The End of Global Tourism?
Posted by freedomforall 3 years, 4 months ago to Science
Excerpt:
"Just a few days after the official acknowledgement of the pandemic in late January, 2020, Joseph Norman, Yaneer Bar-Yam, and Nassim Taleb published a short paper, Systemic Risk of Pandemic Via Novel Pathogens which considered pandemics as complex systems.
Viewed through the lens of complex systems, two features of pathogens are consequential: 1) whether asymptomatic individuals can carry and transmit the pathogen, and 2) the contagiousness of the pathogen, i.e., its rate of spreading, which is generally measured by the "reproductive ratio R0--the number of cases one case generates on average over the course of its infectious period in an otherwise uninfected population."
In this pandemic, the pathogen can be transmitted by asymptomatic individuals, both vaccinated and unvaccinated, and the pathogen is highly contagious.
In other words, by hyper-connecting human groups via air travel, the Global Village has insured non-linear spreading of the pathogen and its variants.
Viewed as a complex non-linear system, the pandemic variants can only be controlled by drastically pruning the physical connections between disparate global groups, which means effectively ending the unrestricted flow of individuals around the planet. This would effectively end global tourism and business travel, as even a small number of asymptomatic carriers which escape detection could introduce a new variant to which the home populace is vulnerable.
It's not politics or economics, it's just complex non-linear systems and logic."
"Just a few days after the official acknowledgement of the pandemic in late January, 2020, Joseph Norman, Yaneer Bar-Yam, and Nassim Taleb published a short paper, Systemic Risk of Pandemic Via Novel Pathogens which considered pandemics as complex systems.
Viewed through the lens of complex systems, two features of pathogens are consequential: 1) whether asymptomatic individuals can carry and transmit the pathogen, and 2) the contagiousness of the pathogen, i.e., its rate of spreading, which is generally measured by the "reproductive ratio R0--the number of cases one case generates on average over the course of its infectious period in an otherwise uninfected population."
In this pandemic, the pathogen can be transmitted by asymptomatic individuals, both vaccinated and unvaccinated, and the pathogen is highly contagious.
In other words, by hyper-connecting human groups via air travel, the Global Village has insured non-linear spreading of the pathogen and its variants.
Viewed as a complex non-linear system, the pandemic variants can only be controlled by drastically pruning the physical connections between disparate global groups, which means effectively ending the unrestricted flow of individuals around the planet. This would effectively end global tourism and business travel, as even a small number of asymptomatic carriers which escape detection could introduce a new variant to which the home populace is vulnerable.
It's not politics or economics, it's just complex non-linear systems and logic."
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- 2Posted by $ 25n56il4 3 years, 4 months agoWhoa FFA good Post! it's a bit early in the morning for me to absorb (8:00 a.m.) but it is impressive! What I got out of it is 'THEY don't know what THEY are doing!' Good article well said. NMark as read | Best of... | Permalink|