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"97% of scientists agree" cannot be true!

Posted by coaldigger 7 years, 10 months ago to Science
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Alex Epstein is the man with the facts as laid out in the referenced article but from my own experience I am certain that nothing worthy of study by a scientist is so cut and dried that 97% would agree on it. Of all the crimes that can be committed to enslave others lying is the most insidious.
SOURCE URL: http://www.forbes.com/sites/alexepstein/2015/01/06/97-of-climate-scientists-agree-is-100-wrong/#42300bf7187f


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    Posted by ProfChuck 7 years, 10 months ago
    Most people don't know the difference between climate politics and climate science. They are two very different things. Science seeks to understand while politics seeks control and power.
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  • 10
    Posted by Lucky 7 years, 10 months ago
    The 97% figure is fraudulent.
    There was survey of many scientists. Responses were put into categories.
    There was one, and only one, category that supported the human responsibility proposition, that was people who described themselves as climate scientists. All of these worked for gov or semi gov entities dependent on the carbon change scare for money.
    When I use the word fraud here I do not mean accident or mistake but deliberate intention to mislead.

    The story of economist Bjørn Lomborg is instructive.
    Having been fed and exposed to the great prevalent myth of carbon change, he is a believer.
    He worked out that the costs of the alarmist forecasts of the damage greatly exceeded the (astronomical) costs proposed to 'de-carbonize" economies. For this he has been hounded as a denier, has been subject to mass protest campaigns and has to be careful about appearing in public.
    It is not science or economics that the protest is about, but the great gravy train.
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    • Posted by $ nickursis 7 years, 10 months ago
      Right on the "money". This whole climate change debacle is a manipulation of facts to suit an agenda, and a money maker. But the comments above are just as applicable, it is "religion".
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  • Posted by $ Abaco 7 years, 10 months ago
    That is a figure intended for the useful idiot masses. Many of us here are not them.

    Just this morning I was contemplating the decade of research I have embarked in that has lead me to be very, very sure that I know something very few know. Why is that? Because the media has been telling people that what I found has been "widely debunked". I like to ask people, "Really? Which study was that?" and watch the blank stare... We live in very interesting times. Science isn't just dead. It's swole up like a balloon on the side of the road and covered with flies...
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  • Posted by ProfChuck 7 years, 10 months ago
    "The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary."
    H. L. Menkin had it right. This is a perfect description of climate hysteria.
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  • Posted by DrZarkov99 7 years, 10 months ago
    It's all about the numbers. To quote Gladstone once again: "There are lies, damned lies, and then there are statistics."
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    • Posted by lrshultis 7 years, 10 months ago
      Statistics works well when based upon data about real things. It gives results upon which sample spaces for probability calculations can be produced. The problem with statistics when applied to weather and local weather patterns is that, as can be inferred from Tuesday's episode of Startalk where the climate scientist explained that the future climate needs not be predictable, which he seems, as does the IPCC, not to be predictable but by statistical analysis of statistics, through many models, one can obtain good guesses about the results of the unknown weather patterns far into the future because errors will cancel out. But there is no way to predict weather far into the future, so there can be no statistics without data, in this case weather in the future. One can, from assumptions about the continuation of today's statistics, use probability theory to make wild guesses upon the assumptions about future statistics, but averaging statistics to get an imaginary future statistics, as done in meta-analysis data mining in medicine where it is presumed that real information can be gained form combining experiments all designed in different ways, is a bit irrational and must contradict some valid epistemological rule.
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      • Posted by $ nickursis 7 years, 10 months ago
        Working in a business ruled by statisticians (semiconductor manufacturing) I can say for a fact, you can make a elephant fly with a balloon, given enough data. It can be used to the exclusive ignorance of all other factors, to make an conclusion you need. The thing the dry statisticians miss is the "context" in which the data is obtained, and how you erive your baselines and control limits. You can do it with pure math, and have some neat, orderly data, but when you try to apply that order to the disordered reality, it starts to fail as that context causes changes. This is what people miss with statistics, they are just one part of an overall equation, a tool, not a complete answer.
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  • Posted by $ Stormi 7 years, 10 months ago
    First, the sensors were place at locations to test for global warming, in places they knew would be ot, like in NYC brick enclosed courtyards or at the place jet engines give off heat! Scientist only have figures, not boots on the ground. Second, notice they never mention government programs which are meant to change weather. Why, because it is only meant to control people. I loved how Epstein used the rules of logic to asses the claims.
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  • Posted by Ben_C 7 years, 10 months ago
    Love it. First, define scientist. Second, define devastating consequences. One can make any argument with statistics to prove a point. Cherry picking data to prove a point seems to be the norm. When I hear "scientists" include the effects of solar flares and CO2 release from earthquakes in the ocean I pay attention. Otherwise, it is just a bunch of CO2 laden hot air from people with political and economic agendas.
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    • Posted by fredtyg 7 years, 10 months ago
      If you've ever discussed (or argued) this with Believers, you'll usually find they'll say whatever source you use for your argument is invalid. If you call someone a scientist, they'll say they're not in the right field. If you use someone who was formerly one of their own that didn't tow the Believer line, Judith Curry for instance, they'll just say she's been discredited.

