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But should some stupid country starts a war with US?
Me dino sez make them wish they never even thought about it.
The economies of Iran, Venezuela, and Cuba are disintegrating, that's why there reports that the Islamic regime wants to strike out. Russia and China could face the same situation. These countries are still operating economies like medieval empires.
Macron might be French for Merkin.
May as in mayday, mayday.
The supposed intelligence about a planned attack on American assets or people is a smoke screen to put a carrier battle group in the area. Iran has made use of small, fast gunboats to harass US warships, and now those boats have been armed with antishipping missiles that could sink tankers and block oil shipments from their Sunni enemies like Saudi Arabia. Given that threat, two things could happen if Iran gambles on the attempt: US guided missile cruisers could provide cover for tankers by knocking down the Iranian missiles; if Iran sends too many missiles for the defense and begins hitting the tankers, US carrier aircraft will take out the gunboats.
It is possible that the conflict will end with limited naval action, rather than having to put boots on the ground. After reminding the mullahs of the tremendous force we can bring to bear, we'll make an offer to sit down and work toward lifting sanctions, provided they change their aggressive actions against their neighbors, and give up on nuclear weapons.
Since I had friends in the Marine barracks, you can turn the whole place into glass for all I care.
Nobody wants war but they are "seeing signs" in the Trump admin that the president wants it.
The left is the deep state. What the deep state wants, the left wants.
It is the ultimate means of creating chaos and reap the benefits of it. Of course they want it.
My random guess crystal ball:
We destroy some oil platforms, and the problem is quickly forgotten.
Trump does seek a second term. Pence becomes president in 2021.
A predominately Sunni neighbor country gets the wrong message from the US Ambassador and thinks we won't mess with them as long as they don't harass oil freighters. So they invade a neighboring country. President Pence helps put to together an international coalition to oust them.
Prior to Pence's election in Nov 2020, the stock market suffers an historic crash in Oct of '19, ending the decade of the teens, which will always be remembered for an upbeat zeitgeist when the stock market tripled. Pence has to raise taxes to service the huge debts created during the Trump administration. The taxes will eventually lead to a balanced budget. Reforms in the Middle East start a slow process to more secular democratic governments in the Arab world. It turns out Trump had drug addiction and mental illness in office, but no one cares much because his results (economy, Middle East peace) were good, he turned out to be innocent of all suspected illegal dealings in office, and it's bad to make fun of the mentally ill. Despite things going generally well, the recession of '23 helps make Pence a one-term president, through no fault of Pence's.
The recession of '23 feels like it drags on and on for years, except for people in biotech. Personalized drug treatments upend the medical industry. Many diseases thought to be terminal are now treatable. It's not until 2030, seven years after the recession of '23 that the rising tide lifts all boats. There is also a peace dividend from peace in the Middle East, which Trump is now being partially credited for helping to build, and from balanced budget that Pence fought for years earlier. Things are going so well, people start to wonder if we'll cure aging soon and who will get the treatments.
All that optimism is interrupted in 2033 when a nanofiber attack in Kuala Lumpur kills thousand of random innocent people in a horrific way by nanofibers damaging their lungs, ears, noses, and throats. The world takes it hard because international travel, trade, and communication are more common than now, and an international trade group acts as loose world government, partly uniting all countries. The attack is linked to network of extremists who reject global trade, capitalism, and seek a simpler time. Over-reaction to this KL nanofiber attack causes a global recession. By the mid 2040s, though, "KL-Nano" is receding into history, and new cryptocurrency financing vehicles funnel a lot of investment money to the next generation of biotech and nanotech. The first mile-high building is completed using new matierals. There is talk of a space elevator in the future to lower the cost of travelling to space, where 150 people live full-time working in research, mining, and factories.
I have no notion that any of this narrative will come true, but history really does repeat itself, so I would be surprised if I didn't come close to some correct guesses just by luck.
Spouting fiction, just like the entire mainstream media has been since mid-2016.
When the facts do not match their deluded reality, they just lie and libel.
