He has powerful arguments, esp wrt recent lack of negative correlation between stocks and bonds. I am concerned we're heading toward another mini-crisis if bonds fall price (yields rise), causing the govt to cut spending and/or raise taxes to service debt. If they fixed the budget deficit now during an expansion, maybe the expansion would continue longer than usual and the markets would follow the rule of stocks rising when bonds fall. If the mini-crisis hits during a recession, it will be harder. They should be fixing the budget *right now*.. actually three years ago. The economy today feels like 1999 to me, but with lower interest rates. By that bit of guessing, we are one year away from a stock market peak and three years away from stocks being *half* their current value.

I still have no exposure to precious metals, but I may be adding some soon. The reason is this expansion has been running for 4 years, whatever's left of it may be priced into stocks already, and bonds have insanely low yields (unlike the last two expansions I lived through).

I still remember, though, seeing an article in '95, which I can't find in an Internet search, titled "Stock are up. Rates are down. Now what?" It's possible (unlikely) that we're living in '95 and not '99. This feels like '99 to me though.