      Works like that just about every time in my experience. I recall not long ago trying to direct a Believer from one of the comment sections of a California newspaper to David Friedman's blog where he explained the falsehood of the 97% figure. That Believer wouldn't even follow the link writing that Friedman was just a denier so he wasn't going to waste his time reading what Friedman had written.
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  • Posted by philosophercat 7 years, 10 months ago
    We live in an interglacial warming period which still has 4 degrees C and 9-10 feet of sea rise to go before the next glaciation begins. If it happens fast as a result of human activity that is good as when the big freeze hits and we are all instructed to burn fossil fuels to keep from freezing the Earth there will still be some. New York can easily survive ocean rising 10 feet but it cannot stop a mile thick ice sheet grinding down from Quebec. Humans expanded from Africa into Europe because of warming otherwise the Neanderthals would still rule.
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    • Posted by $ Olduglycarl 7 years, 10 months ago
      Warming is done...and it wasn't man, nor is it man's fault for the coming cold and wacky weather experienced every 400 years. It's called a Grand Solar Minimum.
      These grand minimums map our perfectly, time and time again and have been responsible for past mass migrations and the collapse of many civilizations.
      Check out the incredible work done by David at adapt 2030 on his youtube channel. (find out what's really happening with weather in other parts of the world through eyes on and local reports).
      Also...see http://suspicious0bservers.org Ben's work is just as incredible. Get your Earth, Solar and Space weather report free every morning.
      PS...he uses NASA and NOAA resources.
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  • Posted by fredtyg 7 years, 10 months ago
    I thought that figure was bogus when I first heard it. David Friedman- son of Milton- debunks the 97% thing on his blog. Pretty much what I wrote earlier on this when I first read of it. The "scientist" in question pretty much put any scientist who believed the Earth was warming to any extent, regardless of how much they thought man was responsible, into the category of Believer, which might even include me!
    http://daviddfriedman.blogspot.com/se...
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    • Posted by fredtyg 7 years, 10 months ago
      I might add, my own feeling always has been: man's effect of the climate, if any, is insignificant when compared to the greater forces of nature. I've yet to see anything to convince me otherwise.
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      • Posted by Dobrien 7 years, 10 months ago
        Hi fredtyg,
        I don't disagree, but I will nit pick a bit. Feeling is not evidence, what you observe and discern is.
        The sheeple take a narrative that is repeated endlessly and FEEL that they are not good citizens
        If they don't go along with the crowd. They don't investigate and discover. Their feeling relieves them of the labor to do their homework. Please don't take offense, but have you read Atlas Shrugged.Ayn Rand says
        "Reason is the faculty that identifies and integrates the material provided by man's senses. ... What you feel tells you nothing about the facts; it merely tells you something about your estimate of the facts."
        Respectfully,
        DOB
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    • Posted by 7 years, 10 months ago
      After reading how they fudged the data to come up with 97%, I am surprised they didn't fudge a bit more and say 100%. You could categorize the publications differently and come up with any percentage that matched your agenda. My eyes always glaze over as soon as I hear "scientists agree".