Just add 2 letters to get libe__l.
If he realizes he's likely to lose, has a successful business that he enjoys to go back to, and faces pressure from Republicans to elect a more traditional Republican, I can see it happening. I think a moderate traditional Republican could easily beat Sanders or anyone promoting socialistic policies.
Mike Pompeo announces that all sanctions against Iran are fully in play and no exceptions (real). Iran continues its belligerence because they are homicidal maniacs and their loss of oil revenues start to take effect. Trump begins supplying Saudi Arabia with drones to retaliate for Iranian sabotage on Saudi oil tankers. Iran begins to ratchet things up and builds a missile platform protected by SAM's overlooking the Hormuz Strait (using Russian hardware). They then declare the Strait off-limits to anyone who supports the sanctions. The world ignores them until Iran uses the platform to target a major oil tanker passing out of the Strait - sinking it and effectively blocking the Strait for three months while a salvage crew works to get the ship out of the way. In the meantime, a US/Saudi air raid wipes out not only the missile site, but every Iranian oil platform standing in retaliation. When the Iranians launch fighters, the US destroys their airbases with strikes from air-launched cruise missiles from that bomber fleet poised nearby (also real).
Because Iran can't do anything militarily, they ramp up their support of Hamas and begin supporting further harassment of Israel. Bolstered by Trump's support and the military strikes against Iran, Israel declares that they aren't going to put up with Hamas any longer and any further strikes by Hamas are going to result in the targeting of Hamas leaders in addition to anyone carrying out strikes on Israeli territories. Hamas dares Israel to do something by launching rockets and Israel carries out its threats by taking out ten Hamas militant leaders with air strikes. Enraged an defiant, Hamas appeals to the UN and launches more rockets. The US blocks yet another resolution condemning Israel all while Israel retaliates against another ten Hamas leaders.
The Democrats wait until August of 2020 to attempt to Impeach Trump. They wager that this will weaken the President in the lead-up to the elections. Several Democrats in swing states vote against Impeachment but the measure passes with a slight majority. The Senate then takes up the Conviction trial headed by Chief Justice Roberts which fails 42 - 58 - again with several swing-state Democrats voting against because of a total lack of evidence.
The Republicans use the farce trial and complete lack of any substance in Democrats charges - to take back the House by a few scant votes. Democrats lose another 3 seats in the Senate. Trump is re-elected over Cory Booker by 48 electoral college votes - as well as a majority of the popular vote - in large measure because of the progress in building the southern border wall but also because the economy continues to hum along.
Early in 2021, William Barr announces criminal charges to be levied against every player involved in the Steele Dossier scandal including James Comey. They are tried and convicted. They roll on former White House officials such as Loretta Lynch and the Page and Stryck texts even indict the Former President himself. The 2022 elections are a landslide of red where the Republicans gain another seven Senate seats (close to a super-majority) and another 34 House seats.
The big downer during this period is the growing instability in Europe thanks to unlimited immigration policies and a failing healthcare system. Europe descends into an economic downturn which drags much of the rest of the world with it. By 2022, instead of admitting failure and lightening the tax burdens, European leaders led by Germany and France impose higher taxes. The resulting economic shocks send the EU into financial chaos and general rioting breaks out in several major European cities. Tourism shrinks to almost nothing, further exacerbating things and sending the EU into recession.
The EU's bad fortunes are also bad for Russia as their purchases of oil slow down despite the Iranian embargo. Without oil revenues, the Russian economy also slows down - bolstered only by an uptick in arms sales to the Middle East. Russia limps along - still engaged in a stalemated conflict in the Ukraine which drags on for four more years with little respite.
China's fake economy takes a nosedive as US tariffs and a failing EU economy not only push prices up but demand down. Faced with either fixing its internal problems or going to war, China decides to see if the US can fight on two fronts and uses its bases on coral atolls to declare exclusionary access zones across much of the South China Sea up to and including territorial waters of the Phillippines, Vietnam, and even Japan. They even torpedo a US destroyer who challenges them. In turn, US fast-attack submarines attack and sink one of China's two ballistic missile submarines. China backs off.
