Shocker on CBS: Earth 'Not As Warm...As the Climate Models Predicted'
Well, it seems that not everyone is sure that "climate change" is really "climate change". Maybe they just need to admit they really do not have enough data to say, and approach it from some other direction if it is really a concern. Not being a scientist, I can be open to a discussion about why increased CO2 may be a problem, since it also goes in hand with wiping out the worlds largest carbon sink (amazon basin forests). There may be issues that could need addressing, just not at the point of a spear, screaming in rage and fear..take note climate change aficionados..your approach needs some tweaks.
Regardless of whether or not you believe that humans can actually change climate, let us assume that the nation decides to undertake a Manhattan style project to move to clean energy as fast as possible (this, of course, assumes the unending stream of agencies that make life miserable can be swept aside). The Earth's power supply currently comes 70% from carbon-based fuels, 20% from nuclear sources, 7% from hydroelectric, and 3% from "clean" sources (wind, solar, geothermal). An effort to accelerate the installation of clean energy will require the use of enormous amounts of energy for development, construction, transportation, installation, and distribution. Since most energy currently is supplied by carbon fuels, more of those fuels must be expended in the near term to meet this need. Efforts to reduce the use of carbon fuels will therefore make it impossible to move to clean fuels faster, and will actually slow any effort to increase those power sources.
I would like to see serious investigation of thorium reactors. They were a working option back in the 60's but not followed up on because we WANTED plutonium. Now, not so much.
If you really want low CO2 (and why do you hate plants?) go nuclear. It works.
The whole Copenhagen Consensus Center platform is directed at doing an end-run around the power structure that is at the heart of global warming - and its real raison d'etre.
Jan
England deforested their country because wood was abundant; when the woods were gone, they developed coal (with a boost, literally, from development of the steam engine to pump water out of mines.)
When the coal was depleted, they turned to oil, hydro and wind.
You can advocate 'jumping to the Next Big Thing,' but if it's not commercially economical, you ain't gonna convert enough people into "believers" to make dat happen!
But good luck trying!
Currently, given current technology, approximate 15x more energy in creating these sources, that is ever "saved" by them. The energy and pollution costs to create one hybrid auto battery is well above that, not counting the hazmat suits you need to clean it up after an accident.
The is no doubt that the cleaner the energy is the better, pollution is bad, however the discussion is on 'MAN-CAUSED" global warming/climate change which is a bunch of hooey.
Changing the topic is not appropriate in a discussion on Man-Caused Climate Change. That is what the liberals do.
https://www.google.com/search?sourceid=n...
Enjoy!
Solar cells are a not ready yet, and wind is a joke. Nuclear is a great transition, but imaginations stand in the way of solutions.
We have blown untold sums of socialist monies on what the cartoon-watching crowd consider "green" technologies.
Mixing agriculture and energy sciences hasn't worked out so well. While the theoretical BTU production of oils like canola looks good on paper, the raw product isn't a perfect substitute for regular diesel, and the added post production processing is what breaks the bank.
Ethanol is a putrid substitute, allowed because the toxic aldehydes that are a combustion product, while harmful to people, aren't in the government list of pollutants. Like all of the "clean" energy sources, ethanol production is heavily subsidized. There's a good reason Brazil is reverting to gasoline, now that it's found a rich oil supply off its own shores.
My point was if one wants renewables, one should want vegetable oil based diesel engines. (Assuming one is not an ignorant zealot, seeking solar, wind or wave power because it is "cool") Economies for all other forms pale by comparison. Of course fossil fuels are cheaper, but not by that much. Vegetable oil is ~$4/gal, not too far behind diesel, and you don't need to desulfurize it.
The problem with vegetable oils is the injectors, particularly the new direct injectors. They rely on the much lower viscosity of diesel fuel to get good atomization. However, there is no problem with a diesel engine running on straight vegetable oil (SVO), if the injector is tweaked for it.
If one was to really believe fossil fuel needed replacement, an investment in this technology is far superior to $400M in solar panels, or worse yet, wind turbines.
Ethanol has had an impact across the agricultural spectrum, and pumping up vegetable oil production to divert even enough to be used as a supplement will likely have a negative impact on everyone's grocery bill as well. Your figure of $4/gal tells me that the market isn't going to induce farmers to get into the game against diesel at $2.50/gal, and I don't think any in Galt's Gulch would be screaming for a government subsidy.
Not sure about being able to produce enough. That is probably something to look into.
