this is a duplicate post. However, on Earth Day, I wanted to remind everybody that it should be "Man Day" is it a coincidence Earth Day is Lenin's birthday?
The word "sustainability" is misused all the time to add political prestige to to the wrong things. But isn't it just as incorrect to say it should mean lasting beyond the end of the universe when everything will disappear as a sea of entropy? The term (sensibly used) refers to processes within the possible timescales of human civilization.
Entropy is not some kind of stuff that exists. It is a measurement of disorder or information neither of which have any substance as matter or radiation.
When I studied physics in the early 1960s, thermodynamic systems were described as of three types: open, closed, and isolated. In the open system both matter and radiation can enter and the entropy can remain the same, decrease, or increase. In the closed system, radiation can enter the system and entropy can remain the same, decrease, or increase. In an an isolated system, no matter or radiation can enter the system and entropy will stay the same or increase. The Earth is an open system with both matter and radiation entering and can have some systems where entropy can decrease, such as in living things. Does the entropy of the Universe continue to increase so that it will end in a cold cold whimper?
That is not what the advocates of sustainability mean and therefore not the standard by which they judge things. As a result, if that is your position then you are really talking past the issue rather than dealing with it
Reading Wikipedia the first Earth day was started by John McConnell on the spring equinox on March 21st 1969, one year later a politician (US Senator Wisconsin-D) Gaylord Nelson 'started' Earth Day on April 22nd 1970. The senator was later awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom by Bill Clinton in 1995 for his work on the environment. So.....(sarcasm alert) while the article pointed out the realities of entropy and 'Peak Resource' theory, I think 'Peak Hot Air' is years away. Now if it was useful for something . . . .
Hot Air is a renewable resource and has a stead two peak cycle one medium one high both are two years apart building and peaking around October and November every other year. This phenomena is found only in central North America.
"Man Day?" You sexist. This should be "Creature Day" so as not to offend any animal. As a representative of the Save the Ants Crusade Against Insecticide I fully intend to take this up with the Almighty Lord of the Flies.
Is it a coincidence that this article first appeared on my birthday? YES! But, seriously folks, the issue of sustainability is as pertinent as the puzzle that occupied Catholics for a hundred years, i:e: "How many angels can dance on t6he head of a pin." Sustainability in it's useable context works on practical situations such as: Will my new car sustain its ability to run well for twenty years or will its cost of maintenance out-weigh its practicability before that time?
I got a saab 900 and ran it for 22 years -- average total cost per month, including fuel (37 mile round-trip commute) and oil and service and insurance::: 200 dollars per month. . whatta bargain! -- j .
Great answer! It took them around 100 years. And then, I think they gave up. Of course in Washington, the question might be how many pin heads can dance like an angel?
There are no angels in Washington. Of those that are there they can all tap dance which is why they can't wear glass slippers and they are all pin heads. That took me less than 100 seconds.
According to people who seem to study these things, there are (were?) evil angels. Lucifer was one. Lots of his followers in DC. So, here's to tap dancing pin heads, may they rot in hell.
Detroit means "The Straits. Detriot means The Riot? Clever, since while I lived there I experienced two major ones and several little ones. In '67, me and my family were coming home from a mini vacation in Chicago. We heard there was rioting, but there was nothing like the feeling you get when you see tanks rumbling down the street near your home.
The question about "is it a coincidence Earth Day is Lenin's birthday?" caused old dino's creaky if not creepy extinct yet reanimated mind to recall seeing on my previous PC a certain close-up photo taken at the White House during King Barry's first Christmas there. It was a hanging ornament with Chairman Mao's smiling face ion it.; Would such a triggered memory be coincidental too?
Sustainability is a farce, is a static world and we will perish because of it. We must venture into outer space if the human race is to survive. individualism to discovery of other realms. We can include the oceans in this endeavor too. But that is only temporary fix. In our own planetary systems there planets and moons to terraform. If the technologial countries or entrapenuers could build a joint venture to push the envelope of technology so in a few short years we could be living on the moon and Mars.
a caller Friday on Rush's radio show with Buck Sexton of the blaze ... commented that we should seek to diminish our risks on this planet which routinely tries to kill us with storms and earthquakes and volcanoes. . it blew Buck's mind! -- j .
when I encounter them, I highlight them and do a control-c copy, and then put them in a microsoft word file which I call "new words." . then, I can copy them back like I did above. -- j
"How can you have continual growth in a finite world?" People find new ways to meet people's wants and needs. Human ingenuity allows the amount of value to grow indefinitely without the the world growing.