      I was working on a project once that was based on using chemical wastes in commercial products. A highly respected company contacted me about how we could work together. As it turned out they had a valley full of a synthetic rubber like substance as result of one of their processes and had accumulated there for about 40 years. I was looking for something to upgrade petroleum distillation residue that was actually a poor grade of asphalt. Their business manager and I were not technically proficient in this field but we arranged a big meeting with our "experts". I introduced my asphalt scientist and suggested that he explain the composition and potential for modifying it into useful products with the addition of polybutylene like substances. Charlie peered over his glasses and opened with "Well, there is asphalt and then there is asphalt". Both of us business types were mortified but all the scientist murmured and leaned forward in their chairs. Thus a day was spent in interesting discussion but no one concluded anything and there was no agreement on how to proceed. In later situations, I used the climate Nazi approach and excerpted the opinions that matched my objectives and put the brain with that opinion in charge of making it a reality. This did not always work but it was better than sitting around doing nothing.
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  • Posted by wiggys 7 years, 10 months ago
    maybe the climate discussion will end with the new administration. it is long in the tooth.
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    • Posted by $ nickursis 7 years, 10 months ago
      Nah, there is still way too much money on the table, and many cottage industries as well. They will not give up, just change their tactics. Expect "Trump is killing us all" or "Trumpian policies are ruining the earth" or worse yet, "Trump will end earthworms". They will come, they are just reworking all the posters and books....
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  • Posted by chad 7 years, 10 months ago
    It reminds me of what a teacher once said to me; 'figures don't lie, but only liars figure!' They start off with I am a certified expert and you are not therefore you cannot disagree with me and must behave in the manner I prescribe for you or I will demand the 'right' to use violence to make you obey! Thank you for listening.
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    • Posted by CircuitGuy 7 years, 10 months ago
      "only liars figure" = if someone figures then they're a liar. If we take this literally, it means we cannot know anything. We're left only with stuff we've personally experienced.
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      • Posted by chad 7 years, 10 months ago
        It was meant more as a figure of speech, you correct about assuming that all people who use math are liars. However if that person is trying to control you or remove your liberty and justifying it 'with figures' to prove why you shouldn't be free I would be immediately suspicious of their desires.
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  • -4
    Posted by CircuitGuy 7 years, 10 months ago
    It starts with argument from personal incredulity and argument from final consequences. But he ends up with a conclusion that I suspect is right: It's unclear the costs of not burning fossil fuels are lower than dealing with the global warming burning them causes. It's a hard calculation. We know the costs of global warming will be high, but we don't know how much it will cost to mitigate it or how fast alternative energy would become practical if people burning fossil fuels had to compensate people affected by their activities. Despite how young the author looks in his picture, the tenor of the article is it probably won't be me paying the price for global warming so let's err on the side of someone else paying the price.
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    • Posted by $ Thoritsu 7 years, 10 months ago
      CG, we absolutely do NOT know that CO2 is the culprit. Absolutely not. The ONLY climate models that correlate recently use water vapor as the fundamental greenhouse gas, and various feedback mechanism hypotheses. The contribution from CO2 as a green house gas is an order of magnitude from being enough for the recent warming.
      This does not mean CO2 is not the culprit, but I can find absolutely no technical paper showing the physic-based analysis of what is going on. This is nothing but correlation, and the data to date are completely inadequate to allow the enormous economic consequences of really addressing carbon emissions.
      Like my brother likes to ask "real" religious people: "If god told you to kill your son, like he did Abraham, would you do it?". I ask climate-zealots: "If you really believe CO2 is the problem, the only solution for the next 20 years is nuclear. Why are you not screaming for nuclear power?"...because they don't really believe it...
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      • Posted by $ nickursis 7 years, 10 months ago
        Your point is very valid, if there was such a huge threat, the economic impetus would also follow, as well as the pressure to create. They love to cry and moan, yet no where do you see concrete solutions and proposals, beyond, like the old nuke averse people did "ban the bomb".
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        • Posted by $ Thoritsu 7 years, 10 months ago
          I am all for eliminating dependence on oil. Doing so is overwhelmingly the least expensive investment in our national security against terrorism (AGW aside). However the solution has to be practical and fiscally viable. Solar and wind zealots are just that. Even the engineers working on this equipment know it is not a comprehensive or fiscally responsible approach. There are other approaches, but they are not "cool". Nuclear and vegetable oil-based diesel are ready to go, and corn-ethanol should stop immediately.
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      • -1
        Posted by CircuitGuy 7 years, 10 months ago
        "Why are you not screaming for nuclear power?"...because they don't really believe it..."
        Yes. Technically I do not believe scientific theories, but I accept them. I say accept because new evidence may come along and surprise us.

