An Exponential Decay Function, by Robert Gore
The debt overhang—not just stated, on-the-books debt, but governments’ unfunded pension and medical promises—is the salient feature of the global economy; everything else pales in significance. Governments and central banks are engaging in absurd stratagems: monetizing government fiat debt with central bank fiat debt, negative interest rates, and perhaps helicopter money drops, to force already over-indebted individuals and businesses to spend more and take on additional debt. These stratagems are distractions, totems on which financial markets can affix whatever optimism they can still muster.
This is an excerpt. For the full article, please click the above link.
This is an excerpt. For the full article, please click the above link.
Txs Robert
It is hard to get others to pay much attention--I think its the resistance to the use of reason over emotion and mental comfort. Leaves one with not many to be able to discuss such topics. One of the reasons I enjoy your writing so much.
I often think that I'm the odd-ball in the crowd--just wired differently than others. Odd that it gives me a sense of freedom, even excitement that I don't see in others.
That would probably bring gold to 10K an ounce.
It's worth a listen, they may do it, they may not but it does say something about how our fed is thinking. The article states that they would sell bonds in return for gold...interesting, worthless paper for something of intrinsic value...makes one want to go Hummmmmm.
in your opinion...can the massive debt be reversed...and if not...how does this turn out???
but end result will be a much lower standard of living for all who do not plan....
i will just try to stay under the radar...trying to get my girlfriend to find an "isolated" cabin somewhere...
get off Social Security. I never wanted to be on it.
What is your explanation for why we are not seeing inflation?
Part of it seems to be lying about the actual inflation to me. However, that does not seem to be the complete explanation.
In the case of Japan, the central bank did not start monetizing the national debt until recently (??) So I think that explains why Japan did not experience significant inflation.
Is the inflation being created by the Fed buying up government (and other) bonds and retiring them, being overwhelmed by bad loans that have not officially been written off.
What are you thoughts?
So most private economic entities are trying to either reduce their debt or at least not incur more of it. The only entities still aggressively increasing debt are central banks and governments, who are insensitive to economic considerations. For their debt to have expansionary economic effects, private entites must be willing to expand their debt. The Fed buying up government bonds (actually exchanging its fiat debt for the government's fiat debt) can only increase nominal economic activity and prices if the bank reserves it creates serve as a basis for loan expansion in the real economy. That is not happening now, or is only happening at an anemic rates depending on the country, which is a primary reason economic activity is weak and there has not been the oft predicted resurgence of inflation. When total debt actually begins to contract, which has either started or will soon, it will be deflationary. Commodities prices since mid-2014 are the leading edge, just as house prices were last time. In both cases deflation began in one of the economies most leveraged, or indebted, sectors. That is typical of debt deflations.
For more, see the Debtonomics Archive on SLL.