Is Universal Basic Income the Answer to an Automated Future?
Hopefully this link works for non-LinkedIn folks.
In my opinion, we have a wonderful case study in these-here somewhat United States. Since LBJ's "great society" proclamation in the early- to mid-1960's, we have progressively (pun intended) paid people to not work, and the results have been disastrous. We have a society where life has been devalued to the point that abortion is accepted, where the old norm of getting married and having children is distorted at best, and we have people who are no longer ashamed to accept public assistance. To the latter point, people feel OWED and find public assistance a basic expectation. And it's never enough. But I digress...
In my opinion, we have a wonderful case study in these-here somewhat United States. Since LBJ's "great society" proclamation in the early- to mid-1960's, we have progressively (pun intended) paid people to not work, and the results have been disastrous. We have a society where life has been devalued to the point that abortion is accepted, where the old norm of getting married and having children is distorted at best, and we have people who are no longer ashamed to accept public assistance. To the latter point, people feel OWED and find public assistance a basic expectation. And it's never enough. But I digress...
As a psychological corollary to this, the desire for the unearned, contrary to Luke's assertion in the Bible, is the actual root of all evil. Such a desire when dealing with that portion of Nature that is "non-human," quickly leads to frustration failure, and, if continued, death.
If someone is taught to expect the unearned from others however, they quickly develop envy, jealousy, and hatred toward those who actually earn what they obtain.
These "unfortunate" (immoral!) souls then DEMAND that someone remedy the "injustice" they must endure for not being provided with same.
I make no claim with how each of us determine by what standard(s) "earning," that which must first be produced by others entails. We each determine such things in a uniquely personal fashion. And, as long as each person has no control over the values that others have earned, all remains peaceful, and, excepting the behavior of criminals, we each go about our lives accordingly.
When we institute LEGAL criminals however, the shabby culture of "something for nothing" arises and if unchecked, will destroy any and all.
Should another giant leap in productivity be made possible by ever-advancing technology, it will become of even more importance to assure that there are as few as possible among us who believe they have a right to the unearned - however "effortless" the values of existence are subsequently able to be produced.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_urW...
For ancient humans the stone axe made most jobs (hunting and building shelters) twice as efficient, therefore it "destroyed half the jobs". So was the axe a bad thing?
BTW, be ready for people thinking automation is a good thing, nothing to be demonized, but still a reason for socialism.
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Chinese workers are cheaper than american workers, so they get the jobs right now. Automation has replaced many of the remaining american workers, as automation has become cheaper.
Increase the minimum wage to $15 and we will see a drop in unskilled employment when companies (like mine) outsources and automates to reduce costs.
Decreasing regulations and human employment costs will increase employment here. I used to make everything we used in our medical products years ago. Today we buy 2/3 of the items from china. There is no way we would be in business at all if we made or sourced everything in the USA.
Chinese products have improved greatly in the last few years. Iphones are made there for example, and I have yet to receive one that failed. The reputation of chinese stuff hasnt improved as much as their quality has (in general).
American workers have outpriced themselves compared with chinese workers, AND regulatory requirements here in the US make it worse (minimum wage laws, maternity leave paid time off, etc., overtime penalties, )
Automation is increasing return on investment and decreasing return on labor. This will lead to calls for various forms of socialism. Socialism will seem more reasonable to people who would reject it categorically, if it weren't for the changes associated with automation.
Now there ate those who say that automation doesn't remove jobs, it creates new ones just as fast. And certainly that has been true in the past, but automation has typically been used in the realm of repetitive specific work. Weaving, assembly etc. Automation is terrible at things that require human judgement, like cleaning a hotel room.
But the next wave of automation will be general purpose AI. These machines won't be designed to solve specific problems, they will be designed to do what people can do. And they'll be cheaper.
So do we require business to hire people they don't need at higher pay than a robot would require? Do we hire people to do make-work jobs such as digging holes and filling them back up again? Or filling out forms and having other people hired to file them (wait, we already do that). Or do we find some other way for people to obtain the goods the automated factories are producing.
AI systems will need maintenance and operational oversight by humans, for a while anyway. Other jobs will be created in ways we can't firmly predict at this time. It's unlikely that machine intelligence will be as ingenious as humans at thinking outside the box and coming up with new and different ways to solve problems and create new things, at least for a long time.
It's quite likely that only AI systems will be able to cope with the complexity of analyzing problems with other ai systems.
provided it is done before the fetus has brain waves. "The old norm of getting married and hav-
ing children..." I don't necessarily agree with that,either; I think marriage is good, and would want that for myself (though I no longer really
expect it to happen), but I see nothing really
wrong with childless couples. (Though I
would have liked to have one or two, under
proper circumstances). But I share the
writer's disgust with the welfare-statist mental-
ity.
Then we might have to invent new things to do.
Hand made might be the next niche market.
Recall reading how despondent trudging along from day to day citizens of the Soviet Union made enough to drown themselves in vodka.
Mincome minions everywhere, let's sing it~
Volga buzzed men!
O Volga buzzed men!
Ay yi yi--yi!
Volga buzzzzzzzzzz! Hic! Snore!
On one farm he stopped a worker, and asked him about the crops.
The worker said, "Comrade commissar, you would not believe the size of the crops. Carrots the size of your leg!"
The commissar asked, "and how about the potatoes?"
The worker replied, "Comrade commissar, if you stacked all of our potatoes together, they would reach the foot of god!"
The commissar lectured him, "Comrade, this is the Soviet Union, there is no such thing as god."
The worker explained, "That's OK, comrade commissar. There are no potatoes, either."
The only hope for numanity would be for them to reach the Singularity (Ray Kurzweil term) and become cyborgs. Thus ends humanity.
Jules Verne came up with a submarine and a conveyance to the moon first
Haven't seen you Squeaks attacked for a while.
Maybe a Stinks did it this time.
Ha1 Ha! Me dino make funny.
I really don't know the answer to this but something will have to be done soon or else other countries will start abandoning rational thought and start voting in demi gods and saviors and such. That never goes well.