        We absolutely should be developing nuclear power. We should calculate the cost the rare accidents against the cost of global warming due to burning fossil fuels. Nuclear is a bargain. It will get even safer as it gets more common. The fossil fuels will get expensive to extract (colloquially "run out") eventually, and we'll have to find alternatives anyway. We should do it now, actually we should have started 20 years ago when scientists discovered what a grave threat global warming is.
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        • Posted by $ Thoritsu 7 years, 10 months ago
          I'm all in with you on nuclear, good to hear you agree, but most AGWs zealots don't support the only solution to the problem they believe in.

          "...actually we should have started 20 years ago when scientists discovered what a grave threat global warming is."
          Just keep in mind that you are making an assertion here, that CO2, and moreover human-based CO2, is the culprit. There is NO physics behind this assertion, NONE. There is correlation and a number of empirical models that ALL have water vapor as the primary greenhouse effect. There are various hypotheses about how CO2 begets water vapor, but none are proven.
          I am completely disgusted at how hard I had to dig to figure this out. This simple information is known to all the "Scientists" you refer to, but there is practically no layperson documentation on this.

          Just another note. My brother is the chief engineer for mechanical at NASA. He has told me directly, if a NASA person proposed research that did not specifically support the AGW story, it would be unfunded. This is disgusting anti-scientific censorship, precisely the same as the internet censorship in China and North Korea except in scale. It is completely unacceptable and indicative of why a government should never be trusted.
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          • Posted by $ nickursis 7 years, 10 months ago
            Your story reflect others who have made similar claims, and not just with NASA, it is also true in most colleges, and Federal agencies. The leading scientific climate change "denier" has just resigned from her job in a University, citing the negative and hate filed atmosphere she was in. Truth is not welcomed when it does not match their politics...
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            • Posted by $ Thoritsu 7 years, 10 months ago
              No doubt you are right. My information is hearsay, but I trust its veracity completely. Neither I or my brother are closed minded on this subject. The greenies may be right, but they want to take action and control before it is proven.
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              • Posted by $ nickursis 7 years, 10 months ago
                Therein lies the root of the problem. You are willing to listen and engage, too many people do what the "protestors" are doing, and engage in emotional violence. They see the same behavior in their leaders, look at the Dumbocraps and their petty protests, their "Trump is illegitimate" BS, but if it is THEIR person, they cheer wildly and ram their agenda down your throat, and tell you to just shut up and give (or they take). It is this that leads to no discussion, no debate, no consensus, because none of those give them "what they want". Until a new crop of emotionally mature, responsible leaders arise, this will continue. Like a herd of barbarians burning down the town to "express their rage" and then wanting public aid to build a new one. Exchange of ideas is needed, but not on a one way road.
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                • Posted by $ Thoritsu 7 years, 10 months ago
                  Case and point, I am unaware of any significant vandalism rioting or arrests at a previous inauguration. There can be little doubt the political bias of those culpable. In response to their assertions of inappropriate behavior, Exactly who are the ones misbehaving?

                  I believe the root cause is not the issues at hand. It is the fact that their agenda must be communicated, debated and won before they can have action, rather than the mob mentality approach the media and previous administration employed. It is this same mob mentality yet again prevailing in these childish demonstrations.

