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More so outside of the US. I dropped a post in Economics talking about the WTI last week. Among it's takeaways is that gas prices in the US are not directly because we can't get oil. In fact they are high because American oil is valued higher and has higher demand. That "20% of the worlds" oil the Brent index, and really it means "20% of the world's oil if we don't count the US"

I didn't have room for this extra info on how this national view hides the reality of elections being local events. So I put it in this "addendum."

The article above examines national favorability numbers for both parties. But midterm elections are not national events. They are 435 separate House races and 35 Senate contests, and the bilateral disgust dynamic plays out very differently depending on whether a seat is competitive or safe.

Ballotpedia currently tracks about 43 House districts as battlegrounds, roughly 10 percent of the chamber. Democrats hold 23 of those seats, Republicans hold 20. The remaining 392 seats are solidly held by one party or the other, meaning the incumbent or their party's nominee will win regardless of what national favorability numbers say. In those seats, the bilateral disgust is politically inert; a Republican at 32 percent national favorability wins a solid-red district just as easily as a Democrat at 28 percent wins a solid-blue one.

The House majority turns on what happens in those 43 districts. Republicans currently hold a 220-212 majority with three vacancies. Democrats need a net gain of three seats. Republicans can lose at most two. The margin is so thin that the national topline is almost meaningless; what matters is whether individual incumbents in individual districts have done enough to insulate themselves from the headwinds affecting their party.

The Senate map tells a similar story with its own structural wrinkle. Of the 35 seats up for election (33 regular plus special elections in Florida and Ohio), analysts are tracking roughly 9-12 as competitive. The rest are safe. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take the majority, a tall order under any conditions. Their best offensive targets are Maine (Susan Collins), North Carolina (open seat), and possibly Ohio (special election). But they are simultaneously defending Georgia (Jon Ossoff) and Michigan (open seat after Gary Peters retired), both in states Trump carried in 2024.

This is where the bilateral disgust asymmetry from the article has concrete consequences. In the competitive Senate races, Democrats need to persuade voters who dislike both parties to show up and choose the Democratic candidate. But those voters, as the CNN data shows, dislike Democrats primarily for being passive and unfocused. That complaint becomes harder to overcome when the specific Democratic candidate has to explain what the party stands for while 67 percent of the party's own voters say there is no consensus on that question. Republican candidates in competitive races face their own liabilities, but their party's higher internal cohesion gives them a more stable base to build from.

The commentary that treats Trump's 35 percent approval as a uniform national headwind for Republicans is conflating a national number with 435 distinct local races. In the roughly 390 safe seats, approval doesn't matter because the outcome is predetermined. In the roughly 43 competitive House seats and 9-12 competitive Senate races where it theoretically could matter, the bilateral disgust dynamic means the expected Democratic advantage from presidential unpopularity is partially offset by the opposition's own unfavorability, priority misalignment, and internal division. The midterms will be decided in those few dozen races by factors that no national poll measures: candidate quality, local issue salience, ground-game execution, and whether each party can give voters in those specific districts a reason to choose them rather than merely a reason to reject the other side.

Now, care to guess what kind of polling isn't being done, or at least isn't being talked about?

Glad you found it useful. I've been building up some thoughts along these lines as I've taken a break from my home economics newsletter and a discussion with a new friend helped crystallize some thoughts around my issues with polling, I figured a good first-pass for others would be best here where I find most to be thoughtful and actually think about things. About to post one about POTUS approval polls building on this one. :)

Some Memes never go stale

Ships are pouring into the Gulf of America to "fill 'er up" on sweet American oil and LNG.
Now if we can only get The Peoples Republic of Taxachusetts to allow a natural gas pipeline from Pennsylvania through their Commie, Woke state (of confusion) so the rest of New England can have plentiful, cheap gas.....
The issue compounding this supply is a 100-year-old-law that doesn't allow non-US registered ships to ferry goods from one part of America to the other. This was to protect American shipping. Great!... except, we haven't built and registered a LNG tanker in the country for 60 years.
New England is forced to buy LNG from overseas! This is insane.
All because of the stupid Watermelon crowd.
You know, watermelon: Green on the outside, Red on the inside.

Thanks for the link - looks to be an impressive individual. Know someone in the AF and they say the change between admin's is VERY stark. They would not have been able to do what has been done in the Mideast without the change. And the force shaping that is going on - he said they are going to lose some good desk people due to the reinforcing of physical requirements but all in all it is a very good thing.

Look up Jason Potter, ASN/RDA now. I knew him previously as a Congressional staffer. He is a GREAT guy, trying to do the right thing, drive efficiency and expediency. No arrogance, soft spoken, Totally unusual for a political role like this.

https://www.secnav.navy.mil/rda/Docum...

Good to know, and glad to hear!

Nicely expressed! Almost everything our modern infrastructure relies on comes out of an oil well or coal mine.

Your sentiments of what Trump could say or do mirrors my own thoughts. However, I don't think Trump will go that route because he will not telegraph a punch (or a feint punch) to the enemy. I figure he is drawing lines in the sand and not showing the enemy where they all are, but will provide painful feedback when required. He's the type that would hide a spiked mace behind his back and taunt the fool irritating him to come in nice and close.

