How polls can be rigged
Hillary's "lead" may not be all that it appears. And there may be two other factors causing polls to underestimate Trump's support. Some voters may support Trump but hesitate to say so due to potential backlash from their peer groups. (Survey responses are supposed to be anonymous, but those participating in a telephone survey often cannot be sure that they are.) There may also be Trump voters who refuse to even participate in surveys for the same reason.
Voters may surprise the pollsters on election day.
Voters may surprise the pollsters on election day.
Otherwise you're right. Here in Florida, we got the same Hillary commercial about every half hour.
I never say "Hello" to anything that looks political. "Anonymous" or "Name Unknown?" Forget it!
There are other shenanigans, such as weighted responses that favor one position or another, or questions skewed to build a response that favors a particular outcome.
Bottom line: keep a degree of skepticism when viewing any poll, for as Gladstone said, "There are lies, there are damned lies, and then there are statistics."
Personally, I don't think there should be polls. They're a lot like college football rankings - which get decided pretty much in the pre-season rather than on the field.
Yes. I usually don't stop to think of how much they influence me. I figured Johnson was pissing in the wind until I saw a poll showing 10%. At that point I started thinking he had a shot if many things broke in his favor. That doesn't appear to be happening. If the polls told me either a) Johnson had a chance and/or b) Trump had no chance, I would certainly vote for Johnson. I'm starting to chicken out. You and freedomfall rightly point out how odd it is to be so affected by public opinion.
I've had the same thought all along. I'm not asserting it's true, but it's plausible.
I also think Trump and Sanders appear because gov't spending increased around WWII and never went down to pre-war levels. US got a benefit from winning WWII w/o being bombed on the mainland. Those benefits have been wearing off as WWII recedes father into history. At the same time the gov't spending gives the average citizen the idea that the gov't is responsible for their successes/failures: their healthcare, whether they lose their job, paying for college.
It's become normal to figure it must be someone else's fault if you're struggling. The post WW-II time when you could just get an education, get a decent job, and feel confident that your income/wealth will rise with the tide is an anomaly. People want it back. Politicians like Sanders and Trump appear and promise to do what the people want, offering scapegoats and promises that gov't action can fix people's struggles.