Galt's Gulch

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  • Posted by mminnick 10 years, 8 months ago
    Putting money into the stark market is gambling. the events that cause the stock market to rise or fall are out of the control of the individual investor and seem to be very much like a pseudo-random number generator with an unknown periodicity. By the shape of the DJIA curve it would appear to be about 70 years between collapses of the market if curve shapes maean anything (they don't).
    IMHO you have to be drunk to play the market and really very lucky to win at it. and you really don't win all that much since the government (at all levels) takes it's share off the top and you get what is left.
    So, since you need to be drunk to play, claiming your losses are due to being drunk most likely won't work. But hey, give it a try, it might work.
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    • Posted by plusaf 10 years, 8 months ago
      Read books by Ken Fisher and MAYBE discover that many of your assumptions are dead wrong.

      The market is not a gambling even unless you do NO research into what you're putting your money into. Fisher points out that the market is not a random number generator at all, but has already discounted and built into its current valuation all information available... even before 'we' see it in the mass media.

      Ken's company manages my IRA and I've been with them since June of '04.. including the recent 'market crash.'

      After withdrawing over $400k from my IRA and my wife's IRA since then... AND paying over $140k in fees, our combined IRAs have plummeted, ON AVERAGE, as of now, approximately 0.25% PER YEAR.

      At that rate, we'll deplete our IRA savings in... wait for it.... 392 years.

      I also graphed the DJIA some years back, but on semilog paper, not the usual linear graph paper that innumerate people use... I discovered that it DOES have a 'cycle,' but not the kind anyone expects.

      Graph it right and you'll see that the DOW goes up for about twenty years and then bounces around FLAT for another twenty years, then resumes its upward slope.

      Or don't do that and continue believing what the mainscream media has been shoveling at you all your life.
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  • Posted by Zenphamy 10 years, 8 months ago
    Yeah, you can. It's call 'stock-loss' suits. The suits claim it's not the buyers responsibility to research to stock price, but rather they should be able to rely on those published by someone else.
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  • Posted by Herb7734 10 years, 8 months ago
    Here's a suggestion: Next time you go to Vegas, don't drink, take in the shows don't gamble, bring the family (if you have one) you moron!
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    • Posted by Robbie53024 10 years, 8 months ago
      I assume that wasn't aimed at me. ;-)

      As one who works with statistics, I find little entertaining in gambling. I know the odds are stacked against me. The only real gambling that I do is when PowerBall gets up to some ungodly amt. Then it's worth the investment to take the chance.
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      • Posted by plusaf 10 years, 8 months ago
        Hey, Robbie... here's an interesting statistic for everyone to chew on...

        If you don't buy a lotto ticket, your chances of winning are ZERO. Rocket surgery, right?

        If you BUY ONE ticket, you've just raised your probability of winning to maybe one in several hundred million.... BUT that's INFINITELY HIGHER odds of winning than if you didn't buy any tickets at all.

        However, buying TWO tickets only raises your chances of winning to TWO chances out of that same hundreds of millions...

        So you've improved your odds of winning tremendously just by buying one ticket, but negligibly for the next tickets.

        THAT is 'math and statistics' for ya.... :)
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