Harsco-Fairmont has a huge contract for bed and rail maintenance across the continent.
Any place you have deep waterways in proximity to rail bed you shall have maintenance issues, especially in the snow belt. This is the same reason for road restrictions on heavy equipment during winter months .... frost heave and cavitation.
A week ago I cut up some heavy gage rail for a friend. On the interior bearing surface, that which the rim of the wheel rides against, were micro cracks that did not reach to the surface of the material. They were in a vertical orientation, shear, to the load applied. Another section I cut was a severe delamination across the same cross section.
This is just the physical rail. Ties and beds are equally subject to wear and tear.

When one of my senior design student groups presented on vinyl acetate monomer, the molecule leaked in East Palestine, OH, I couldn't help but think of John Galt.

Who is John Galt?

In answer to your post, I called a friend of 20 years. He was a cell coordinator for 5 FBI rail investigation teams.
Less than 1% of these incidents are known tampering. We agreed upon a 3% that were questionable due to the handling of required document control spelled out in national operation regulations. When Jim started his work there were some 300 pages of regulations. When he finished there were some 900 pages, and speculatively today, some 1300. Re-certification for engineers and controllers is required every 3 years.
Add the logistics of physical maintenance, which I posted above, and you have a recipe for disasters .... literally.

My personal experience is based upon working with the engineers from Harsco/Fairmont in developing parts and equipment for their rail maintenance rigs.

So, non-accident? Probabilities are low. I lived in this area for more than 40 years. My grandfather and dad both worked the rail running this corridor. An interesting tidbit from my FBI guy. Freight rail is allowed when up to 5 inches of water is over the top of the rail.