The world isn't finite. The sum of combined parts is almost always greater than the sum of the individual parts. Apple Pie is an example using bio-chemistry. The increase may be in quantity, quality, value or any combination of the three.
Cyclic. It may run out in one location but not in all and in most locations minerals, for example, are still present but perhaps not economically worth while mining. The N.California and S. Oregon gold fields still retain over half the gold as the recovery costs are too high.
The zero sum gain viewpoint is shot in the foot every time by one word...synergy. It's only found in economic models featuring heavily controlled central planning. An example of that is the 1973 gas shortage crisis and the natural substance induced dreams of Benita Pelosillyni.
I lived in NJ during the '73 gas crunch. I had a car that got about 12 mpg and I lived about 22 miles from work, so just finding enough gas to keep commuting was a challenge. Small-dollar pumping limits also hurt.
Then someone told me that if I drove about a gallon or two to the West, crossed from NJ into PA, stations there had plenty of gas.
I tried it once... fill-up with no questions asked, and the attendant asked if I needed any fluid checks under the hood. I smiled, thanked him, said no, thanks, and motored back to NJ. The full tank with less worry was worth the cost of the voyage there and back.
THEN a rumor came out that there were flotillas of tankers moored off the NJ coast, just over the horizon, waiting for the gas prices to increase enough... Congressmonkeys were written to. Nothing changed.
And then, one day, someone told me that, while PA had voted for the then-current President, NJ had gone the other way.
I pointed that out via snail-mail to my congressmonkey, President and local papers.
Y'know what? Within a matter of weeks after that, NJ SUDDENLY was allocated a LOT more crude to refine and the Gas Lines evaporated almost immediately after that.
California had every other day fill ups depending on the last number of your license plate. I was stationed there at the time. Whole thing was just an early test of the same system used in 2008. Use or manufacture a 'crisis' Use it to control a needed part of life. Fuel, Money, Medicine whatever. Then pay off the debts by inflation, devaluation and debt repudiation.
Considering the NJ sea coast during the time of the 73 'gotcha' the lights from the anchored ships would be clearly visible but having worked on tankers a. where would they go and be what were the weather conditions a the time of the fuel shortage? Maybe the Great White Sharks were to blame?
Hey, Michael... it was the equivalent of an internet meme back then.... And allegedly anchored (sea-anchored) far enough 'offshore' to be over the horizon, so no running lights would be visible from any shore... There's a meme-answer for any such argument. But for the gas shortage in NJ to end just weeks after I wrote my letter to my congressmonkey about the Presidential Vote difference was, well, at least a Wonderful Coincidence. If Coincidences really exist.
Oh, and NJ had odd-even days as part of the program, too. I had a personalized plate, ALAN F, and was put in one of the odd/even categories as a result. It took them a while to figure that out, too.. :)
But they still limited the amount each of those days? That was cold. Might of been dock space. Go up the Delaware one refinery on the Delaware side then not much. Nothing on the Atlantic side so then north Jersey side and one up by Brighton Beach somewhere. Fear Pear inside the hook doesn't count that's military deliveries.... Really isn't a lot of off load especially for crude. Mostly all offload for finished products gas, diesel, JP for aviation and some fuel oil in the cold months. Not eve sure about LPG
The limitation on growth is not the physical world it is man's imagination - his ability to invent new things. Oil was just an unwanted contaminant on land until human intelligence made if valuable. Fast food restaurants use to have to pay people to cart their waste oil away, now they have to lock up their waste oil because someone figured out how to use it as diesel fuel. The stories go on and on.
my point being, let's come up with a "cheaper" alternative. It will still be taxed, and the govt will just think they can raise the level of the tax rate because the alternative is so inexpensive! you won't win, you know :)
All of the creatures have new generations being born, growing, and dying. The predation of species by parasites(smaller predators) and carnivores(larger predators) stopping the hypothetical growth potential(e.g...the flawed story of microbes growing in a Petri dish). AND ignoring the food availability in any single location.
If you are referring to the ECONOMIC realm, people find more effective ways of obtaining the items that they desire and these new tools replace older ones.
"The supposed solution for our Peak Oil problem is to develop renewable energy resources. " Developing alternative energy sources is the only solution for humankind to carry on living a modern lifestyle.
