North Korea: A Solution
Posted by DrZarkov99 7 years, 3 months ago to Politics
I would suggest a rational solution to the problem of North Korea is for the U.S. to suggest that we would be happy to see China depose Kim Jong Un and install a government more in line with China. That would eliminate the current problem and also give the Chinese a sense of security, controlling their border state. We could sweeten the pot by offering trade deals to the "new" North Korea that would help offset the Chinese occupation cost. The North Korean people would certainly be better off under a Chinese puppet state. What makes this possible is that North Korea's military forces are aimed almost entirely at the South, with only a border guard at the Chinese border to prevent the escape of its own citizens. The Chinese military should be able to sweep in and disable North Korea's nuclear facilities and missile launch systems before the North Koreans could react. Hopefully I'm not alone in thinking this way.
Pros:
- Anything's better than the North Korean current gov't.
- Maybe freed from the harsh controls, in a few years North Koreans would feel more kinship with South Korea and demand their same level of freedoms.
- It breaks the perceived benefit of having nuclear weapons that no one dare invade a nuclear-armed country.
Cons:
- Might China see it as a test run for Taiwan? They think they have a stronger case to invade Taiwan. OTOH, China' probably values stable foreign trade over Taiwan.
- Might it be hard to plan the attack without North Korean leadership getting wind of it, through spies or someone in the Chinese gov't who thinks the plan is too risky or thinks the result would not be favorable to China?
- Might expanding China's sphere of influence strengthen China's repressive gov't system?
- If North Korea succeed in detonating even one low-yield nuclear weapon anywhere (South Korea, China, against invading Chinese troops in North Korea, it would break the 70 year taboo against nuclear weapons. OTOH, that might happen anyway and not at a time of China's, South Korea's, or US's choosing.
So I think it make a lot of sense.
But as soon as power changed hands, they'd be thrilled. More than thrilled. Just glad to have a chance at being alive.
The U.S. would be compelled to react to a Taiwan invasion very negatively, mainly by trade sanctions on China. In past years we might have supported Taiwan militarily, but I believe that era has passed.
You have a good point about keeping plans secret, which is probably why we haven't heard so much as a whisper of this strategy. Another complication is that Russia also has to be informed, since they too have a border with North Korea, and need to be prepared just in case a paranoid Kim Jong Un lashes out in all directions in response to a Chinese invasion.
South Korea is probably the biggest worry for spies and leaks, since they are the primary target of North Korea's espionage establishment. They still have to be informed, but if the notice is kept to only the top leadership leaks may be successfully avoided.
Good comments.
attack the usa is not going to happen. china shutting them down is not going to happen.
our government needs to have a problem to keep us citizens jacked up like they did for us after ww2 and the red menace. Russia as rand pointed out was and still is a paper tiger so is nk. so all we really have to be concerned with is when middle east looneys walk into us based shopping malls. then we will see how long if ever our government takes to do what has to be don to the middles east looneys.
There are only three countries that matter in the world, China, Russia and the United States. All the rest are allied with one of these or struggling to be noticed. Behind the scenes the big three need to determine who goes with who and accept responsibility for maintain order in their area of responsibility. It needs to be understood that if they threaten each other it is just words to scare the bit players. War is just a habit left over from Kings distracting the peasants from realizing that they were not rulers but big leaches and unnecessary. It was easier to have our potential revolutionaries knock off our cousins problem children than to create other means to controlling them when the deals they made with the clerics weren't totally effective.
China could play hardball and withdraw its oil and support. The offer for China to control N Korea (which as I remember was what THEY wanted in the 50's and which was what started the Korean war) would appeal to China, but probably NOT to fat boy. Tough road.
Russia has always been paranoid about having what it perceives as not entirely friendly neighbors. Given the country's history of hundreds of invaders over the centuries, this is understandable. Likewise, China lost its sense of comfort with the opium wars and destructive invasion by other nations. We need to be aware of these concerns, and be willing to constrain the itch to "make things right." Our lack of understanding of an obstinate Middle East culture is part of what's gotten us into the longest war in our history there.
I think your on the money here...pass it on to Tillerson.
Reasons it could work:
1. China has been tethered to North Korea since the end of WW II and the Communist takeover. They were the backing of North Korea in the Korean War. Without their assistance in military hardware and ammunition, North Korea would never have attacked. They have continued to supply military assistance for 60+ years since, but that was under Kim Jong Un's grandfather and father, who were still tyrants but less spoiled. China is no doubt aware of Kim Jong Un's petulance and childishness as they have issued an incredibly rare rebuke to him. They may see this as a way to distance themselves from his reign.
