Buy High and Sell Low? by Robert Gore
In contexts of uncertainty, herding is what Prechter terms “pre-rational.” It is not governed by the same part of the brain and the same mental processes as solving a math problem or rational herding in contexts of certainty—queuing up early with your friends for what you all know will be a sold out concert. Pre-rational herding impulses take precedence over rational reflexion and are the fundamental psychological driver of inherently uncertain financial markets. So-called rational reflexion comes into play after the impulsive imperative, and is nothing more than rationalization for impulsive action or inaction performed either before or after the rationalization. Following the herd in financial markets brings participants to grief, because the herd always has and always will buy high and sell low.
This is an excerpt of Robert Gore's review of Robert Prechter's Socionomic Theory of Finance. For the full review, please click the above link.
This is an excerpt of Robert Gore's review of Robert Prechter's Socionomic Theory of Finance. For the full review, please click the above link.
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- 1Posted by CircuitGuy 7 years, 10 months agoHe says short-term rates leading rather than lagging monetary policy shows that central bankers' decisions respond to the same moods that investors respond to. That could be, but couldn't it also be that central banks have leaks and politically-connected investors get foreknowledge of central bank policy? In this case, central bank monetary policy could actually be an exogenous factor, contrary to Mr. Prechter's theory.Mark as read | Best of... | Permalink|
- 2Posted by straightlinelogic 7 years, 10 months agoThe relationship seems constant across central banks world wide. Plus, there have been times when central banks have gone contrary to general market expectations, with big moves after the announcement, with the moves themselves predicted by EWI, but seemingly a surprise to most market participants. Besides, if central banks didn't follow interest rates, you would think there would be times, for whatever reason, when central banks when contrary to where short terms were indicating they would go. By and large they haven't.Mark as read | Parent | Best of... | Permalink|
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