Still think you are still missing my point. I am NOT advocating replacing diesel with SVO. I am simply pointing out its technical feasibility and low cost / very modest technical hurdles to implement, at least relative to any other renewable. My point is that the renewables zealots refuse to advocate simple options because they are not sexy, in favor of wind turbine, solar farms and electric cars. None of which is practical in a comprehensive manner.
They are just a bunch of argumentative hand-wringing zealots who want to claim everything the present establishment has is bad to get their undeserving hands on the steering wheel.
We need wind power - what about the birds
Hydroelectric is clean - what about the fishes and rivers. Release the Waters!
Solar is the answer - Don't cut down any trees for the farms, and you cannot shade the desert!
All rely on electric vehicles for transportation, with an order of magnitude battery problem, and zero infrastructure. You point out the need to change diesel engines. Yes; however, SVO-diesel does not require any substantive infrastructure change to fuel distribution, the grid, the vehicles or how we operate the vehicles. Again, I am not advocating to do this, only the ignorance of the zealots pining away for esoteric options.
As I recall, the glitch in SVO fuel was engines that wouldn't start at low temperatures, even with the proper injectors. The solution was relatively simple: carry a small amount of diesel to get the engine started, and use engine heat to warm the SVO fuel lines.
A more exotic approach to the diesel substitution idea is the use of butanol (heavy alcohol) as an additive. Even though of SVO-like viscosity, butanol allows engine start even in temperatures that are difficult for straight diesel. Butanol is practically the ideal fuel, with energy content near that of gasoline, and raising both the octane and cetane numbers, making it a friendly additive for either gasoline or diesel engines. The challenge is getting production cost down.
Will Butanol run in both Otto cycle and a Diesel cycles, or is it more of an additive? I am unfamiliar with its use in internal combustion engines, but understand what it is.
Free stream turbines seem like a pretty good idea. The waterways are very well understood and mapped, making the power predictable, and fresh water is a lot more benign than seawater. Water density makes it a whole lot better get power out than wind. A 1 MW free stream turbine is ~9ft in dia., depending on the water speed. A 1 MW wind turbine is enormous. We did some work designing generators and/or converters for Free Flow Power and two other free flow turbine companies a few years ago (names escape me). They all seem to have run into capital problems. Still a lot of equipment for utility-scale power. Not sure if any municipalities have looked into it. Their price point is consumer-use, not generation-level, and a lot easier to show a return.
Hopefully, some of the ideas like free stream river power and small modular reactors will get a push from a renewed interest in distributed power. My military background made me uncomfortable with the idea of an ever broadening, linked power system, as that makes the entire nation vulnerable to sabotage. It looks like some people in the power industry have the same concerns, and are now leaning more in favor of a more distributed power network.
SMRs are a good idea. I wish people could understand how many operating hours the Navy has on reactors, and how few incidents (none), even after a 688 ran into an undersea mountain at speed. .
Well, la dee da. How about that?
Here in Alabama, the EPA recently closed down some plants that make electricity by burning coal.
What does the EPA want us to do?
Gag due to the EPA's man-made heat while jobless?
Oh, I forgot. I never believed in man-made global warming.
As for "climate change," I've heard of massive volcanic eruptions temporarily disrupting "the weather" and ruining crops due to clouds and cold for a year or two.
The climate (that does gradually change) generally snaps back to its current normal after the volcanic clouds clear.
I do believe that's history.
If you scroll around on the Google map link you'll find me close to Birmingham on the right.
I have not read your novels. So what kind of settings do you need? For landscapes, Alabma has a bit of a Southeast state's everything. It's hilly in the north and flat past Montgomery to the Gulf.
City scenes? The Southside of Birmingham is hip. Nearby Bessemer is a run-down mess.
Plenty of Mayberrys down here.
Centreville in Bibb (dry) County where I was stuck too long back in the 70s should still be one.
There's a lot of great river scenery especially north of where I live.
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Pleasa...
Oh, I like this map better than what I thought I had.
I spent three days at Camp Cosby by the Coosa River with my kid and others as a supervising adult on a school outing back in the 90s. Nothing looked new there but it wasn't closed.
Creating a fictional camp may be an option for you.
Thank God for that blessed rock!
There's a Coosa River White Water Festival.
Below is a helpful start for Bama white water research.
http://www.bing.com/search?q=alabama+whi...
The sand was sort of off-white in color.
The rock that may have saved my life was where I fell to the right when my right leg got sucked in just over the knee.
Those could not be just loose rocks on top of the sand.