2. By intervening to rein in North Korea, China actually garners good will with other nations.
Reasons it also may fail:
1. North Korea is a useful lapdog. People are less apt to think China a danger with rabid North Korea shooting missiles into the sea of Japan, even though militarily, economically, and territorially China is by far the bigger threat.
2. China actually gains from having someone to threaten the United States' superiority where they have some control but don't have to suffer much of the fallout if an actual war breaks out. The US controls the air and the sea, so the fighting would be restricted mainly to the Korean peninsula. Many critical parts to both North Korean and US weapons are manufactured in China - they can sell to both sides.
If China withdrew its financial support from fat boy, his military would probably go after China or do something rash to the USA or South Korea.
I have an alternative idea. Let fat boy have his nuclear weapons that both he and China seem to want. But we arm south Korea and Japan with nuclear weapons, in "mutually assured destruction" form. It worked with Russia and the US- neither pushed the button for fear the retaliation would be unthinkable.
Then the USA stops whiining about N Korea having to give up its nuclear weapons (which its NEVER going to do). We issue one more statement and then pretty much ignore fat boy in the future. We tell him "If you rain nuclear weapons on the USA or one of our allies, we will obliterate your country and make it radioactive for the next 100 years and make sure that YOU are dead. So long as you dont fire at us, we wont fire at you and you can maintain your control over your people".
And that would be the end of fat boy controlling the media and getting attention.
All that being said, China needs to be made very aware that North Korea may be leaving South Korea and Japan with no other choice but to adopt nuclear weapons. Just maybe that will be the tipping point to make them shut the NK asylum down.
It's becoming more apparent that China is not comfortable with conducting military action unless it has no other option. The recent potential conflict between India and China ended when it became apparent India was not going to be intimidated, and there was real danger of serious shooting. China decided it wasn't worth fighting over and backed down from building the offending mountain highway. China needs to realize that doing nothing about KJU may mean they will be drawn into an unwanted military conflict they want no part of.
One thing we should NOT do is give fat boy any more attention than his fouth world country deserves.
Kim fat boy is a tumor of cancer , soon his host body (NK) Will die from his govt (cancer). Watch out for his connections with the Mid East types.
Whenever I see something in the media that makes people think anything "Obvious", I start thinking it is a Psychological Operation.
Remember WMDs? We gotta go get them?
Remember we can fight them there or fight them here? More wars? things only get worse.
And in the end, it always seems to benefit the Military Industrial Complex. Strange...
Lets see how the NK "threat" is working:
South Korea and Japan just made MAJOR Purchases of our military equipment to help defend themselves.
cui bono? (Who Benefits) I guess someone got some HUGE orders...
Even the Sequestration that hit the US Military. What's the answer? Buy more equipment? cui bono?
Fear (Terrorism) and the Threat of war, are great motivators to get people to spend money, or suffer harshness they normally would never accept.
Also, NK is a Chinese puppet already. they want to be able to sell their technology (like we do) all around the world and get paid. And they have REAL demonstrations of it working.
China is probably selling more now as well...
this feels staged in order to get public opinion moving. As most things do.
they are a sovereign nation. They can develop whatever they want. Who are we to stop them?
Just let them know: Welcome the Atomic Era. Please understand that ANY aggressive move will be treated as an all out Nuclear attack, and we will remove you from the face of the earth, using nukes.
MAD workse
Ah, politics! Don'tcha love it?
ist state? Probably we're better off if they quarrel
with each other.
I understand that the North Koreans are probab-
ly worse off than the Chinese, but maybe if
they get fed up enough, they will rebel.
Your idea should be forwarded to Trump, Congress, the Pentagon, and China. The only ones that might/would strongly object are Kim Jong Un and a few of his top people. The only danger might/would be if Un might/would go berserk and initiate a full blown attack on South Korea and launch everything else at his disposal wherever it goes. I think the man's completely suicidal to maintain his total power. He'd rather blow Korea completely off the face of the earth rather than give up his power. It's interesting how little we hear about the UN's position on anything except when Nikki Haley says something, maybe that's a good thing.
I do think that a new, China-imposed regime would help get the process of modernizing North Korea started. If nothing else, it could be a new source of low cost labor for Chinese firms. Rising labor cost in China threatens to undercut their ability to sell cheap products to the rest of the world, and NK could help fill the gap for a while. That would incentivize China to upgrade the NK power system, to support factories there.