- Hot
- New
- Categories...
- Producer's Lounge
- Producer's Vault
- The Gulch: Live! (New)
- Ask the Gulch!
- Going Galt
- Books
- Business
- Classifieds
- Culture
- Economics
- Education
- Entertainment
- Government
- History
- Humor
- Legislation
- Movies
- News
- Philosophy
- Pics
- Politics
- Science
- Technology
- Video
- The Gulch: Best of
- The Gulch: Bugs
- The Gulch: Feature Requests
- The Gulch: Featured Producers
- The Gulch: General
- The Gulch: Introductions
- The Gulch: Local
- The Gulch: Promotions
- Marketplace
- Members
- Store
- More...
Thanks for sharing.
The better analogy for your $40,000 per year plumber is having about $200,000 on a mortgage - when you include the off-books promises to pay.
The upshot being that we never had this level of retirees before, but will have essentially forever. Thus a system where current inflows paid for current outflows is unsustainable without drastic increases in taxes or decreases in benefits.
http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/content/31...
The 65-over group will be somewhere in the neighborhood of 20% percent of our population. But how many age groups made up the 100%? Five or six? Do you know?
The 65-over group will always have an advantage in statistics because it covers several decades, while the other groups tend to be counted in ten-to-fifteen year increments.
I think I saw one article recently that actually make a separate group of the 85-older, but still...that doesn’t happen often.
So tell me: What age group has a bigger than 20% pool? Hmmm?
Even if a significant number of illegals are allowed to enter the payee ranks into SS, they will do so at a much lower level than those being replaced. This cannot make up the difference and the outflow will continue to increase faster than the income.
Estimates are that the US government will collect $1.6 trillion in tax revenue in 2014 (although that includes social security tax). Against that, the US Federal debt is $18 trillion as of November not including unfunded future liabilities. So if we use your plumber analogy, the $40,000 a year plumber now has $450,000 in debt not counting unfunded liabilities.
What bank would give the plumber more money?
To further this analogy question, if I had approximately a $300,000 mortgage and the bank expected me to pay $200,000 of it, then either a) the bank would foreclose on me, b) the bank would not make the loan in the first place, c) the bank would ask the Federal Reserve to print the money of thin air (which is what they do for the federal government), or d) they would ask the federal government for a bailout as they did in 2008. Any business that used US Treasury accounting practices would wind up like Arthur Andersen and Enron did. More of the spending is off budget than on budget. Just curious, did you play Monopoly with a kitty under "Free Parking" or not?
http://www.statista.com/statistics/26359...
The official national debt is over $18 trillion.
http://www.usadebtclock.com/
That is over 100% of GDP, not the 74% you quoted.
Moreover, this debt presumes an unsustainable interest rate. How long do you think seniors will accept the paltry return on investment that they are getting when they were told by their financial advisors that they were going to get 5 or 6% on their CD's?
http://www.usadebtclock
you can see that the "average household" has an unfunded liability of just a shade under a million dollars. Virtually all of us here in the Gulch make substantially more than the average household. I am quite sure that the government considers $2 million my household's "fair share".
Simple scenario: US Gov't takes in $100 in income taxes and $20 in SS payroll taxes. The gov't spends $130 using the income tax money, sells $20 in bonds to the SSA, and sells $10 in bonds on the open market. How much debt is owed? Well, you seem to say that since the $20 is intergov't debt, that it shouldn't count. But at some point in the future, that $20 bond is going to be redeemed and will have to be repaid. Where's it going to come from? The general fund in the form of more taxes or more borrowing. But it has to be paid, because the original funds were already spent.
Really, think about things first. Your arguments/analysis is faulty.
You are the one out of your depth, here. Stop digging your hole deeper.
You people are so disappointing. I noticed when I worked to support the Ron Paul campaign in 2008 that most of the people around me were 9/11 Truthers-- ironically, of course, people utterly resistant to truth in any form because fantasies of vast conspiracies were so much more comforting to them.
This was a total reversal from Dr. Paul's campaign in 1988, which I also worked for, having the privilege of spending a day with Dr. Paul and hosting Andre Marrou at my home. By and large, their supporters were the very best of the Libertarian Party, the nut jobs having been mostly distracted by Russell Means. But now the LP, like much of the Objectivist movement, has become an asylum run by the inmates. No wonder Dr. Paul went back to the Republican Party-- people like you drove him back there.
There's a similar but even greater irony here, which is that a forum named after Galt's Gulch is dominated by people like you who have no interest in facts, only a fanatical devotion to their own comforting fantasies. Do you remember what John Galt said about Galt's Gulch?
"Nobody stays here by faking reality in any manner whatever.”
You don't belong here. This place should belong to those who accept the facts, think rationally, and speak the truth. People like me.
Get the hell out of our way.
http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/us_n...
I've witnessed a lot of businesses trying to play the debt game but ignoring the cash flow requirements and the available market, lose their asses along with a lot of their investors. You simply cannot continue a debt based system into infinity. The full faith and credit of the government based on promises against the productivity and buying power of your citizens, then their children, then grand-children--somewhere the teetering ball at the top of the pyramid falls.
In simpler terms, its the old adage of 'Robbing Peter to pay Paul' that I was taught as a child and we're Peter.
Estimates are that the US government will collect $1.6 trillion in tax revenue in 2014 (although that includes social security tax). Against that, the US Federal debt is $18 trillion as of November not including unfunded future liabilities. So if we use your plumber analogy, the $40,000 a year plumber now has $450,000 in debt not counting unfunded liabilities.