They must have been projections from a rock mantle with sediment sand on top of it.
At least that's my theory about an incident way back in the 70s.
Yikes! I just looked at the start of my last post.
"Of long heard of--" That's "I've," of course.
One day there may be spell checkers that catch typos of bad grammar.
California had better be thinking more about water instead of `Climate Change' right now. We up here in the Northwest do not have an abundance to pipeline down there because we don't collect all our rain. We too depend on snow melt. Our water problems are more about the people that decide when and how much to dump to prevent flooding if we get a big snowfall. This year they made the correct decision not to dump it.
If NASA did in fact secretly endorse this 'slip' it could be the start of the disintegration of the academic-political-warmist-block.
Jan
I checked the NASA solar physics site to double check on something for a comment in this thread and was surprised to see the Maunder Minimum so prominent. "The connection between solar activity and terrestrial climate is an area of on-going research."
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/Sunspo...
People die of the cold. In the United States today, people do not die of the heat--at least, not in such numbers.
Jan
Facts have absolutely nothing to do with it.
Bayesian analysis is somewhat controversial because the validity of the result depends on how valid the prior distribution is, and this cannot be assessed statistically.
Every global warming model, and analysis, I have been exposed to in personal research for not only myself but for college papers I have had to write over the past two years, indicates that Bayesian Analysis is the approach used to “prove” Man Caused Global Warming.
1st It is important to note that temperature measurements which include C02 have only been going on for the past 40 – 50 years depending on who you ask.
Next we have only been documenting temperatures for approximately 170 years.
Considering the earth is estimated at 4.5 billion years old, this is too small of a statistical sample to come to any conclusion, unless you use Bayesian Analysis.
Now to explain how this form of analysis works I will give a layman’s approach to this.
First is to formulate a theory.
Theory:
Water boils in 10 minutes.
Experiment 1:
Place 1 gallon of water in standard stainless steel pot.
Turn on burner, and time until water boils, when water boils look at your clock.
Result: 5 minutes.
Ignore Experiment, decrease heat on the burner, and time:
Result: 10 minutes.
Theory Proven.
Next someone says what if you use 5 gallons and a copper pot.
Theory:
Water boils in 10 minutes.
Experiment 2: Place 5 Gallons of water in copper pot on stove.
Turn on burner time and wait. Result 20 minutes.
Ignore result, increase heat to max and re-time.
Result Water boils in 10 minutes.
Theory proven.
So we now extrapolate:
Theory:
Water Boils in 10 minutes and our experimentation we document proves this beyond a shadow of a doubt.
Experiment 1, 1 gallon of water stainless steel pot burner on low, water boils in 10 minutes.
Experiment 2, 5 gallons of water copper pot burner on max, water boils in 10 minutes.
Theory proven...
THIS IS HOW GLOBAL WARMING SCIENCE WORKS!!!!
However, that data shows that many of the recent past eras were warmer than we are today; many were colder. The theory that industrial CO2 makes that much difference to Earth is just another version of geocentricity - we want to think that we are more important than we are.
Jan, important enough
Nice chart of calculated temperature from core samples dating back 800,000 years.
Interesting that about 150,000 years ago it was warmer than now...and we are on the declining side. Big question, how much Human industry exists 150,000 years ago? Not sure they were driving Hummers around then.
Jan
In any event, humans will adapt, adjust and overcome.
Never do you see an article about the benefits of global warming -- which would probably outweigh the negatives, at least for a few degrees. Warmer is better.
Sadly, it's probably going to be cooler.
rationaloptimist and wattsupwiththat both blog about the benefits of warming.
As you say, "Sadly it's probably going to be cooler." Our solar system is wiggling through the galactic plane right now - which seems to have triggered ice ages before.
Jan
When sunspot activity is low, temperatures seem to be lower. No one is quite sure why, since the measurable intensity change isn't sufficient to change Svensmark postulates that lower activity allows more cosmic rays to strike the Earth and that that increases clouds and reflectivity. A recent experiment at Cern supports that.
Solar cycle 24 is the weakest in 100 years. So if the solar theory is valid we may be seeing 20-30 years of cooling -- which would actually BE bad.
I have evaluated the present and historical data sets and I find it to be very meager and hopelessly inadequate to substantiate their claims. Please look at my several posts on LinkedIn and my website www.texanhomeenergy,com
Man Caused Climate Change is a fraudulent science designed to implement the governmental control of the energy sectors of our economy. Cap and Trade will give the government control of energy. If it succeeds we will have lost the last remaining vestige of our freedom.
http://www.texanhomeenergy.com/
you are probably aware of the contrast between the homes of Al Gore in Tennessee and George W Bush in Crawford Tx.
