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You mention the Suns role and in fact that is the driver of temp increases from Late 1800's to 1998
Unfortunately this heat hysteria has been a constant drum beat for the last 2 decades and it could not have happened at a worse time. The Grand Solar minimum, that cycle of the sun. We have now entered into the begining of what in the past has been referred to as a mini ice age.
It has weakened our electromagnetisphere and the results as history shows is a devastation of crop losses. In addition over the last 2000 years a major volcano blows during each grand solar minimum spewing huge amounts of particles blocking out the sun like the clouds that are formed by the cosmic rays.
Not only normalcy but the AGW will certainly hurt our adjustment to indoor farming which absolutely will be required for survival.
Obviously you should not take my word, but you should seriously look into it. As a starting point Adapt2030 will give reference points to his info and he encourages every listener to do their own homework. Suspicious observers gives a rundown on the space weather. Then John Casey a highly credited man and his book. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTJCY...
Do you have a link to your article on Mr Willie Soon. I would enjoy reading it as you are a wonderfully articulate author.
slàinte mhath,
DOB
"Regardless of what’s causing the Sun’s strange behavior, Hathaway and Penn, who are both in the solar prediction business, anticipate that Cycle 25, expected to peak in 2024, will be the weakest yet."
http://http://www.skyandtelescope.com/astron...
http://www.thesavvystreet.com/why-i-d...
Seems there is, not only a 30/60 year mean ocean level east/west cycle (NA/NP) decadal osculation but a 60/65 year osculation in atmospheric circulation, temperature and hang on to your Sunday go to meeting hat: length of day! (seems there are variations in earths rotational speeds-abet- micro in measurements)
Too bad they didn't put it all in context of the big climate picture...Solar Minimums/GSM's
I think that would be a good one for
Mr. David DuByne
/"What is at stake is a fundamentalist attack on capitalism..."
Meaning that "climate science" has been a propaganda machine on a vast scale... urging sweeping political action on its conclusions almost as soon as they are published and long before they are confirmed...
However, forget about the small CO2 reduction percentages they are talking about, I've got a simple solution that could/would actually reduce our man made CO2 contributions to the atmosphere by about 50%. The 50% or so of the population that actually believe in this climate crises should set the example for the rest of us naysayers to follow, not by trying to jam it down our throats. I'd suggest that they get rid of their fossil fuel burning vehicles, shut off their electricity, and reduced all of their CO2 emission contributions by 100%. Okay, give them a break, in reality, just set the example by cutting down by only 50% to start the ball rolling. If it proves beneficial, we'll all follow along. We don’t need official agreements and commissions to try to do the right thing. Perhaps we can even do better on our own in developing technologies that might actually work. Private enterprise seems to do a much better job at making things better anyway. I’m always astounded at the technologies that come out of Israel, that better our world. I was wrong once before, I didn't believe in seat belts, I bitched about them, and had excuses for not using them. As cars started to put them in I eventually started to use them. Now I automatically use them even to simply back out of my garage. I learned by example. Somehow it became law anyway, but who cares now, it makes good sense. And, Paris doesn't sound like a reasonable place to conduct any type of agreement to me. I'm a Vietnam Veteran, look what the Paris Peace Accords, and our representatives, did for Vietnam. We dumped them, I'm still embarrassed for our congress about that. It didn't have to be that way. We signed an agreement then we all but ignored it. Hmmm, remember part of that failure had to do with trying and succeeding in taking a president down. Perhaps now that's what it's really all about.
Same scenario for Obamacare, give the people the choice and let them sign up for Obamacare, or Trumpcare. Do like the TV and internet providers, make them sign up under a two year contract and penalize them for early cancelation. And make sure our term limited representatives have the exact same choices.
Today I see the same things happening, our politicians, the media, and half the population, telling the world how bad the US is. With the career politicians we have, if they were any good, wouldn’t we think perhaps they might have done something about where we are today. Should they not be held responsible to taking us to where we are? They run the show, do a lousy job, then blame someone else. People in mind are not smart enough to see the truth, they react mostly on emotion and keep electing freaks like John Kerry, Maxine Waters, Nancy Pelosi, (Harry's gone), even Chuck Schumer now. If they can’t find someone else to blame for their personal failures they just take their que from Obama and blame George Bush, or today our President Trump. It will take years for us to even comprehend the damage that Obama and the likes like John Kerry, Hillary Clinton, have done to this country. And it will take at least another term for Trump to change the direction they took us. Fortunately Hillary's most recent actions are actually showing the dems her true colors. And if the world can't see Maxine Water's true colors by now, we're doomed.
