Crisis Progress Report (12): Zero Will be King, by Robert Gore

Posted by straightlinelogic 9 years, 3 months ago to Economics
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At this point, assuming your selling is done and you sit mostly in cash, with perhaps a little on the side for speculative shorts, the best investment advice is to be patient. It will probably take appreciably more opinion-making market downside before prominent permabulls switch to the bearish camp, the mainstream media proclaims a long running bear market, and the news is filled with dire headlines. The gloom will get so thick and one-sided that when nobody expects it, a rally will ignite. It won’t be a one-day or one-week wonder, either, it will span a month or two and will recoup a substantial percentage of the losses. The last crisis is instructive. The S&P index topped in October of 2007 and dropped for five months until a rally began, in March of 2008, that retraced half the drop. Such rallies are almost universally disbelieved when they start and almost universally embraced as the beginning of a new bull market when they end. Bullish belief had been restored in May of 2008 when that rally ended. The rest of the year was tears.

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SOURCE URL: http://straightlinelogic.com/2015/10/01/crisis-progress-report-12-zero-will-be-king-by-robert-gore/


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  • Posted by CircuitGuy 9 years, 3 months ago
    I completely agree that journalists write "Markets did X amid concerns about Y," with no evidence of causality. Short-term market fluctuations are like the Gaussian white noise that pervades all electronics due electrons bouncing around randomly. They cannot write that every day, so it has to be in has to be in response to some report or some bellwether's performance.

    When you start writing about overshoot, though, I think some of this is just lower-frequency Gaussian noise, and when we go back and look at charts later our mind tries to impose order on a random process. I agree if you know other market participants are doing this technical analysis, it makes sense to take technicals into consideration.

    At the end you say the real fundamental trend is a lowering of asset valuation due to monetary policy. I know there's something to this, but I still don't get it. It seems to me that monetary policy could causing inflation or deflation, but I would expect the typical P/E ratio for a stock, rental property, or whatever to be unaffected.
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    • Posted by 9 years, 3 months ago
      An unexpectedly deflation, the byproduct of a severe market crash, acts as margin call and people must sell assets, including stocks. The monetary policy of the last few decades guarantees unexpected deflations. Another has begun.
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      • Posted by CircuitGuy 9 years, 3 months ago
        So here's my understanding:
        Step 1: Loose monetary policy leads people to use more leverage seeking returns.
        Step 2: The leverage leads to high P/E ratios in real estate and business.
        Step 3: Some little blip causes people to question future earnings growth. This suggests a slightly lower P/E. would be appropriate. The trouble is with all that leverage, a business or building going from $1M to 900k threatens to wipe people out. They'll have to sell other assets, even at a lower price, b/c they need assets to collateralize their debts. (i.e. they get a margin call)
        Step 4: The propagates among all the over-leveraged market participants, all forced to sell assets.
        Step 5: This shake-up in valuations, with buildings that used to be $1M now a few years later worth $500k, spills into the market for goods and services. Someone who was successfully making tablet computers now sees customers delaying purchases b/c of uncertainty. They order fewer printed circuit boards and employ people fewer hours. This leads to unused production capacity.
        Step 6: Central banks pursue a very loose monetary policy to try to get the productive capacity utilized again.
        Question 1: Is that right? If so, what's the next step. Does the loose monetary policy work but lead to yet another asset price roller coaster two decades in the future?
        Question 2: Why does loose monetary policy lead to more leverage? Wouldn't market participants use the same leverage if money were tight and short-term rates were high?
        Question 3: Why doesn't the loose policy in step 1 lead to inflation in goods and services? In school the tell you people will feel safe raising prices or asking for a raise. They get that extra money and are less price conscious, leading to an inflationary spiral. Why is this inflation confined to assets only??

        Thanks for posting this analysis.
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        • Posted by 9 years, 3 months ago
          Monetary policy isn't really monetary policy; it's debt policy. Loose debt policy entails monetizing government debt with central bank debt, both essentially made up out of thin air, which suppresses interest rates. It is the lower rates than what would prevail in the absence of a central bank that leads to more leverage (question 2). Speculators are certainly not insensitive to the market interest rate, it is essentially the price of the raw material--money--for their speculation (question 2). Per question 1, central bank policy to promote debt never "works," it merely puts more fiat debt in the system. That can lead to more asset price roller coastering, but that depends on the level of debt already in the system. An economy can become saturated with debt, where additional debt has little effect on production, investment, or prices and is basically inert. That is the state we reached last year. Per question 3, that is why additional fiat debt does not always lead to inflation in goods and services; it does not spur additional demand if consumers and businesses are trying to reduce debt, not take on more. As we are finding out now, it doesn't always lead to inflation in financial asset prices, either. It is a simplification, but think of debt as a factor of production, speculation, and consumption that has diminishing marginal returns that can go to zero or negative. That is what we have seen since the last financial crisis; and the marginal return on debt is now clearly negative. It is a product of governments and central banks not allowing markets to clear by injecting massive amounts of fiat debt into the system, supposedly to save it. It's like curing alcoholism with binge drinking. Having shot their wad during the last financial crisis, governments and central banks are now impotent to address the gathering debt deflation, and this time markets will clear at much lower prices. It will get ugly.
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          • Posted by CircuitGuy 9 years, 3 months ago
            " that is why additional fiat debt does not always lead to inflation in goods and services; it does not spur additional demand if consumers and businesses are trying to reduce debt, not take on more."
            In the recession of 08-09 I heard the explanation that loose monetary policy didn't lead to inflation because it was offset by financial industry deleveraging. This, on the surface, sounds like a good thing. We want a stable currency. If the financial industry deleverages, it's fewer dollars chasing nearly the same goods and service. So the theory goes that the central bank can compensate with loose policy to ensure we don't have too few dollars chasing the goods and service in the ecnomy, which leads to unused productive capacity.
            Your claim is that loose monetary by its nature encourages leverage. I think you'd say those commentators I heard are assuming there's good leverage and bad leverage, but expanding the money supply to deal with delveraging, you'd say, is giving a drink to cure a hangover.
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        • Posted by $ MichaelAarethun 9 years, 3 months ago
          A way to answer your own question is put yourself in the place of the other alternatives.
          If you can figure the assets segment out you can figure it from the other points of reference. That ability is obvious.
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  • Posted by $ Olduglycarl 9 years, 3 months ago
    Collapse or not...wally street seems always to find or invent a way.
    By all accord, the system should collapse...however, we didn't have a plug to pull in the past nor did the government, (fed) backup the system either.
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  • Posted by $ jdg 9 years, 3 months ago
    This is just another writer discovering the truths in The Great Reckoning. (Paraphrasing:) Any attempt, however well-meaning, to stop the ill effects of an asset bubble unwinding (which is what a market crash always is) by propping up victims only prolongs the agony. The bubble cannot end until the people who mis-invested sell the assets, and they will only sell when forced to. Only then can other people put the assets back into productive use.
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