence for their side."
:)
What sane person would forego something that will save their life, and that they can afford, simply to 'protest' the pricing?
I don't think that even medicine/medical procedures should be regulated. Just look at what has happened to things like Lasik and cosmetic surgery. Both have improved tremendously with costs being held in check, and outstanding customer service.
I wasn't trying to raise your ire, just looking to understand.
What would the challenge be? Your ability to raise my ire? At my age, having made friends with death, every day is a gift and even anger is something to be enjoyed.
Likewise, some things, like sporting goods gear - may actually be quite expensive in the store, but also pretty expensive on wholesale - it tends to be made in the US, and not with child labor in Bangladesh, and the buyer (an American sportsman/woman) is willing to pay up for quality - so there may only be 20% margin in it, while a 'cheap' item wouldn't sell at all, at any price.
Structured data cabling for buildings is also something that was once a very high level of margin (maybe 40%), but competition and the buyer's willingness to pay has been very successful at wringing every penny out of that business - today's multi-million dollar 'cabling jobs' are frequently done at something in the range of 5-7% margin. Even the waste of not completely using every spool of cable purchased for the job can have the effect of destroying any profit in it.
Likewise, clothing tends to have a huge margin in it. Most individual pieces are in the range of $3.00 to $5.00 from the manufacturer overseas but might be $100 to $150 on the rack. This is due to many reasons - 'heavy' buyers of clothing in American shopping malls search for the 'deal'. Lets be honest, female teens & 30-somethings spend a lot of money on clothing... they have "Sale" on the brain, so artificially marking something to $100 and always having it on 'sale' at 40-50% off yields a price tag of around $60, which is often still at least a 600% margin. Its simple to analyze, virtually no clothing retailer in the US 'makes' the stuff they sell, but they all pay upwards of $20,000 a month (or much more) in rent for their space in a shopping mall - up to $100,000 a month in some cases. You can't pay for that making $10 on a pair of jeans... Sadly, the only business getting rich in retail is always the owner of the real estate involved... the lion's share of the revenue from each of the stores is going to pay for the real estate, not the staff, the supplier, or even the retailer themselves... its where the name "Black Friday" comes from, its the first day a typical US retailer is 'in the black" after operating at a loss all year.
We ordered an adjustable bed frame with a high end foam mattress. Features are an important part for some people. Are you aware these new adjustable bed frames can be controlled from your Smart Phone? And now they even have USB charging ports, AC Outlets, Blue Tooth Speaker Systems, and even massage. Remember the last time you put in a quarter to have your bed shake? They don't come with a coin box however, that would be an add on accessory. At one reputable chain store our Split-King (that's two Singles you can push together to make a King) came to about $5100 plus tax (about 10% here). Across the street they had the same thing but it was last years model ON SALE for about $3600 and the current SALE included tax. Guess which one we bought.
My story here is just to confirm some of the information and concepts presented by Robbie, and because I had nothing better to do right now. Does anyone know where to purchase a nice looking coin box? I'm still going to forgo the Smart Phones, I probably couldn't operate one anyway, and I'd be in a lot of trouble if one of us got folded in half during the night because of a butt dial.. Oh yes, I almost forgot to mention the Under Bed Convenience Light, I wonder what that's all about? The only thing none of them had was built in pistol safe. I wonder how many bed regulations there are from Uncle Sam?
Our area of the Oregon coast has one hardware store for about every 40 miles so has a large customer base per store. During the great Y2k urban legend, they sold A LOT of generators.
As the event itself did not occur, they had to implement a policy of refusing to accept returns of unused generators.
we got a 10k for $870 a year ago. . check them
on ebay, and you might even find someone selling
one from y2k which has never been used!!! -- j
Despite this, price competition is not what moves the world forward, inventions do.
In the State-run unfree society, the bureaucrat is king and bureaucratic interventionism, especially in the form of price controls (eg, rent, gas, etc., “Minimum Wage Laws”, “Child Labor Laws”, etc.) is ALWAYS RETROgressive and causes regressive domino effects that lead society closer to lasting poverty, war and servitude and away from lasting peace, prosperity and freedom.
In the State-run unfree society, the bureaucrat is king and bureaucratic interventionism, especially in the form of price controls (eg, rent, gas, etc., “Minimum Wage Laws”, “Child Labor Laws”, etc.) is ALWAYS RETROgressive and causes regressive domino effects that lead society closer to lasting poverty, war and servitude and away from lasting peace, prosperity and freedom.
productive process and cause waste. . resources
are allocated according to a bureaucrat's wishes
instead of customers' wishes. . now, if we could
just fix this!!! -- j
How about just stockpiling a few items that YOU might need during an emergency, and then NOT needing them at the time ? Most people know what the typical emergencies are likely to be in their geographical areas.