The universe won't last forever, so technically nothing is truly sustainable. If an energy resource lasts for as long as anatomically modern humans have existed, however, I'll call that sustainable.
Some simple math: 70% of the current energy in the world today is provided by some form of carbon fuel; 20% is provided by nuclear sources; 7% is provided by hydroelectric installations; 3% is solar, wind, or geothermal. Deliberate restriction of the use of fossil fuels impedes the transition to wind, solar, and geothermal sources, because we need to use our most plentiful energy source to create, transport, and install the renewables.
Hopefully, efficiency improvements in generation and storage will eventually overcome these problems, but current technology just isn't ready to replace fossil fuel power.
It's a matter of resource allocation: if all of the heavy equipment used to mine materials, construct the generators, ship the parts, and assemble the components of renewable energy sources are powered by fossil fuels, and international agreements restrict the use of those fuels, the schedule of implementing renewable resources will be impacted.
If you don't have enough "clean" energy sources to rapidly produce more clean equipment, you have no choice but to use the "dirty" energy sources to produce their replacements until the balance shifts toward more available renewable resources.
There is no magic pixie dust to make these resources appear effortlessly, but proponents don't seem to be willing to comprehend that there are practical difficulties that have nothing to do with attitudes. The resource problem remains even if you disregard the economics issue of renewable energy being significantly more costly.
": if all of the heavy equipment used to mine materials, construct the generators, ship the parts, and assemble the components of renewable energy sources are powered by fossil fuels, and international agreements restrict the use of those fuels, the schedule of implementing renewable resources will be impacted" I guess we could study then by looking at whether alternatives are adopted more when oil prices are low or high. If you're right and higher prices paradoxically prevent development of alternatives, we will be in trouble as the supply curve for oil shifts as it gets harder to extract. Ordinarily when one things gets harder to get, the market encourages suppliers to introduce alternatives. You're saying it's the opposite in the case of energy.
Even at $100 a barrel, oil was less expensive than renewable sourced energy. Estimates are that the price would have to rise to $240 a barrel before renewable energy (with the technology available today) would be competitive without subsidies.
The problem with the model that says the simple solution is to make fossil fuels ridiculously high in order to make the demand for renewables to increase is that the resulting rise in the cost of living would crash the economy. There's no demand when life is so expensive you can barely survive.
No pixie dust, no free lunch, no path to make renewable competitive until the technology improves significantly. Either live with what you've got and shift the resources to improving the technology, or focus on improving the efficiency of energy use in general so that high energy prices have less impact on the economy. Since the latter would require massive changes throughout society, the better game is to invest in improving the performance of renewables until they can really compete.
"Estimates are that the price would have to rise to $240 a barrel before renewable energy (with the technology available today) would be competitive without subsidies." You have been talking about renewable energy, and I have been talking about alternative energy. I consider nuclear to be alternative energy, actually the best alternative. I also think there may be ways to capture the carbon (mostly CO[2]) after burning coal. I don't think coal will be getting harder to extract for many generations, so that's a possible alternative. I suspect oil will get harder to extract in my lifetime, but will stay at similar price range because of alternatives. I reject the claims (nothing you've said) that some people make that the oil will go on forever or its running out will lead to a disaster.
There are ways to deal with the CO2, but coal extraction will get harder. The two leading coal companies in the US have both filed for bankruptcy this year.
Based on this, do you predict an economic upheaval when it becomes more expensive to extract oil? Is cheap oil the only present way to support billions of us at a modern lifestyle?
Fossil fuel supplies (which have been predicted to run out more times than I care to think) are a reliable energy source for at least fifty years at the current rate of consumption. That gives us plenty of time to develop other energy sources with comparable cost.
As you note, nuclear energy is a credible, reliable, safe energy source that is cheaper to implement than solar, wind, or geothermal energy at this time. Thorium reactors (though none have yet been put in service) promise an almost unlimited supply of future nuclear energy, since they breed new fuel.
I anticipate the wind power community will shift from the big horizontal axis turbines they now use to large farms of vertical axis turbines, even though the verticals are less efficient on a unit basis. I can place more verticals in a given space, they can handle a wider range of wind speeds for increased availability, and the generators are a t ground level, reducing maintenance cost and improving safety.
Solar technology is improving at a mind-numbing pace, primarily with a change to less expensive materials. That will be a game-breaker, but it's not here yet.