Good Grief. I knew it was in the laundry but did not see anywhere that it was due to ozone based systems. Thanks for the post!

👍 Excellent rational action.

Late to respond, just got this batch today, April 14. They were well worth waiting for🤣

That definitely happens. It is why we use a crappy 57mm POS pop gun, while every other Navy uses the 76mm. BAE politics. Ridiculous. We offered the 76 for the same price and it fit in the same space. It has a guided munition that has a 26 mile range. Politics.
The HED decision was a douche 2-star trying to make a point. He did, and cost the navy $100M's and capability. His douche name is VADM (later) McCoy. He is an arrogant puke, and should have his retirement forfeit.

Thanks. I hope it does improve.

Actually, All Complex Machinery/Systems are at risk. People here Crude and think "Diesel, Gasoline, Oil". Not Kerosene, Plastics, Solvents, etc.
Next as fuel increases in cost, so does everything that requires shipping.
Tires will become more expensive, etc. etc.

And Kudos to Trump.
If I had to choose between BOOTS or EXPENSIVE BARRELS ($10/gal gas). No Boots!

And I think Trump should make an address to that effect:

Dear Fellow Americans,
I had a choice. Boots on the ground, or blockading Iran and starving them of the cash they need to run the IRCG. I choose the later. Gas prices will rise, and I apologize to all of the working men/women who will pay that price. But I believe the lives of our soldiers are worth saving by exploring this. Besides, the LEFTISTS believe Fossil Fuels are killing us, so here is there chance to GIVE THEM UP completely. Stop using the, because they are too expensive. Stop FLYING out to protests, stop buying new signs.

I would rather all Americans share the cost of this, than forcing a few to die for it.
If we have to, we will. But right now, this is a temporary pain at the pump.

I will consider bombing whatever wells Iran is still pulling oil from, so we don't have to suffer as long.

Your Favorite President!

I have to tell you, being close to the Navy, the changes coming from the administration are gothic, and just awesome! The next step we hear is taking the NAVSEA workforce from 10,000 to 1,000! FANTASTIC! They have totally changed the decision ownership to the people responsible to get things done. NAVSEA 05 (Technical "no"-sayers) are being spread to the wind,. Absolutely fantastic changes.
The system will be turn back into a mess again. It always does, but not right away.

Great changes.

👍 "The Navy are idiots, but are completely eclipsed by the Army in utter stupidity."
As long as they aren't audited, punished, and corrected for stupidity/corruption the situation will only continue and get worse.
Government has never been competitive in anything except, perhaps, when competing against other incompetent governments.

It's been my experience that decisions like this that are made in the military can be traced back to politics. A recent example would be when they picked the F-22 instead of the F-23 during the runoff was that even though the F-23 was the better plane, the F-22 was picked because of having more political support for the manufacturer.

More Jamie Daimon narcissism.

I don't know about this.

The fire could certainly have been managed better, but this implied that Ozone laundry eliminates/significantly reduces water usage, and it does not.

This may be a "green thing". However, I would NOT want steam from the engine room going to the laundry at all. This water is chemically controlled for corrosion et al, not just water, and has no business being cross connected to a stupid use like laundry. In a submarine, such piping would have to go through both reactor compartment bullheads. Those penetrations would cost more than the whole stupid laundry.

Maybe the ozone thing sucks and is wasteful, but this article does not defend it well. Fundamentally the ozone eliminates soap, not water.

Idiocy on the part of the Navy is wide and deep. If anyone cared about cost, green or warfighting, they would have deployed the hybrid electric drive system we developed and tested almost 20 years ago on DDG51. It saved ~$3M/yr fuel cost (depot not delivered), increased time on station considerable, and offered ~3MW of additional electrical power to the ship, that is needed for the AMDR and laser weapons. We had to sell it all over the navy, and because the part that buys equipment doesn't buy fuel, no one cared. So, we went to Congress and got $ to fund it. (today, we'd just do it ourselves) Then after we teamed with our competitor, pooled $, designed, built and tested it, the Navy put it out to competition, and selected a cheap commercial system. That system was too big to fit both shafts, had massive EMI issues, and when tested at sea, it failed miserably, not able to control in any sea state, just tripping offline over and over. Seven (7) were built, and they sit in the Philadelphia shipyard gathering dust. Our system was ~$10M/ship, saved $3M/yr, paying itself off in three years, and resolved power issues. We have ours back and use it for testing various stuff. The Navy are idiots, but are completely eclipsed by the Army in utter stupidity.

"If it moves, salute it. If it don't move paint it."

That old bromide is part of Navy culture. One would think that every sailor knows the inherent danger of spontaneous combustion caused by drying paint and piles of fabrics.

The absolute absurdity of infusing garments & fabrics with Ozone should be a court martial offense, and the imbecile that approved it should be charges with willful destruction of Navy property as well as interfering with ship movement.

Basically, anything and everything until some Green idiot gets the death penalty. How else are they going to learn the lesson and not attempt something that stupid ever again!

Sneaky commies. ;^)

Who would have thought dirty laundry would supplant missiles as the means to take out a US carrier?

Here's to ya...

WOW, Dobrien! Huge and great collection kicked off by Rod Serling and closed with winners shaking hands. Tony Soprano has it nailed. Gosh, so many memes and so little time! Thank you for posting!!!