But now it is time for the US economy to hit a wall. Burgeoning entitlement programs and reckless spending and deficits hit a wall with no one to purchase US bonds. The US has no choice but to print money - driving up inflation and spurring another round of Quantitative Easing. When this too fails and even the Fed begins to stop buying the fake debt it is creating, entitlement spending along with debt service force a liquidity crisis in the United States. A massive run on the banks begins and ends with a total destruction of the US economy. The entire world then goes into a deep economic malaise and wars quickly start as the only way to get people doing something productive/destructive. So begins WW III.
I can see a European recession, debt crisis, and contagion, but related to entitlements not immigration policy. I think the scenario where China challenges the US militarily is very unlikely, BUT the consequences are so great we should take the unlikely scenario seriously.
I definitely see the US entitlement and debt crisis you describe, but I think politicians will take action, making the hard decision of cutting entitlements, military, mass incarceration, investments in research and technology while increasing taxes slightly. This will avert the crisis. Politicians will use it as "an opportunity" to cut programs they don't like or enact taxes they'd like to enact anyway.
It reminds me of a part from Back to the Future when Marty is being chased all over by Biff. https://youtu.be/tNNXVpk72uA Biff and his goons are so intent on ruining Marty that they ignore the manure truck in front of them - and pay the price.
"I suspect Comey, people involved in the Steele Dossier, and President Obama are not guilty of crimes."
Well, we'll wait and see the IG's report and the investigation now being opened up by Barr to investigate these matters. But as we are now seeing, those involved are now all pointing fingers at each other in an attempt to deflect investigation off themselves. This isn't a matter of third-party criticism, this is their own antics exposing that they know they are getting busted and the only card left is to try to rat on someone bigger than them to get a plea deal.
"I definitely see the US entitlement and debt crisis you describe, but I think politicians will take action..."
Given that people have been warning about the debt crisis for decades and nothing has been done, I think its more than highly unlikely. Why? Because it would mean a serious rollback of Democrat power - and they aren't going to let that happen. When was the last time politicians cut programs? Republicans couldn't even repeal Obamacare...
When you talk about finger-pointing and antics, I hope that is channeled into more keeping an eye on one another.
" I think its more than highly unlikely. Why? Because it would mean a serious rollback of Democrat power"
They (without any regard to party) wait until there's a crisis that allows them to do things they couldn't do otherwise. "You never let a serious crisis go to waste." What's the alternative to taking action? Letting a fiscal and monetary crisis get even worse? The only result will be action to fix the problem, along with initiatives they couldn't do outside a crisis and lots and lots of bellyaching and "hoocudanode".
"Republicans couldn't even repeal Obamacare"
They should have admitted aloud that it was based on a reasonable idea from conservative think tanks and they just want to change its name. It was laughable how some politicians were running on repealing it while assuring voters the replacement would have the same spirit of PPACA and even use the same language.
The only positive reform came from a Trump campaign promise to make providers reveal prices. The kept the promise, and starting Jan 2019 you can now get a price list from any providers. They should go further by making it easier to get info about negotiated pricing, and add things to make it easier for providers and consumers to work out deals independent of insurance. I truly believe Trump is a clown, but whoever made that promise and kept it should be given more authority to enact reforms.
Agreed.
"When you talk about finger-pointing and antics, I hope that is channeled into more keeping an eye on one another."
If there was actually an eye towards creating better policy, I might be okay with it, but it is just one hypocritical statement after another.
"What's the alternative to taking action? Letting a fiscal and monetary crisis get even worse?"
I didn't say I didn't want them to take action, only that I doubted they would before the whole thing exploded in their faces. Why? Because if Democrats (and some Republicans) were interested in the long game of American freedom, they wouldn't be instituting many of the policies they have which require extensive government apparatus and high taxes to implement.
"They should have admitted aloud that it was based on a reasonable idea from conservative think tanks and they just want to change its name."