All the crazy Greenies do is gnashing of teeth, beating of chests and crying how bad Global Warming is. If they believe in it so insanely, they should get off their gluteus maximus and go plant Trees!
PM me if she would like to meet and I will give you contact info.
The point about NYT is completely correct. NYT mentions "carbon pollution" twice in one article: https://nyti.ms/2stfsY5 I agree it's a questionable choice of words. We're talking about human activities playing a large roll in increasing the concentration of a gas that was 300ppm to 500ppm and changing concentrations of trace gases. That's not "pollution" like soot. From a legal/economic standpoint, though, it's something people do on their property that preponderance of the evidence shows damages the value of other property. So I can forgive them colloquially calling it "pollution," the same way we talk about "noise pollution".
I would go further on your counter-argument to the capitalism-leads-to-war argument. Not only were world wars not caused by capitalism, but modern capitalism has eliminated (so far) the spoils of war. If China assembles PCBs and "FANG" companies put them to use for a billion customers around the world, there's no incentive for the gov't to fight each other to try to have more of the value-chain within their borders. The saying goes no two countries that both have McDonalds have gone to war. (I think there are a few small counter examples, e.g. Serbia and US.)
I see the last two paragraphs completely reversed from your view. You rightly say never before has their been such motivation to get a specific answer from science. Maybe it's comparable to the motivation to find evidence humans were created rather than evolved along side other animals. All the wealth we have created by releasing energy stored in carbon bonds provides a huge incentive to deny science showing hidden costs to it. There are a few extremists you quote who apparently really are happy if it turns out what powers our economy is more costly than we thought. I do not know how those people think. I can't imagine anyone wants to go back to a pre-industrial existence. The vast majority of us want to find ways to keep building more wealth and we wish none of our actions accidentally damaged other people's property. Never before has there been so much motivation to get a desired answer, indeed.
As can be seen from the above figures, the two cycles were nearly identical, and yet the IPCC says the models can explain the early 1900s cycle with only natural forcings, but anthropogenic CO2 is needed for the later cycle. There appears to be a serious problem with the models when two identical cycles have two very different causes.
The cycle length is approximately 62 years, with maxima around 1879, 1942 and 2002, and minima around 1910 and 1972.
When the claim is made that the Earth has warmed 0.74 degrees from 1906 – 2005 (IPCC AR4 [http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-rep...]), they are spuriously ignoring the 60-year cycle and arbitrarily choosing a start and end for a linear trend within a non-linear cycle. The red line on the figure below shows the 0.74 degrees per century. The linear warming trend shown when accounting for the cycle is actually about 0.4 degrees per century as shown by the blue line on the figure below.
Is this saying the solar system's changing center of mass affects the area under the curve of the earth's distance^2 from the sun? If so, people in this field ought to be able to work out these integrals for each year and then see if that correlates with the 60-year cycle in temperatures. (I'm way outside my field, so I don't even know if the 60-year cycle is real. )
“If this trend continues, there will be almost no spots in Cycle 25, and we might be going into another Maunder Minimum,” Penn states. The first Maunder Minimum occurred during the second half of the 17th century. Almost no spots were seen on the Sun during this time, which coincided with Europe’s Little Ice Age.
Orbital mechanics are predictable. I wonder if they've integrated for each year and compared the results to the cycle. I can think of other ways to do it, like plot d^2 vs daily temperature (not integrating) and then trying to remove the effects of the seasons. The trouble with that, though, is you can post hoc cherry pick to get the results you want. The yearly integral method makes the most sense to me. This is way outside my field though.
http://www.suspicious0bservers.org/ A and watch
The extremely well made tutorial about our planets sun. Short and concise . The site has a daily 2-4 min sun forecast i.e. Solar winds , sunspot, CME's
I will be impressed CG if you educate yourself and
Consider this Grand Solar Minimum for you and you families future.