What bank would give the plumber more money?
What mattered was that, with all other expenses covered, I could handle the carrying costs of the mortgage... I could (just barely) pay the monthly payments of principal AND interest without sucking down savings.
It's the INTEREST costs that are important, not the principal amount!
After years of inflation (and wife getting a job!) the monthly mortgage payments fell to noise levels and I ended up prepaying, refinancing at lower interest rates and eventually paying the mortgage off!
If y'all would stop thinking in terms of income and total debt, this discussion might make sense.
Today, if real interest rates are under 1% (the rate at which the government can borrow money or the interest rate ON the Debt... 'we' can go on paying the interest on the Debt forever.
It's not like anyone is going to call in the mortgage next month or next year and we've got to come up with the Payoff Balance!
Though CNBC or CNN might like you to look at it that way... Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt-Arama!
The situation with the SSA is more akin to having an interest only mortgage. You paid the interest monthly, but now you're coming close to needing to pay off the principal, and you haven't grown your income sufficiently to do so.
What I'm trying to say is that if it takes 100 years to really screw up a system, maybe 'plans to change course' shouldn't include expectations to Fix Everything in our next Five Year Plan... if there even were one.
I have proposed and supported plans to make SocSec voluntary and opt-in OR opt-out, with clearly-defined terminology and rules and obligations on the part of all workers who sign up or out.
That's why I referred to a roughly '40-year working life' as what I considered a 'reasonable' amount of time for most humans to adjust their savings, spending and retirement planning to achieve a safer and more secure retirement life for themselves and their families.
As for 'calling in the debt,' I think we all can expect that the 'solution' that will come out of DC will be some kind of kicking-the-can-further-down-the-road, coupled with pulling the wool over as many eyes as possible so that 'harsh realities' don't have to be experienced by Anyone, Ever. Including Congressmonkeys....
As I said before, I was a "$24-27k marketing guy with a $70k mortgage"! My wife and I DID have a negative cash flow of about $1000 a month for nearly a year until she found a well-paying job.
Inflation obviously helped decrease the impact of our mortgage payment (something like $610 a month... I just unearthed some old tax records to shred...) but about 15 years later, we'd paid the entire mortgage off!
To paint the picture that an alternative scenario is impossible or that everyone in the 'plumber's position' will be there forever is what I call 'the catastrophization of America.' All problems will destroy everyone all the time and no solution is feasible without everyone getting screwed one way or the other.
If I want that kind of rhetoric, I can turn to leftish TV 'news' broadcasts or virtually anything that escapes Obama's mouth.
Sorry...
The Liberals tend to want to spend the money on 'social support and infrastructure' whether any of the programs have ever demonstrated success in reaching their alleged goals, AND the Conservatives love to take that money and funnel it into National Security issues... like military programs... whether the Pentagon even wants the program or not.
Oh, and as a current footnote on debt versus income, my wife and I currently carry a debt load of about $75k and ALL of our 'income' is from SocSec and IRA withdrawals.
In ten and a half years, our TOTAL IRA balances are down about 2/3 of one percent, after hundreds of thousands of dollars of fees and withdrawals. Our SocSec 'income' would cover maybe half of our outstanding debt (which comprises a Home Equity Loan and our Visa account (which is paid off in full every month from our checking account.))
It's not the Debt... it's the debt LOAD on your cash flow that matters!
Keep in mind, too, that the Boomer Generation (which began just after I was born) grew up into the instant-gratification and "pay"-with-plastic credit card mentality, and severely hyperextended itself in every way possible. The Boomers supported the 'government will supply all of our needs' belief and didn't save bupkis towards their own retirements.
Reality bites.
Even a home mortgage with a paydown schedule has only a 'last payment date' not a 'callable expiration.'
As my friends at MarketMinder.com keep saying, neither China nor anyone else is going to 'cash out of US bonds'... it makes no sense for them to do so and it would hurt them as much or more than it would hurt 'us.'
Or, more simply, "What's the 'Due Date' on our National Debt?" Link, please? :)
I thought we Gulchers dealt with facts, not insults?
It was my feeble attempt at sarcasm.
itself. . the feds say that inflation is zip, right now.
but go buy some groceries. -- j
I kind of think that's been the whole idea from the start.
I find it interesting they always leave that off and as a result in any comparison of nations we're never shown as a debtor nation.
Added together, we come out in the black.
There are problems with relying on that, however.
Same as any bank.
Read the works of Davidson and Rees-Mogg, especially "Blood In The Streets".
I don't refer to it as "our" debt, though. I didn't authorize any of it. Nor, I suspect did you.
Just not true.
We're no where near the largest debtor nation.
Greece is and many lead the way between us and them.
There is no chart or list showing our total lending and debt that shows us anywhere near the bottom and I challenge you to show it.
Doesn't exist.
Jan
It's a web of debts and debtors - it's not just debtors on one side and lenders on the other.
We borrow money from other nations for specific and general purposes.
They do the same. Added together, the USA has NEVER been shown as a debtor nation.
I'm using the following definition:
DEFINITION of 'Debtor Nation'
A nation with a cumulative balance of payments deficit. A debtor nation has negative net investment after recording all of the financial transactions it has completed worldwide.
They always list the debt - but never list the debt owed us. I find that interesting.
...so maybe the article has a point.