As the organizer of a petroleum seminar series in the 1990s, I can tell you that we have at least 200 years of fossil fuels at current consumption levels.
Thank you, Thank you, Thank you,! Spot on, Dr! For a few years I've been puzzled as to why the big fan wind turbines all seemed to put the generators in what was the worst-possible location for installation, maintenance and upgrade-ability! I actually pictured putting the "wind turbine" in the base with a vertical shaft and putting a large 'chimney' above it, ending with a horizontal-axis "funnel" which would use pressure differentials from 'front to back' to power the turbines. Vertical blade wind farms sound like a better idea, and the packing density is one great justification! More power to the people working towards that, so to speak!
All that summaries the situation clearly. Coal will last longer than 50 years, but it has its problems. I'm confident viable alternatives will be found.
I had not seen the post in question before, but decided it was more appropriate to comment on it directly, rather than in this venue. It is an example of slipshod thinking.
But isn't it just as incorrect to say it should mean lasting beyond the end of the universe when everything will disappear as a sea of entropy? The term (sensibly used) refers to processes within the possible timescales of human civilization.
Answer: Objectivism. Or a recycling Big Bang. Note that theory has yet to be tested.
You didn't notice?! /jk
:)
Trouble is...hot air left alone...cools off!
:)
Their STANDARD is an environment WITHOUT humans so any ideas they suggest need to be checked for CONTRADICTIONS.
YES!
But, seriously folks, the issue of sustainability is as pertinent as the puzzle that occupied Catholics for a hundred years, i:e: "How many angels can dance on t6he head of a pin." Sustainability in it's useable context works on practical situations such as: Will my new car sustain its ability to run well for twenty years or will its cost of maintenance out-weigh its practicability before that time?
total cost per month, including fuel (37 mile round-trip
commute) and oil and service and insurance::: 200
dollars per month. . whatta bargain! -- j
.
"As many as will fit."
And the Catholics couldn't figure that out over all those years? That's sad.
And, you're welcome, and Happy Birthday!
It took them around 100 years. And then, I think they gave up.
Of course in Washington, the question might be how many pin heads can dance like an angel?
So, here's to tap dancing pin heads, may they rot in hell.
Clever, since while I lived there I experienced two major ones and several little ones. In '67, me and my family were coming home from a mini vacation in Chicago. We heard there was rioting, but there was nothing like the feeling you get when you see tanks rumbling down the street near your home.
It was a hanging ornament with Chairman Mao's smiling face ion it.;
Would such a triggered memory be coincidental too?
.
Now linked from my page at http://www.plusaf.com/homepagepix/__p...
Thank you!
of the blaze ... commented that we should seek to diminish
our risks on this planet which routinely tries to kill us
with storms and earthquakes and volcanoes. . it blew
Buck's mind! -- j
.
(really need emoji's here!)
.
:)
control-c copy, and then put them in a microsoft word
file which I call "new words." . then, I can copy them
back like I did above. -- j
π°β€π©ββΉβΌπ !
.
does them beautifully. . nonMoochingArtist or some
such name ... great fun! -- j
.
People find new ways to meet people's wants and needs. Human ingenuity allows the amount of value to grow indefinitely without the the world growing.
The zero sum gain viewpoint is shot in the foot every time by one word...synergy. It's only found in economic models featuring heavily controlled central planning. An example of that is the 1973 gas shortage crisis and the natural substance induced dreams of Benita Pelosillyni.
I lived in NJ during the '73 gas crunch. I had a car that got about 12 mpg and I lived about 22 miles from work, so just finding enough gas to keep commuting was a challenge. Small-dollar pumping limits also hurt.
Then someone told me that if I drove about a gallon or two to the West, crossed from NJ into PA, stations there had plenty of gas.
I tried it once... fill-up with no questions asked, and the attendant asked if I needed any fluid checks under the hood. I smiled, thanked him, said no, thanks, and motored back to NJ.
The full tank with less worry was worth the cost of the voyage there and back.
THEN a rumor came out that there were flotillas of tankers moored off the NJ coast, just over the horizon, waiting for the gas prices to increase enough... Congressmonkeys were written to.
Nothing changed.
And then, one day, someone told me that, while PA had voted for the then-current President, NJ had gone the other way.
I pointed that out via snail-mail to my congressmonkey, President and local papers.
Y'know what? Within a matter of weeks after that, NJ SUDDENLY was allocated a LOT more crude to refine and the Gas Lines evaporated almost immediately after that.
