Crisis Progress Report (12): Zero Will be King, by Robert Gore
At this point, assuming your selling is done and you sit mostly in cash, with perhaps a little on the side for speculative shorts, the best investment advice is to be patient. It will probably take appreciably more opinion-making market downside before prominent permabulls switch to the bearish camp, the mainstream media proclaims a long running bear market, and the news is filled with dire headlines. The gloom will get so thick and one-sided that when nobody expects it, a rally will ignite. It won’t be a one-day or one-week wonder, either, it will span a month or two and will recoup a substantial percentage of the losses. The last crisis is instructive. The S&P index topped in October of 2007 and dropped for five months until a rally began, in March of 2008, that retraced half the drop. Such rallies are almost universally disbelieved when they start and almost universally embraced as the beginning of a new bull market when they end. Bullish belief had been restored in May of 2008 when that rally ended. The rest of the year was tears.
This is an excerpt. For the full article, please click the link above.
This is an excerpt. For the full article, please click the link above.
When you start writing about overshoot, though, I think some of this is just lower-frequency Gaussian noise, and when we go back and look at charts later our mind tries to impose order on a random process. I agree if you know other market participants are doing this technical analysis, it makes sense to take technicals into consideration.
At the end you say the real fundamental trend is a lowering of asset valuation due to monetary policy. I know there's something to this, but I still don't get it. It seems to me that monetary policy could causing inflation or deflation, but I would expect the typical P/E ratio for a stock, rental property, or whatever to be unaffected.
Step 1: Loose monetary policy leads people to use more leverage seeking returns.
Step 2: The leverage leads to high P/E ratios in real estate and business.
Step 3: Some little blip causes people to question future earnings growth. This suggests a slightly lower P/E. would be appropriate. The trouble is with all that leverage, a business or building going from $1M to 900k threatens to wipe people out. They'll have to sell other assets, even at a lower price, b/c they need assets to collateralize their debts. (i.e. they get a margin call)
Step 4: The propagates among all the over-leveraged market participants, all forced to sell assets.
Step 5: This shake-up in valuations, with buildings that used to be $1M now a few years later worth $500k, spills into the market for goods and services. Someone who was successfully making tablet computers now sees customers delaying purchases b/c of uncertainty. They order fewer printed circuit boards and employ people fewer hours. This leads to unused production capacity.
Step 6: Central banks pursue a very loose monetary policy to try to get the productive capacity utilized again.
Question 1: Is that right? If so, what's the next step. Does the loose monetary policy work but lead to yet another asset price roller coaster two decades in the future?
Question 2: Why does loose monetary policy lead to more leverage? Wouldn't market participants use the same leverage if money were tight and short-term rates were high?
Question 3: Why doesn't the loose policy in step 1 lead to inflation in goods and services? In school the tell you people will feel safe raising prices or asking for a raise. They get that extra money and are less price conscious, leading to an inflationary spiral. Why is this inflation confined to assets only??
Thanks for posting this analysis.
In the recession of 08-09 I heard the explanation that loose monetary policy didn't lead to inflation because it was offset by financial industry deleveraging. This, on the surface, sounds like a good thing. We want a stable currency. If the financial industry deleverages, it's fewer dollars chasing nearly the same goods and service. So the theory goes that the central bank can compensate with loose policy to ensure we don't have too few dollars chasing the goods and service in the ecnomy, which leads to unused productive capacity.
Your claim is that loose monetary by its nature encourages leverage. I think you'd say those commentators I heard are assuming there's good leverage and bad leverage, but expanding the money supply to deal with delveraging, you'd say, is giving a drink to cure a hangover.
If you can figure the assets segment out you can figure it from the other points of reference. That ability is obvious.
By all accord, the system should collapse...however, we didn't have a plug to pull in the past nor did the government, (fed) backup the system either.
though it was most likely caused by troubles put
on employers by Obamacare, I don't know the
real specifics behind what happened at the plant.
As far as I am concerned, the unemployment rate is 100%.
http://nortonsafe.search.ask.com/web?... ?
Recommended keyword from a 50-something woman who has used this tool...