Western Banks Scramble As China's "Rehypothecation Evaporation" Goes Global | Zero Hedge

Posted by straightlinelogic 10 years, 3 months ago to Economics
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This is a long article, but well worth it for anyone who wants to understand what's going on in the world's largest economy, and how it may affect the rest of the world. Essentially, an arbitrage has been set up to take advantage of the discrepancy in US and Chinese interest rates (borrow in dollars, lend in yuan, hedge the currency exposure) and various commodities collateralize the yuan loans. Sooner or later these types of arbitrages fall apart as they become more popular. The extra kicker in this blow up will be that many of the commodities pledged as collateral have either been pledged as collateral multiple times or have been rehypothecated. (I pledge my copper to you for your money, you then pledge that same copper to someone else as collateral for their money. If this sounds absurd, it is, but it goes on, and not just in commodities. It is, in fact, the way most credit markets work. Treasury debt, mortgage-backed securities, corporate debt, and so on are all rehypothecated in the repo market. That's how the failure of one "systematically important" institution (like Lehman Brothers) can bring down the entire global financial system, as multiple claimants desperately try to recover the same collateral.)
Keep in mind that the Chinese have created far more funny money liquidity since 2008 than either the US, Japan, or Europe. I would say that the odds of the next financial collapse starting in China are high. If you really want to get up to speed on it, this article, and the articles linked within it, are great places to start.
SOURCE URL: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-07/western-banks-scramble-chinas-rehypothecation-evaporation-goes-global


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  • Posted by $ Mimi 10 years, 3 months ago
    The article mentioned Citigroup by name. Could this be why Soros dumped his Citigroup stocks a couple months ago? (he also dumped Bank of America and um.I don’t recall the third.)
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    • Posted by 10 years, 3 months ago
      I can't speculate on why Soros dumped banks. What I do know is that the Too Big To Fail banks are all bigger than they were in 2007, the world as a whole is far more leveraged than it was in 2007, and nobody, including people inside the banks, can make a reasonable estimate as to potential losses if that leverage unwinds. On that latter point, I said the exact same thing in 2007 and said it was reason enough not to invest in the big banks. Europe's banks are even more opaque, and undoubtedly in worse shape, since so many of them have massive exposure to their own governments' debt.
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  • Posted by robertmbeard 10 years, 3 months ago
    This is a very good article with detailed analysis of the commodity rehypothecation risk in China. Because of their significantly less transparent banking system and accounting standards, many expect the level of credit over-leveraging in China is larger (as % of GDP) than most other countries. If true, and if anything like this triggers a period of much needed de-leveraging, it could make our de-leveraging in real estate investments look somewhat tame by comparison.
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  • Posted by Herb7734 10 years, 3 months ago
    One more peril to add to the never-ending list. Which one of the straws out there is going to be the one to break the world's back? Atlas won't need to shrug, he'll be too busy trying to glue the pieces back together. It will take a long, long time.
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  • Posted by wiggys 10 years, 3 months ago
    according to the wall street journal on June 6, 2014 US payrolls hit an all time high in May 2014. apparently one needs to be wearing waders and carry a shovel when reading the wall street journal these days.
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    • Posted by 10 years, 3 months ago
      Especially the editorial page, which has never met an intelligence program or foreign war it didn't like. To be expected now that they are part of Murdoch's propaganda machine.
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      • Posted by wiggys 10 years, 3 months ago
        I for one and I am sure I am not alone have gotten very tired of these long in the tooth people who cower to the white house occupant perpetually. I am reading for the second time "return of the primitive" and today I started AR's Ford Hall Forum lecture delivered on April 10, 1977 "Global Balkanization". I never cease to be amazed at her ability to not only comprehend what is going on but also to explain it so somebody like me can also comprehend what is going on.
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  • Posted by wiggys 10 years, 3 months ago
    For the past 5 or 6 years I have been receiving e mails from Chinese companies wanting to sell me their services or products. The rate of these emails has increased to several each day to include weekends. now some even try to skpye me. This tells me that I am far from the only company receiving these e mails. Their production of product has been diminishing for these many years or possibly longer. That said with out product being made to generate wealth it makes no difference what the banks do with their funds it doesn't get any bigger, it stays the same. World wide all of the economies of each and every country is stagnating because that is what is happening in the usa. Of course you can believe what comes out in the media about the economy if you want, but as far as I am concerned the numbers are figments of someone's imagination.
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