Go figure.
Cheers!
Considering the NJ sea coast during the time of the 73 'gotcha' the lights from the anchored ships would be clearly visible but having worked on tankers a. where would they go and be what were the weather conditions a the time of the fuel shortage? Maybe the Great White Sharks were to blame?
And allegedly anchored (sea-anchored) far enough 'offshore' to be over the horizon, so no running lights would be visible from any shore...
There's a meme-answer for any such argument.
But for the gas shortage in NJ to end just weeks after I wrote my letter to my congressmonkey about the Presidential Vote difference was, well, at least a Wonderful Coincidence.
If Coincidences really exist.
Oh, and NJ had odd-even days as part of the program, too. I had a personalized plate, ALAN F, and was put in one of the odd/even categories as a result. It took them a while to figure that out, too.. :)
:D
All of the creatures have new generations being born, growing, and dying. The predation of species by parasites(smaller predators) and carnivores(larger predators) stopping the hypothetical growth potential(e.g...the flawed story of microbes growing in a Petri dish). AND ignoring the food availability in any single location.
If you are referring to the ECONOMIC realm, people find more effective ways of obtaining the items that they desire and these new tools replace older ones.
Developing alternative energy sources is the only solution for humankind to carry on living a modern lifestyle.
The universe won't last forever, so technically nothing is truly sustainable. If an energy resource lasts for as long as anatomically modern humans have existed, however, I'll call that sustainable.
If you don't have enough "clean" energy sources to rapidly produce more clean equipment, you have no choice but to use the "dirty" energy sources to produce their replacements until the balance shifts toward more available renewable resources.
There is no magic pixie dust to make these resources appear effortlessly, but proponents don't seem to be willing to comprehend that there are practical difficulties that have nothing to do with attitudes. The resource problem remains even if you disregard the economics issue of renewable energy being significantly more costly.
I guess we could study then by looking at whether alternatives are adopted more when oil prices are low or high. If you're right and higher prices paradoxically prevent development of alternatives, we will be in trouble as the supply curve for oil shifts as it gets harder to extract. Ordinarily when one things gets harder to get, the market encourages suppliers to introduce alternatives. You're saying it's the opposite in the case of energy.
The problem with the model that says the simple solution is to make fossil fuels ridiculously high in order to make the demand for renewables to increase is that the resulting rise in the cost of living would crash the economy. There's no demand when life is so expensive you can barely survive.
No pixie dust, no free lunch, no path to make renewable competitive until the technology improves significantly. Either live with what you've got and shift the resources to improving the technology, or focus on improving the efficiency of energy use in general so that high energy prices have less impact on the economy. Since the latter would require massive changes throughout society, the better game is to invest in improving the performance of renewables until they can really compete.
You have been talking about renewable energy, and I have been talking about alternative energy. I consider nuclear to be alternative energy, actually the best alternative. I also think there may be ways to capture the carbon (mostly CO[2]) after burning coal. I don't think coal will be getting harder to extract for many generations, so that's a possible alternative. I suspect oil will get harder to extract in my lifetime, but will stay at similar price range because of alternatives. I reject the claims (nothing you've said) that some people make that the oil will go on forever or its running out will lead to a disaster.
As you note, nuclear energy is a credible, reliable, safe energy source that is cheaper to implement than solar, wind, or geothermal energy at this time. Thorium reactors (though none have yet been put in service) promise an almost unlimited supply of future nuclear energy, since they breed new fuel.
I anticipate the wind power community will shift from the big horizontal axis turbines they now use to large farms of vertical axis turbines, even though the verticals are less efficient on a unit basis. I can place more verticals in a given space, they can handle a wider range of wind speeds for increased availability, and the generators are a t ground level, reducing maintenance cost and improving safety.
Solar technology is improving at a mind-numbing pace, primarily with a change to less expensive materials. That will be a game-breaker, but it's not here yet.
Spot on, Dr!
For a few years I've been puzzled as to why the big fan wind turbines all seemed to put the generators in what was the worst-possible location for installation, maintenance and upgrade-ability!
I actually pictured putting the "wind turbine" in the base with a vertical shaft and putting a large 'chimney' above it, ending with a horizontal-axis "funnel" which would use pressure differentials from 'front to back' to power the turbines.
Vertical blade wind farms sound like a better idea, and the packing density is one great justification!
More power to the people working towards that, so to speak!