The principle we need to follow is, "Extraordinary demands on other people require extraordinary proof." (With apologies to David Hume.)
Is an average of several temperatures itself a temperature?
I think that it is a false concept that is being sold to us for some purpose, perhaps as an article of faith for identifying and destroying nonbelievers.
Anyone have further thoughts?
The agenda is for governments to gain control of the energy sector.
It seems that much of the temperature data is adjusted or selected to give the desired result. Hence they have plenty of data. Too much, in fact, so much that they throw away the "bad" data. Oh, and they sifted through about 10,000 scientists to find their agreeable 76.
They looked at the abstracts of several thousand papers which contained phrases like "global warming" and "climate change". They tried to categorize them in terms of whether they indicated man was involved.
Only about 34% of the cherry picked papers indicated human causation in the abstract. Of that 34%, 97% (yes, there's the 97%, indicated that it was caused by humans).
So it was 97% of papers, not scientists and they were cherry picked.
From the study you could also accurately say that: "In a survey of papers with the terms 'climate change' and 'global warming' only 33% of the abstracts expressed an opinion that it was caused by humans."
One of the reasons I keep an eye on the icer news is that there is some indication that the Younger Dryas occurred very suddenly: Perhaps as little as 3 years, certainly as little as 30 years. (I think we are talking about a 15 degree drop in temp.) So while I am not an icer, if I am wrong and I have made a bad decision I will be very quickly in deep kimchi.
Jan
She is currently working on a project to request proof-of-concept implementation of any plans intended to shut down our access to energy.
Jan
I get all the LDS stuff I need from the pairs of well-dressed young men who are on a mission. My late father-in-law went to Lutheran seminary, and often had great fun with them, examining Scripture in Hebrew or Greek, and showing them the portions of the KJV from which Smith cribbed parts of the Book of Mormon.
New site "Real Science" - much better!
Jan
I believe it was Will Rodgers that said, "Everyone is talking about the weather, but no one is doing anything about it!"
Now the progressives have figured out what to do with weather, TAX it.
like East Anglia, it has been done. . this whole area
is a big worldwide scam to tear down the first world
to do a Cloward-Piven reshuffle of power, IMHO. -- j
But…
1 gallon of gasoline weighs around 6 pounds or about the same as a gallon of water or, 2 average sized textbooks or, a basket full of kittens. The United States uses 375,000,000 gallons per day or times 6lb. is 2,250,000,000 pounds of gasoline. Since I spent 18 years teaching science I keep thinking about all that weight on top of me. The principle of mass conservation implies that mass can’t be created or destroyed so in a reaction starting materials must be equal to the mass of the products. So by converting 2,250,000,000Lbs of liquid gasoline into gasoline combustion gas vapor, give or take the efficiency of the burn, the result is 2,250,000,000 pounds of gas vapor into the atmosphere. Or 1,125,000 tons or around the weight equivalent of 3 Empire State Buildings or roughly 2 Pentagons (not including the hot air) Around 5,500,000lbs is the most humans have ever been able to lift and that was by Industrial Steel Inc. (USA) and Buffalo Hydraulic (USA) on 23 January 2004.
That 2,250,000l,000bs times 365 days equals 821.25 billion lbs of gas vapor into the atmosphere. Small compared to the weight of Lake Erie, 762,000,000,000,000lbs. In 50 years however the gasoline vapor weighs more than Lake Tahoe, which is only a mere 39 trillion pounds compared to the 41 trillion pounds of gas vapor from the gasoline emissions.
Now in conclusion, if you are driving south from San Francisco on Highway 101 at evening rush hour leaving the elevated area around South San Francisco you can see cars bumper to bumper all the way to San Jose. After you have been teaching science to kids all day and there you are stuck in that traffic you ask yourself, “Why aren’t I being crushed?” and allow your eyes to grab a glimpse of the thickening smog.
:)
rainforest creates zillions of tons of O2 which we
breathe up here, yes? -- j
I find the ones on the Milankovitch data to be the most interesting... they show some interesting correlation with cyclical phenomena that keep lining up VERY nicely... much better than anything Gore or any other Warmites claim.
a. bogus according to the original source.
b. intentionally so to gain more funding for research according to the same source,
c.Listed by one of the chief originators as not to be taken as factual without a huge amount of additional study.
How much did Al Bore contribute?
Jan