Who’s Right? by Robert Gore | STRAIGHT LINE LOGIC
So there is another side to the story that speculators and especially investors may want to consider before they plunk their money down. Sure, U.S. equity indexes went from record to record in 2014, the punditry is bullish for 2015, and the GDP grew at 5.0 percent in the third quarter (for a skeptical take on that statistic, see “Here Is The Reason For The ‘Surge’ In Q3 GDP,” Zero Hedge, 12/23/14). The Fed’s recent avowals to forego further monetary easing must be taken with the same shaker of salt one employs when an alcoholic in the throes of a nasty hangover swears off the poison. It still has the market’s back, and any significant equity “correction” will be met with more quantitative easing. However, commodities, credit, and economies in most of the developed world are sounding sour notes in the bullish chorus. After further investigation and analysis, those inclined to join the chorus may discount the discordant notes, but ignoring them entirely may prove most unwise.
Good article.. although a bit distressing. When you combine these metrics with yesterday's market drop and today's performance so far (down another 140 points {1:30 EST}) ... The price of oil dropping below $50 is great news short term for consumers, bad for producers in one of what has been a positive field.... One would think that reduced energy prices would be good for everyone but the energy producers. The problem, as I understand it, is that it is not driven only by increased supply. Apparently much of the decline is due to decreased world demand. This is a sign of an ominous nature congruent with the rest of your metrics.
It would appear many governments are putting a spin on their statistics... As if saying it is so, would make it so. I get the feeling that many are propping/covering up things and playing a dangerous game.. a gamble.
A few weeks back, a friend of mine (retired and heavily invested in the market), wagered the market would soon climb to over 18,500 and at that point he would cash out temporarily due to my advice of caution. History, as you have stated, does not always repeat, but nonetheless it should be considered and I fear he is not well versed. He was bullish, I the bear... I hoped for his sake I was wrong....still do. He has a broker/adviser that has done well for him thus far...
I have been wrong and surprised that somehow this balloon has been kept afloat thus far...
Time will tell.
Regards,
O.A.