Uh, not sure where you heard that but I'd sure like a source. If you are referring to the Massachusetts healthcare plan Romney got beat over the head for, it was fundamentally changed by Democrats after Romney left office. It is no longer any semblance of what the original policy suggested.
"They should go further by making it easier to get info about negotiated pricing..."
I agree. And the best way to do that is to fundamentally alter the way people go about obtaining healthcare insurance. Most especially, we need to get government - and all its waste and bureaucracy - out of healthcare entirely. No restrictions imposed by States to create and maintain monopolies. No requirements that hospitals admit anyone into the Emergency Rooms. Let people buy insurance a la carte so they can get what they can afford which matches their needs - not a bunch of stuff they aren't going to use but have to have because the government says so. And make insurance a private decision rather than an employer one. That lets people take their insurance with them even if they move or change jobs. No more need for COBRA.
If we "destroy some oil platforms" will will have attacked Iranian land bases as well. They fought against Iraq and fought them to a stand stil over their encroughing across the border way bask in the 90'. They would fignt us even harder and longer.
There may be a stock market pull back, but a crash is not likey under either Trump of Pence.
I do like your sense of history and historical projection. Well thought outy and cogent. I just have a slightly different take on things. Conditions ffor your scenario are not right -- yet. Would not take much to make them right. I just don't see those conditions moving in that direction -- yet.
+1 (more if I could)
That you had to take wheelbarrow load of money to buy even the essential food items in the supermarket?
The producers produced because they had the economic sense to do so. And the consumers consumed because they were hired and made the means to buy the goods.
I assume this is what you had in mind.
I respectfully disagree.
In the 80s, though, the US destroyed some oil platforms and the attacks on oil freighters stopped.
"Trump will run and win in 2020. "
I omitted the world not, but you got my meaning that he will not run in that scenario. I think he will probably will not serve another term because I see so many scenarios where that happens. Maybe the most likely one is he wants to go back to running his businesses, he doesn't enjoy the job, and he faces pressure from traditional Republicans. If he runs, I don't see him winning. He won on a fluke before despite losing by nearing 3 million votes. The fluke won't necessarily break in his favor again. Anything is possible, but it's not in my crystal ball.
Oh really?
How do you know all these things you are serving up to us on a plate, oh wise one? "Observations" on the personal life of the president, e.g. what he likes and dislikes?
Trump will win. He did not win on a fluke but by the votes of people who are sane and have normal brain functions. The same will happen in 2020, given the corrupt and corrosive "ideas" of the Dem candidates whose only motivation is to push the country back to the swamp state as it was under Obama.
It's just guesses. Regarding what President Trump likes and dislikes, I suspect he ran for president as a publicity stunt and didn't want to job. I've never met him, though, or anyone who knows him. My impressions are all from interviews with people who know him.
"[President Trump] did not win on a fluke ":
He lost by nearly 3 million votes. There is no reason to think it will break in his favor again. It's kind of amazing that he only lost by 3 million. There's an element of society I never come into contact with who doesn't accomplish much but can be riled up by a circus. I cannot imagine Trump losing the popular vote again by anything less than 3 million unless the Democrats nominate a socialist, which it seems like they might. It's as if facing a situation where they'll almost certainly win, they look for creative ways to lose. I still have distant hope that out of all this nonsense comes a new push to reduce gov't intrusion and to reduce borrowing and gov't expenditures back to Obama-era levels or lower.
"comes a new push to reduce gov't intrusion and to reduce borrowing and gov't expenditures back to Obama-era levels or lower. "
Back to Obama era levels? You must be joking. He was the one who hiked up gov borrowing to the trillions.
Gov intrusion? Have you been sleeping during Obama's tenure? He was the one who burdened all and every segment with regulations. It is thanks to president Trump that some of them have been lifted and the economy can breath again.
"There's an element of society I never come into contact with who doesn't accomplish much but can be riled up by a circus.
Yes, that is the base of the left.
I would hate that job. I only saw them at the gym, and now I have gym with no big TVs.