                  I think we should watch this carefully. There are powerful communication mechanisms being demonstrated here. I doubt the direct appeal to individual logic is adequate to take them on.
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                  • Posted by $ nickursis 7 years, 10 months ago
                    Indeed communication is a key part, in that you actually have to communicate. 2 way. Not one way, which if you note, is the Dumbocrap approach (and as long as the rest of the world seems bent on defining moral character and name calling, it seems the Dumbocrap idea of communication closely matches the Nazi and Fascist Italy models, which they espouse to be Trump). They demand, scream, and throw a tantrum if they do not get what they want. Their Representatives have proven any talk of country, or their oaths to serve, were just babble to get in the door. The media idea of communication is their standard: send out a broadcast and the drones respond. No thought, no evaluation, just threat and promise. If they do not buy you with "freebies" they threaten you with death, or an approximate. Childish, snowflake, immature behavior. And they would rule over us? I do not think so. I thought Trump made a good address today, blunt, straight, and nationalistic. There is nothing wrong with nationalistic, when it concerns your country, in that it is just the true statement of what all countries are seeking today "more for me, less for you, and you don't count anyways". I would submit the UN as an example: "Pay 50% of our corrupt money source, and then shut up and do what we tell you. We will tell you what is wrong with you, and we will all band together to condemn whoever we want"
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    • Posted by $ WilliamShipley 7 years, 10 months ago
      You keep saying this stuff as if it were a fact. There is a wide range of reactions to increased CO2 from insignificant to inconvenient. The most reasonable projection will be a net positive for the next 60 years by which time we will probably have developed other technologies because they are more cost effective.

      The cost of dealing with increased CO2 is an increase in plant life, the planet is significantly greener in the last few years as a result of CO2. The cost is increased crop productivity as plants grow better. The cost is fewer deaths in the winter from the cold -- unless idiots keep making energy more expensive to keep poor people from using it, i.e. warming their houses.
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      • Posted by philosophercat 7 years, 10 months ago
        Just look at the actual data on CO2 from Mauna Loa. Its online. Ask yourself how can any natural phenomena be so uniform over so long when all the other variables are changing all over the place? Mauna Loa is in the dust wind plume from China so how could its variation since WWII not have shown up in the CO2 data? Is someone cooking the books? I know of no other measure of natural change which does not vary over time including temperature.
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      • -3
        Posted by CircuitGuy 7 years, 10 months ago
        This is literally taking what we all wish were true and just saying it despite its being wrong. We found out all this energy stored in chemical bonds over millions of years, and by sheer luck releasing them in a few hundred years has nothing but benefits for other people.

        At the same time, you start out by talking about a "net positive" if you weigh GDP growth and new technologies generated against the costs because you know this is all fantasy. You know the population surging to billions and releasing energy stored like this will have at least some costs for other people. It's highly inconvenient, though, if those costs are large. People like Naomi Klein will use it to sell socialism. So just start with what you wish were true even if it's not real.
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        • Posted by $ WilliamShipley 7 years, 10 months ago
          What costs? You talk about costs as if there were well known costs. There are a lot of extreme examples in the media, but even the bulk of the people who agree with the AGW hypothesis don't actually believe the extreme scenario.

          You state an opinion as fact. Actually you don't even state an opinion, you just mention a bunch of vague "costs".

          What do YOU believe is going to happen if we don't change our usage. How many degrees warmer do you think it will get this century. What costs will exceed the benefits of increased greening higher crop productivity and warmer winters?
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    • Posted by fredtyg 7 years, 10 months ago
      I'm not so sure the costs of global warming will be so high. Certainly for some parts of the globe it will be, but other areas in the north prone to permafrost and such could become useful for agriculture and other things.
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      • Posted by $ nickursis 7 years, 10 months ago
        Well, there are some negative effects that do need consideration, one of which is that as all the permafrost regions thaw, there is a huge amount of biomass that previously was not decaying, that is starting to decay. That leads to a lot of Methane and organic gases being released, which may cause issues, since they do impact the balance in the atmosphere. The flip side is, at one time, that stuff was not frozen, and it grew there, so the climate must have adapted it into it's balance somehow.
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      • Posted by CircuitGuy 7 years, 10 months ago
        That is true. Parts of Greenland have become arable. That would have happened anyway, but it happened faster thanks to human activities. The problem is costs are far greater: coastal flooding, previously arable land becoming more arid, the contribution to the current max extinction event,

        This is not my area of expertise, but I suspect some kind of geoengineering will be developed to stop the negative effects of climate change and purposely affect the climate for human interests. I don't think we'll be able to stop burning stuff for energy in time to stop the problem.

        The geoengineering is just an idea at this point, so all we can do at this moment is reduce burning stuff.
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